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PLTR DD - brain cells required if you are an ape!

PLTR DD - brain cells required if you are an ape!
Hello fellow retards
I know these are difficult times for this sub and it’s almost impossible to post something solid which is not about the current meme stocks.
Instead of jerking to some porn i did some research on PLTR and want to share my DD with you. This might be a longer text for your love dopamine level so maybe you should grab some your Adderall before.
The following text might you give your eyes aids since English isn’t my native language. I will try my best.
Palantir as a Company – the beginnings
PLTR was founded by some people and one of them is Peter Thiel who worked alongside with our holy papa Elon at PayPal. As a payment-service they had concerns about money laundering and founded PLTR to tackle this issue early. The CIA also funded PLTR (they are always funding stuff like this – Siri as example). This actually might be the reason why people think that PLTR is a company which aggregates data and do data analysis for the government….but this is not accurate and not correct at all if you see the big picture. I will explain this point later.
You retard still reading? Nice here some rocket emoji’s to pump your dopamine and keep you happy. 🚀🚀🚀
Let’s start with the DD
First of all my POV is looking for a midterm to long term investment in PLTR. My valuation considers PLTRs current state and predicting from now on for the next few years.

  • 1. The Management
Before I start with the product I rather start with the management. You can sell the nicest thing in the world. I can guarantee you that the product definitely won’t be considered as the nicest thing after a while if you have a shitty management (Intel). With Peter Thiel on the leaderboard we got a competent asshole and CEO is Alex carp (co-founder) Peter Thiel is well known and Alex Karp is one of us. He yolod his heritage into some business and become a chad. Seriously tho, I trust Peter and if Peter holds on Alex since Decades so do I. Peter proved so many times how cunning he is and showed how to pick adapt problems early and create solutions.

  • 2. PLTR Business model/ products
Before we understand how important PLTRs products are we have to understand that we are simpeltons who don’t have any business with PLTRs. We create data. We don’t fuck with it. We creating with using our phones or working in the office. Only a few of us may working with accumulated big data. PLTRs customers’ base isn’t neighbor Joe or Aunt Nancy. The products they offer are not even for midcap companies they are more designed for whole industries and governments. That’s the reason why their products aren’t so tangible for many people.
PLTR basically offers systems to big companies/governments which import their data into these systems. PLTR doesn’t sends workers to the client to collect data and analyse it. They sell platforms. They got 2 Products called “Gotham” and “Foundry” You may think wtf is this guy talking about? Let me explain it in 2 examples:
First example is Syria with Gotham. It was impossible in the country to know who the good guys are and who the bad ones are. I know u muricans only know yourself and the rest of the world is the “rest of the world” for you. But this wasn’t so simple in Syria you had many factions with different intentions and some of them were allies and some of them were enemies. The lack of information or the ability of recognizing and sorting these information’s are crucial in a war. PLTR solved the struggle with creating a map which provided resilient information for the marines so they can operate safely. Civil problems over there could also be fixed.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/04/palantir-using-big-data-to-solve-big-humanitarian-crises/
Actually what the John Hopkins University does with the covid numbers and the map, is some sort of what PLTR offering with their solutions. There are rumors that the tracking of Covid and the vaccination will be done by PLTR.
In their S1 Form PLTR describes it this way
“Gotham, our first software platform, was constructed for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. They were hunting for needles not in one, but in thousands of haystacks. And they did not have the software they needed to do their jobs. In Afghanistan and Iraq, soldiers were mapping networks of insurgents and makers of roadside bombs by hand. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, and helps U.S. and allied military personnel find what they are looking for.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm#rom904406_11
The second example is about “Foundry” and it’s directly from the S1 File of PLTR (page 121)
“An Airbus A350, for example, has five million parts and is built by hundreds of teams that are spread across four countries and more than eight factories. Companies routinely struggle to manage let alone make sense of the data involved in large projects. Foundry was built for them. The platform transforms the ways in which organizations interact with information by creating a central operating system for their data.”
Both of these systems solving big issues with less effort. The arms industry as example would took billions for drones and stuff in Syria for the same job. The important fact is that PLTR does not spend so much resources for new clients they only have to provide access and support for their services and the client feeding the “machine” with data.
The key point is to understand that PLTR benefits very huge from economy of scales. This is very important since their costs for additional revenue is basically flat while the profits growing exorbitant with new customers. They offer a software and platforms and not kind of services where they need man power. All they do is working on their platforms and improving it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palantir-ipo-breakingviews-idUSKCN26E3I2


  • 3. PLTRs big issue during the last decade
Peter Thiel was a great supporter of Trump and funded his elections campaign. The market thought that when trump wins then PLTR will get all the government (especially military) contracts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/peter-thiel-bet-donald-trump-wins-big.html
But this didn’t happened. Peter got cucked by the huge authority apparatus in pentagon. These dudes loves bureaucracy and they do it for a good reason. If you retire from your job in pentagon you usually get a high paid luxurious position at Lockheed, Raytheon or Bae Systems to make additional free money for your retirement. Many thousand people working in pentagon just to select and buy stuff for the government. They spending billions of dollars for purchases and then PLTR came around and said like „look guys we can do this job for a few millions instead billions“. Of course the arms industry was pissed and the pentagon boomers helped them out. PLTR got constantly scammed from boomers and didn’t get the contracts. This was also the „swamp „trump was talking about.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/inside-palantir-s-war-with-the-u-s-army
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/03/27/palantir-trump-army-military-procurement.html
A fun fact to this matter: Before James Mattis got summoned as the Defense Secretary of the USA he was a general in Afghanistan. He ordered services from PLTR despite the fact the pentagon was against it. But the marines praised PLTRs software and valued it over the trash they used to know from the defense/arms industry.
Processing img 2os8izwwe4h61...
https://www.military.com/defensetech/2013/07/01/special-forces-marines-embrace-palantir-software
Even with a James Mattis as the defense secretary, trump as president and regardless that PLTR does it better and cheaper than the arms industry, it wasn’t possible for PLTR to get the government contracts.
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/11/palantir-defense-jim-mattis-inner-circle-239373
https://fortune.com/longform/palantir-pentagon-trump/
How it’s ended? Well Peter’s wife doesn’t have a boyfriend because Peter is the fucking boyfriend of their wifes. All ended at the court and PLTR won. All this injustice ended at the court. The judgements on these cases are true circuit breakers for PLTR. Not only because PLTR spent shit tons of money for law suits. The lawsuits were perfect uppercut hits on the arms industry and they ended some fraudulent behaviors and „best practices „in the government
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2016/10/31/judge-rules-in-favor-of-palantir-in-lawsuit-against-us-army/
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/03/29/palantir-who-successfully-sued-the-army-just-won-a-major-army-contract/
PLTR will profit from a Biden who wants to decrease the military expenditures. They will get the job done and at the same time the costs will go down. With the recent judgements the door looks open.

  • 4. Valuation problems
I could spam some multiplication on revenue or even a DCF but I think it’s not necessary. Expect the costs of research and development (maybe marketing) the costs of PLTR stood mostly flat in the last quarters. It’s a growth stock and the pricing is mostly in the perspective of PLTR. This is actually all we need to know that the revenue increases while the costs staying mostly flat. Check out the balance sheets at page 12 on the S Form 1.
Let’s talk about the market. The whole market seems overpriced but it isn’t tbh. Due to the low cost of capital there is no alternative than to throwing your money on stocks or on real estate. There is nothing with a solid interest rate around (not even in emerging markets). At the stock exchange like in 70s, the companies had to offer a return, a perspective which should be more attractive as putting your money on a saving account with 8% interests without risks. These times are gone since the 2000s. So before people discuss insane valuation they should check out the fiscal and economical policies.
Now back to PLTR and why the price is difficult to set (cheap imo). First of all PLTR did a direct listing without an investment bank for their share offerings. Its lacking of the valuation which they usually would get through such a process.
PLTR wanted to do IPO with Morgan Stanley but it was mess.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/morgan-stanley-s-long-romance-of-palantir-pays-off-as-ipo-nears
Morgan Stanley proved themselves many times as stubborn communists when it comes to valuations. I mean you guys remember their disgusting price targets for tesla like 100$ post split or stuff like that.
These guys are very focused on numbers and I know it’s difficult to price in the potential and perspectives. But you can’t ignore these things for a fundamental valuation. If you want to consider these things in the price you have to understand the business of the company.
This ended that one team at Morgan Stanley valuated PLTR with 5 billion while another team thought they worth 40 billion.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/11/14/palantir-ipo-valuation-morgan-stanley.html
How is this difference possible and why is this happening? Because people don’t understand what they are valuating. This happened a lot in the last decade because the decision makers in these banks and many analyst don’t have any idea which metrics they should use on companies like that. They are using the metrics from classical industries on new business. They freaked out when Facebook was valued with 100 billion as IPO. Same with Twitter and in the last years it was Tesla. They said apple going to tank every damn year in the last decade. I honor Warren Buffet so much since he has the dignity to realize that he don’t understands something but at the same time he sees the potential and the trend. That’s why he hired 2 Chads who bought Snowflake for him. The transformation and the generation change didn’t happened yet. That’s why they try to use the metrics from Caterpillar on Tesla.
Guys the whole market is mooning with the cheap liquidity. Pennystocks and zombie companies transforming into billion dollar market cap companies. Facebook as IPO had a market cap of 104 billion back in 2012. At that time it wasn’t possible for Facebook to monetize their users with selling ads. They just paid 100 billion for the potential in more difficult market conditions.
Look at the IPOs like doordash, Bumble. I’m not going to call this a bubble. Just check out their business cases and use the metrics. Maybe its easier for people to understand Bumble and Doordash…
On page 12 of the S1 (balance sheet) Form you can already see the huge positive trends in PLTRs revenue and their costs. All this without all the positive events and contracts PLTR recently got.
PLTRs valuation is difficult and I think it’s miscalculated by pessimistic communist who don’t understand that their products are game changers for industries, governments and defense forces. Because of these points I think there is huge price potential for PLTR

  • 5. Risks for PLTR
Despite the general market risks PLTR mentions at page 29 of the S1 Form the competitors as the main risk: “We face intense competition in our markets, and we may lack sufficient financial or other resources to maintain or improve our competitive position.” The S1 Form didn’t aged well. Actually I don’t think that PLTR would have any trouble with offering new shares. Also with Peter Thiel as one of the founders the financial side should be stable.
As PLTR competitor people use to mention IBM. The boomers from IBM already surrendered with their Windows95 computers and decided to cooperate. The biggest threat would be big tech with big money like AMZN or APPL. You all now the stories about APPL and Spotify or AMZN and all the merchants. Even if the big players would step into PLTR markets it would be difficult for them since PLTRs products doesn’t rely on an Amazon store or on apple devices. PLTR is years ahead with their products.
I think the greatest risk (still) are the boomerish arms industry and all the boomers in pentagon and other authorities.
There are very corrupt infrastructures when it comes to decision making and assigning contracts. People fear changes but they can’t avoid the changes. With the recent judgements we can see a turn on the tables but the transformation will still take time. It’s a circuit breaker with an avalanche effect.
The risk factors on page 16 on the S1 form mostly aren’t relevant anymore. People complained that PLTR wasn’t profitable for 18 years. Well PLTR was never designed to be profitable and Alex Karp once said “love us or leave us alone”.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/09/09/palantir-ceo-makes-livestreamed-pitch-to-investors.html
But even this changed recently. PLTR became profitable in 2020 with 130,000,000§. Now the same people complaining about how high the stock price compared to the profits. Well just you wait.

  • 6. Conclusion and Outlook
If you still reading I have to admit that this was a lot text and i am sorry again about the lingo. Let’s connect the dots and bring this information to a point
  1. The boomer coalition in the pentagon and in the arms industry is taken down by PLTR. They will able to get the governments contracts and the classic arms/defense industry is no match for PLTR products. The judgements of lawsuits were catalyst and the effects should be already shown in the next earnings. These were such underrated events but I think there still will be some odds but PLTRs situation is much better as it was a time ago. The chains are off!
  2. Military expenditures rising worldwide

https://preview.redd.it/qqcv8vzee4h61.jpg?width=744&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=98d264f091b7ff80926038660f43c57b87fc8ef2
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion
With Bidens presidency we will see more disruptive technologies chosen by the government. Biden want to reduce the military expenditures. PLTR is able to provide better service for lower cost. Not only the recent judgements also the political change will help PLTR. Ironic if you remember that Peter supported Trump and getting his tendies from Biden.
  1. PLTR superior products profits hugely from economy of scales. They don’t have any significant costs when they acquire new customers. Making the big data usable for decisions making is already very important and step by step people realize that this issue growing fast. We creating everyday more data than we did yesterday and leaving the majority of it as trace and unstructured data. We don’t work with it but big Institutions does.
Here is the passage from the S1 and I fully agree with it:
“The systemic failures of government institutions to provide for the public — fractured healthcare systems, erosions of data privacy, strained criminal justice systems, and outmoded ways of fighting wars — will continue to require both the public and private sectors to transform themselves. We believe that the underperformance and loss of legitimacy of many of these institutions will only increase the speed with which they are required to change.”
  1. PLTRs value. The current situation of the market with tons of liquidity seems like a bubble. People don’t know what to do with the cheap capital and people throwing it even on meme pennystocks.
Facebook had his ipo back in 2012 during much harder market conditions as now. The valuation of Facebook was over 100 billion and people called it insanely overvalued. They did it because Facebook didn’t had a way to monetize their users (especially on mobile platforms). Facebook has a market cap of over 750 billion now and nobody calling it over valued.
A remember the recent examples? Bumble?! Bruuuh. Don’t get me wrong if you invested in Bumble but they have nothing special to offer and their business case can easily copied or improved by others. Its shows the current state of our market with the crazy liquidity that even zombie companies got astronomic valuations. Use these metrics on PLTR with great products, great management, low cost base and less odds as ever before….
PLTR price is wrong imo especially in this market and with PLTRs current state and perspective.
  1. Do you use PLTR? Me Neither! It’s not designed for us and we have to inform us about the success. PLTRs new contracts and their future are shining bright. With the settled lawsuits the sky is clear for PLTR. But their customer base is not only America. I’m not a murican and 3 weeks before I just find out that the police departments in our state using PLTR products. I don’t need to link endless evidences here since you can google it by yourself and see how many contracts PLTR recently got. Especially after the circuit breakers we talked about.
I have genuinely trust into Peter Thiel and Alex Karp that their will make the best of PLTRs potential. The odds getting removed and the demand for PLTR is increasing.
If all these information would priced in correctly we would have a share price of at least 60-70$. With upcoming and ongoing positive events PLTR share price should soar more..
What’s next?
Now we have earnings ahead and the lock up period ending.
For the earnings I think the number will be fine and keep up the positive trend on revenue with a disproportionately trend of the costs. The most important part will be guidance for 2021. We should listen closely and see if the magic is already happening.
The second event is the ending of the lock up period. You all remember the end of the lock up period of Nikola? Just 1-2 days after they announced they don’t got the GM deal? The stock tanked – for a good reason. You know the guy Trevor Milton.
But in PLTRs case everything is different. Despite the successful deals they got, does a guy who says “love us or leave us alone” sounds like someone who going to drop his shares at the first possibility? I don’t expect such a behavior from Alex Karp and neither from Peter Thiel. If some employees drop their shares it should be fine.
I would appreciate if the stock prices would go below 3ß. It would create a healthy bullish chart pattern and would be actually a nice discount to get in or stock up. I don’t think that the shares going to dump a lot because of this event. The earnings and the guidance are more important and the key events if you want to invest mid – long term.
What does all this means for you? Nothing! Please don’t do any market activity based on my DD. I’m just sharing my knowledge and looking for critics so I can reevaluate my theses. This is not a financial advice.
My hearts bleeding for all the GME holders. My last Reddit account got banned because I criticized “the pumpers”. In one of the comments I called the mods gay and got banned permanently (bye bye 20 k karma). If you are new to this please don’t do any decision based on this so I can sleep gladly.
I’m not well positioned and not trying to pump this stock. I have 70 shares and a CSP. Fair play and fuck all the bots and pump and dumper we recently got in the sub!
Leave an upvote if this post helped you. I need some more karma to be able to shitpost everywhere again!
submitted by PutsOnYourWife to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$PLTR DD have fun :)

$PLTR DD have fun :)
Hello fellow retards
I know these are difficult times for this sub and it’s almost impossible to post something solid which is not about the current meme stocks.
Instead of jerking to some porn i did some research on PLTR and want to share my DD with you. This might be a longer text for your love dopamine level so maybe you should grab some your Adderall before.
The following text might you give your eyes aids since English isn’t my native language. I will try my best.
Palantir as a Company – the beginnings
PLTR was founded by some people and one of them is Peter Thiel who worked alongside with our holy papa Elon at PayPal. As a payment-service they had concerns about money laundering and founded PLTR to tackle this issue early. The CIA also funded PLTR (they are always funding stuff like this – Siri as example). This actually might be the reason why people think that PLTR is a company which aggregates data and do data analysis for the government….but this is not accurate and not correct at all if you see the big picture. I will explain this point later.
You retard still reading? Nice here some rocket emoji’s to pump your dopamine and keep you happy.
Let’s start with the DD
First of all my POV is looking for a midterm to long term investment in PLTR. My valuation considers PLTRs current state and predicting from now on for the next few years.

  • 1. The Management
Before I start with the product I rather start with the management. You can sell the nicest thing in the world. I can guarantee you that the product definitely won’t be considered as the nicest thing after a while if you have a shitty management (Intel). With Peter Thiel on the leaderboard we got a competent asshole and CEO is Alex carp (co-founder) Peter Thiel is well known and Alex Karp is one of us. He yolod his heritage into some business and become a chad. Seriously tho, I trust Peter and if Peter holds on Alex since Decades so do I. Peter proved so many times how cunning he is and showed how to pick adapt problems early and create solutions.

  • 2. PLTR Business model/ products
Before we understand how important PLTRs products are we have to understand that we are simpeltons who don’t have any business with PLTRs. We create data. We don’t fuck with it. We creating with using our phones or working in the office. Only a few of us may working with accumulated big data. PLTRs customers’ base isn’t neighbor Joe or Aunt Nancy. The products they offer are not even for midcap companies they are more designed for whole industries and governments. That’s the reason why their products aren’t so tangible for many people.
PLTR basically offers systems to big companies/governments which import their data into these systems. PLTR doesn’t sends workers to the client to collect data and analyse it. They sell platforms. They got 2 Products called “Gotham” and “Foundry” You may think wtf is this guy talking about? Let me explain it in 2 examples:
First example is Syria with Gotham. It was impossible in the country to know who the good guys are and who the bad ones are. I know u muricans only know yourself and the rest of the world is the “rest of the world” for you. But this wasn’t so simple in Syria you had many factions with different intentions and some of them were allies and some of them were enemies. The lack of information or the ability of recognizing and sorting these information’s are crucial in a war. PLTR solved the struggle with creating a map which provided resilient information for the marines so they can operate safely. Civil problems over there could also be fixed.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/04/palantir-using-big-data-to-solve-big-humanitarian-crises/
Actually what the John Hopkins University does with the covid numbers and the map, is some sort of what PLTR offering with their solutions. There are rumors that the tracking of Covid and the vaccination will be done by PLTR.
In their S1 Form PLTR describes it this way
“Gotham, our first software platform, was constructed for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. They were hunting for needles not in one, but in thousands of haystacks. And they did not have the software they needed to do their jobs. In Afghanistan and Iraq, soldiers were mapping networks of insurgents and makers of roadside bombs by hand. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, and helps U.S. and allied military personnel find what they are looking for.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm#rom904406_11
The second example is about “Foundry” and it’s directly from the S1 File of PLTR (page 121)
“An Airbus A350, for example, has five million parts and is built by hundreds of teams that are spread across four countries and more than eight factories. Companies routinely struggle to manage let alone make sense of the data involved in large projects. Foundry was built for them. The platform transforms the ways in which organizations interact with information by creating a central operating system for their data.”
Both of these systems solving big issues with less effort. The arms industry as example would took billions for drones and stuff in Syria for the same job. The important fact is that PLTR does not spend so much resources for new clients they only have to provide access and support for their services and the client feeding the “machine” with data.
The key point is to understand that PLTR benefits very huge from economy of scales. This is very important since their costs for additional revenue is basically flat while the profits growing exorbitant with new customers. They offer a software and platforms and not kind of services where they need man power. All they do is working on their platforms and improving it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palantir-ipo-breakingviews-idUSKCN26E3I2

  • 3. PLTRs big issue during the last decade
Peter Thiel was a great supporter of Trump and funded his elections campaign. The market thought that when trump wins then PLTR will get all the government (especially military) contracts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/peter-thiel-bet-donald-trump-wins-big.html
But this didn’t happened. Peter got cucked by the huge authority apparatus in pentagon. These dudes loves bureaucracy and they do it for a good reason. If you retire from your job in pentagon you usually get a high paid luxurious position at Lockheed, Raytheon or Bae Systems to make additional free money for your retirement. Many thousand people working in pentagon just to select and buy stuff for the government. They spending billions of dollars for purchases and then PLTR came around and said like „look guys we can do this job for a few millions instead billions“. Of course the arms industry was pissed and the pentagon boomers helped them out. PLTR got constantly scammed from boomers and didn’t get the contracts. This was also the „swamp „trump was talking about.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/inside-palantir-s-war-with-the-u-s-army
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/03/27/palantir-trump-army-military-procurement.html

https://preview.redd.it/qd6q5xyfi4h61.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed75e73d7eefbd35c97f50ded4d7cda9e6222c25
A fun fact to this matter: Before James Mattis got summoned as the Defense Secretary of the USA he was a general in Afghanistan. He ordered services from PLTR despite the fact the pentagon was against it. But the marines praised PLTRs software and valued it over the trash they used to know from the defense/arms industry.
https://www.military.com/defensetech/2013/07/01/special-forces-marines-embrace-palantir-software
Even with a James Mattis as the defense secretary, trump as president and regardless that PLTR does it better and cheaper than the arms industry, it wasn’t possible for PLTR to get the government contracts.
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/11/palantir-defense-jim-mattis-inner-circle-239373
https://fortune.com/longform/palantir-pentagon-trump/
How it’s ended? Well Peter’s wife doesn’t have a boyfriend because Peter is the fucking boyfriend of their wifes. All ended at the court and PLTR won. All this injustice ended at the court. The judgements on these cases are true circuit breakers for PLTR. Not only because PLTR spent shit tons of money for law suits. The lawsuits were perfect uppercut hits on the arms industry and they ended some fraudulent behaviors and „best practices „in the government
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2016/10/31/judge-rules-in-favor-of-palantir-in-lawsuit-against-us-army/
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/03/29/palantir-who-successfully-sued-the-army-just-won-a-major-army-contract/
PLTR will profit from a Biden who wants to decrease the military expenditures. They will get the job done and at the same time the costs will go down. With the recent judgements the door looks open
.
  • 4. Valuation problems
I could spam some multiplication on revenue or even a DCF but I think it’s not necessary. Expect the costs of research and development (maybe marketing) the costs of PLTR stood mostly flat in the last quarters. It’s a growth stock and the pricing is mostly in the perspective of PLTR. This is actually all we need to know that the revenue increases while the costs staying mostly flat. Check out the balance sheets at page 12 on the S Form 1.
Let’s talk about the market. The whole market seems overpriced but it isn’t tbh. Due to the low cost of capital there is no alternative than to throwing your money on stocks or on real estate. There is nothing with a solid interest rate around (not even in emerging markets). At the stock exchange like in 70s, the companies had to offer a return, a perspective which should be more attractive as putting your money on a saving account with 8% interests without risks. These times are gone since the 2000s. So before people discuss insane valuation they should check out the fiscal and economical policies.
Now back to PLTR and why the price is difficult to set (cheap imo). First of all PLTR did a direct listing without an investment bank for their share offerings. Its lacking of the valuation which they usually would get through such a process.
PLTR wanted to do IPO with Morgan Stanley but it was mess.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/morgan-stanley-s-long-romance-of-palantir-pays-off-as-ipo-nears
Morgan Stanley proved themselves many times as stubborn communists when it comes to valuations. I mean you guys remember their disgusting price targets for tesla like 100$ post split or stuff like that.
These guys are very focused on numbers and I know it’s difficult to price in the potential and perspectives. But you can’t ignore these things for a fundamental valuation. If you want to consider these things in the price you have to understand the business of the company.
This ended that one team at Morgan Stanley valuated PLTR with 5 billion while another team thought they worth 40 billion.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/11/14/palantir-ipo-valuation-morgan-stanley.html
How is this difference possible and why is this happening? Because people don’t understand what they are valuating. This happened a lot in the last decade because the decision makers in these banks and many analyst don’t have any idea which metrics they should use on companies like that. They are using the metrics from classical industries on new business. They freaked out when Facebook was valued with 100 billion as IPO. Same with Twitter and in the last years it was Tesla. They said apple going to tank every damn year in the last decade. I honor Warren Buffet so much since he has the dignity to realize that he don’t understands something but at the same time he sees the potential and the trend. That’s why he hired 2 Chads who bought Snowflake for him. The transformation and the generation change didn’t happened yet. That’s why they try to use the metrics from Caterpillar on Tesla.
Guys the whole market is mooning with the cheap liquidity. Pennystocks and zombie companies transforming into billion dollar market cap companies. Facebook as IPO had a market cap of 104 billion back in 2012. At that time it wasn’t possible for Facebook to monetize their users with selling ads. They just paid 100 billion for the potential in more difficult market conditions.
Look at the IPOs like doordash, Bumble. I’m not going to call this a bubble. Just check out their business cases and use the metrics. Maybe its easier for people to understand Bumble and Doordash…
On page 12 of the S1 (balance sheet) Form you can already see the huge positive trends in PLTRs revenue and their costs. All this without all the positive events and contracts PLTR recently got.
PLTRs valuation is difficult and I think it’s miscalculated by pessimistic communist who don’t understand that their products are game changers for industries, governments and defense forces. Because of these points I think there is huge price potential for PLTR.

  • 5. Risks for PLTR
Despite the general market risks PLTR mentions at page 29 of the S1 Form the competitors as the main risk: “We face intense competition in our markets, and we may lack sufficient financial or other resources to maintain or improve our competitive position.” The S1 Form didn’t aged well. Actually I don’t think that PLTR would have any trouble with offering new shares. Also with Peter Thiel as one of the founders the financial side should be stable.
As PLTR competitor people use to mention IBM. The boomers from IBM already surrendered with their Windows95 computers and decided to cooperate. The biggest threat would be big tech with big money like AMZN or APPL. You all now the stories about APPL and Spotify or AMZN and all the merchants. Even if the big players would step into PLTR markets it would be difficult for them since PLTRs products doesn’t rely on an Amazon store or on apple devices. PLTR is years ahead with their products.
I think the greatest risk (still) are the boomerish arms industry and all the boomers in pentagon and other authorities.
There are very corrupt infrastructures when it comes to decision making and assigning contracts. People fear changes but they can’t avoid the changes. With the recent judgements we can see a turn on the tables but the transformation will still take time. It’s a circuit breaker with an avalanche effect.
The risk factors on page 16 on the S1 form mostly aren’t relevant anymore. People complained that PLTR wasn’t profitable for 18 years. Well PLTR was never designed to be profitable and Alex Karp once said “love us or leave us alone”.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/09/09/palantir-ceo-makes-livestreamed-pitch-to-investors.html
But even this changed recently. PLTR became profitable in 2020 with 130,000,000§. Now the same people complaining about how high the stock price compared to the profits. Well just you wait.

  • 6. Conclusion and Outlook
If you still reading I have to admit that this was a lot text and i am sorry again about the lingo. Let’s connect the dots and bring this information to a point
  1. The boomer coalition in the pentagon and in the arms industry is taken down by PLTR. They will able to get the governments contracts and the classic arms/defense industry is no match for PLTR products. The judgements of lawsuits were catalyst and the effects should be already shown in the next earnings. These were such underrated events but I think there still will be some odds but PLTRs situation is much better as it was a time ago. The chains are off!
  2. Military expenditures rising worldwide

https://preview.redd.it/es8lf2qei4h61.jpg?width=744&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=90ba50e0ce9a0de2a0ca3957a1f2af3c7607e3b1
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion
With Bidens presidency we will see more disruptive technologies chosen by the government. Biden want to reduce the military expenditures. PLTR is able to provide better service for lower cost. Not only the recent judgements also the political change will help PLTR. Ironic if you remember that Peter supported Trump and getting his tendies from Biden.
  1. PLTR superior products profits hugely from economy of scales. They don’t have any significant costs when they acquire new customers. Making the big data usable for decisions making is already very important and step by step people realize that this issue growing fast. We creating everyday more data than we did yesterday and leaving the majority of it as trace and unstructured data. We don’t work with it but big Institutions does.
Here is the passage from the S1 and I fully agree with it:
“The systemic failures of government institutions to provide for the public — fractured healthcare systems, erosions of data privacy, strained criminal justice systems, and outmoded ways of fighting wars — will continue to require both the public and private sectors to transform themselves. We believe that the underperformance and loss of legitimacy of many of these institutions will only increase the speed with which they are required to change.”
  1. PLTRs value. The current situation of the market with tons of liquidity seems like a bubble. People don’t know what to do with the cheap capital and people throwing it even on meme pennystocks.
Facebook had his ipo back in 2012 during much harder market conditions as now. The valuation of Facebook was over 100 billion and people called it insanely overvalued. They did it because Facebook didn’t had a way to monetize their users (especially on mobile platforms). Facebook has a market cap of over 750 billion now and nobody calling it over valued.
A remember the recent examples? Bumble?! Bruuuh. Don’t get me wrong if you invested in Bumble but they have nothing special to offer and their business case can easily copied or improved by others. Its shows the current state of our market with the crazy liquidity that even zombie companies got astronomic valuations. Use these metrics on PLTR with great products, great management, low cost base and less odds as ever before….
PLTR price is wrong imo especially in this market and with PLTRs current state and perspective.
  1. Do you use PLTR? Me Neither! It’s not designed for us and we have to inform us about the success. PLTRs new contracts and their future are shining bright. With the settled lawsuits the sky is clear for PLTR. But their customer base is not only America. I’m not a murican and 3 weeks before I just find out that the police departments in our state using PLTR products. I don’t need to link endless evidences here since you can google it by yourself and see how many contracts PLTR recently got. Especially after the circuit breakers we talked about.
I have genuinely trust into Peter Thiel and Alex Karp that their will make the best of PLTRs potential. The odds getting removed and the demand for PLTR is increasing.
If all these information would priced in correctly we would have a share price of at least 60-70$. With upcoming and ongoing positive events PLTR share price should soar more..
What’s next?
Now we have earnings ahead and the lock up period ending.
For the earnings I think the number will be fine and keep up the positive trend on revenue with a disproportionately trend of the costs. The most important part will be guidance for 2021. We should listen closely and see if the magic is already happening.
The second event is the ending of the lock up period. You all remember the end of the lock up period of Nikola? Just 1-2 days after they announced they don’t got the GM deal? The stock tanked – for a good reason. You know the guy Trevor Milton.
But in PLTRs case everything is different. Despite the successful deals they got, does a guy who says “love us or leave us alone” sounds like someone who going to drop his shares at the first possibility? I don’t expect such a behavior from Alex Karp and neither from Peter Thiel. If some employees drop their shares it should be fine.
I would appreciate if the stock prices would go below 3ß. It would create a healthy bullish chart pattern and would be actually a nice discount to get in or stock up. I don’t think that the shares going to dump a lot because of this event. The earnings and the guidance are more important and the key events if you want to invest mid – long term.
What does all this means for you? Nothing! Please don’t do any market activity based on my DD. I’m just sharing my knowledge and looking for critics so I can reevaluate my theses. This is not a financial advice.
This is not a financil advise!
I’m not well positioned and not trying to pump this stock. I have 70 shares and a CSP. Fair play and fuck all the bots and pump and dumper we recently got in the sub!
Leave an upvote if this post helped you. I need some more karma to be able to shitpost everywhere again!
submitted by PutsOnYourWife to wallstreetbetsOGs [link] [comments]

The Gayest Gay Bear Post in the History of WSB. We are HEADED DOWN, Folks!!!

The Gayest Gay Bear Post in the History of WSB. We are HEADED DOWN, Folks!!!

Update (12/8/20):

For those who missed it, I've upped this bet to include a tattoo on my ass if I'm wrong. But I won't be wrong.

UPPING THE ANTE: If SPY closes below 360 by next Friday I will donate $100 to the top 10 commentors below. If SPY closes above 375 next Friday I will get JPow's face and "Don't Fight The Fed" tattooed on my ass.

UPDATE (11/30/20):

Stock futures are currently at around +0.80%. I'm down as fuck on my positions as most of you already know...
I stated before I never put more than 10k into short term options plays, which is how I've lasted 20 years in this game.
These are extreme times. I am now putting that rule on hold. If these futures hold up, tomorrow I am dumping another 10k into my SPY puts and VXX calls. I am literally doubling down to a 20k total bet.
This extra 10k will be January/February dated since my December timing appears to be early.
Still conservative strikes: VXX 22c, SPY 350p, TLT 162c

UPDATE: CURRENT POSITIONS (as of 11/20/20)

https://preview.redd.it/wn0f6wuevh061.png?width=1078&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5f63c8e8577acead459cc55c72f2076974755f2
https://preview.redd.it/qiu0oma2j7061.png?width=1626&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aac070daa9c5595cc3e5e3dad2747297e2289c3
Hello again. SVM/??? here with another fuckin banger. LET'S GOOOO!!!!!

Introduction:

The market is going to tank. Let me just give a bit of background so you know why my opinion is better than yours...
I am not a bear. I am not a bull. I go where the market tells me to go, I bet where it tells me to bet. And right now, the indicators are telling me to take a strong bearish position. So that's what I have been doing.
I've been trading more than 20 years. I was trading the great financial crash while most of you were watching fucking Spongebob or whatever the fuck you kids jerked it to. This is not my primary job, but I make a good deal of cash on the side every month, timing the market and swing trading broad market ETFs. I do my research, I know my shit, and I rarely touch your shitty meme stocks. I'm doing you all a favor of once again sharing my insights into this market, so you too can share in my profits and maybe learn a thing or two.
I will lay this out as cleanly as I can, offering multiple premises for my bearish bet and explaining them in detail. I've covered some of this in the past, but wanted to consolidate everything and more in one place. This post will be long. If you want to cry about that rather than thank me for my service, you will go broke soon and deserve it cuz you are a lazy fuck. PRESSING FORWARD!

Primary Bearish Premises:
Premise 1: The Market is Massively Overvalued (Macro)
Premise 2: SPY is Topping Off and Running on Vaccine Fumes (TA)
Premise 3: The Fed CANNOT Print Money You Retards (Facts)
Premise 4: Quantitative Easing is Deflationary (Theory)
Premise 5: Credit Markets are Contracting (Data)
Premise 6: Banks are Loading Up on Safe Bonds While Retail Loads Up on Stocks (Data)
Premise 7: Unemployment is Still Sky High (Data)

Premise 1: The Market is Massively Overvalued

There are plenty of small, detail arguments for a bearish position. Covid cases rising, election uncertainty, stimulus failing, and so on. Plenty of others have made this case, so I won't focus on the small scale issues such as these.
What I want to give you is a larger, macro picture. Because the market is simply overvalued, period. The market has become divorced from the overall economy. I understand tech, and why they have a bullish case for growth in the face of Covid lockdowns... My point here is that you need some REAL WORLD measures to tie "future earnings" down to reality, to prevent irrational euphoria from taking over your mind.
There are plenty of indicators out there showing that stocks are overvalued. We could talk about insane P/E ratios, about euphoric meme stock flops like NKLA, and so on. The metric I'm going to present here is not new by any stretch. It isn't unique or original. But it is undeniably useful, and carries strong weight, whether modern traders wish to shun it and its originator or not. I'm talking about the Buffet Indicator.
https://preview.redd.it/oem2uhz714061.png?width=1008&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1f7e97544eba52859b986af68b4b80556660e43
For those of you new to this concept, it is simply the total stock market valuation divided by GDP. The point is to compare total market valuations with some hard, trailing, real-world metric, in this case GDP. When market valuations uncouple strongly from actual market conditions, it is a strong signal of irrational stock valuations. And that presents opportunity for those paying attention.
Note that this chart has already been detrended down to account for historically rising P/E ratios, and it still shows a strongly overvalued market, equal to what was seen during the DotCom bubble. That's bad news, folks.
This is the REAL issue in the present market, and why buyers are becoming exhausted. Covid, instability, elections, stimulus... These are all just catalysts to give that equity bubble a little prick. Only the dumbest of the dumb are still "buying the dip" under current market conditions, which means mostly clueless retail gamblers on WSB. All these perma-bulls are doing is offering liquidity to the institutional investors to help get them out of their positions. In the end, we all know who is left holding the bag.

Premise 2: The Market is Topping Off and Running on Vaccine Fumes

I'm not a big believer in technical analysis. Most of it is bullshit, astrological voodoo if you ask me. But some of it works, and when technical analysis works, it is simply being used as a proxy for assessing market sentiment and emotions. Let's take a closer look at the teaser SPY chart I posted above.
https://preview.redd.it/h0ndq2a914061.png?width=1808&format=png&auto=webp&s=3fe30a5ad23952719c69c6634debe7fe8c0832af
As you can see, the market has been repeatedly rejecting multiple new highs. This process was briefly interrupted by positive vaccine news. We breached a new high on Pfizer vaccine results, but even that new high was instantly rejected and resulted in a sudden reversal selloff. The Moderna vaccine news created another short rally, lower than the Pfizer high, and that too was followed by a selloff. In other words, the market is continually rejecting current market valuations. As they should be, if you were following the point above. We are running on vaccine news fumes, and those will not last long. If you develop an instinct for these things, you can almost feel it in your gut: The market WANTS to head down.
If this isn't the top, it is close to it. $366.77 will very likely be the high for SPY for the year, and will soon unwind downwards.

Premise 3: The Fed CANNOT Print Money

I know this will come as a shock to most of you idiots but the fucking money printer does NOT GO BRRRRR.
The Fed has to follow the laws that govern it's actions. The Fed does not have the legal authority to simply print cash and hand it out. Go ahead and read the Federal Reserve Act, and take a look at the Fed's actions, for proof of this. It doesn't even have the authority to print cash to buy corporate bonds or anything else.
What the Fed "prints" is called "reserves."
Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2019/august/open-market-operations-monetary-policy-tools-explained
So what, you say? So everything. The key point about reserves is that they cannot be spent like cash can. When a bank gets reserve funds in its reserve account at the Fed, it CANNOT SPEND that money. All the bank can do is use that account as collateral to lend against. Which means if the banks are not lending, those QE funds are NOT entering the economy. They might as well not exist. And banks are not lending, as we will see below.
This is the counter argument to all the ignorant retail traders who will argue that the Fed is "backstopping" stocks, or that the Fed will not "allow" the market to crash. The Fed has no power to print money, and therefore no power to buy stocks, and therefore no power to prevent a crash. The Fed's power is illusory, but enough people buy the illusion to make it effective. That won't last forever.
Just think about it. If Fed actions and QE really made stocks rally the way people claim it does, why isn't the Japan Nikkei constantly breaking new all time highs???

Premise 4: Quantitative Easing is Deflationary

Quantitative Easing is not Cash. In fact, QE is deflationary.
Here is how QE works, in a nutshell. The Fed buys bonds from the big banks. Except the Fed isn't buying them with cash. In exchange for the bonds, the Fed puts funds in a reserve account held by the bank. These reserve funds CANNOT BE TOUCHED by the banks. All the banks can do is use this account as collateral to lend against.
In fact, it's worse than that. Because the Fed is removing assets from the open market, and not paying cash for them. It is purchasing liquid assets with illiquid reserves. Despite all the Fed's talk about "creating liquidity," what the Fed is actually doing is REMOVING liquidity from the system!
Why would they do this? Answer: To lower interest rates. Don't take my word for it, the Fed explains this itself!
Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2019/august/open-market-operations-monetary-policy-tools-explained
See, the Fed has to follow the laws that govern its actions. Despite what the public believes, the Fed does not have the legal authority to simply print money and hand it out. The Fed knows that the true source of inflation in a debt-based economy is through credit expansion. So the Fed does everything it can to reduce interest rates, both by setting reserve rates near zero and by using QE to drive rates down further.
Only when credit expansion revives will we begin to see inflation and a true recovery. The Fed knows their hands are tied, which is why they keep hammering Congress to pass more stimulus.
Perhaps the greatest strength of the Fed is in "forward guidance." The Fed simply uses words to convince the public that money is being printed, that inflation is coming, so that people go out and spend and buy assets. They are playing a trick on the public, and the trick is working. People actually believe inflation is coming, that stocks are being held up by the Fed, that money is pouring into the system. The public is wrong on every count.
The Fed is trying to contract credit markets in order to lower interest rates in order to eventually spur lending in order to eventually create inflation. But in the meantime, QE is deflationary. As stated above, if reserve funds are not being lent out by the banks, they do not enter the economy, and thus QE serves a deflationary role. Let's take a look at the next premise, that banks are contracting the credit markets.

Premise 5: Credit Markets are Contracting

The question of whether banks are lending or not with their QE reserves is simply a matter of looking at the data. Practically every data source we can point to suggests contracting credit conditions. This means QE reserves are not entering the economy, and therefore are not producing inflation nor holding up stocks.
The SLOOS data from the Fed, Oct. 2020:
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202010-table-1.htm
Real Estate lending is booming, you say? Not so....
Banks Lending is TIGHTENING:
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/documents/sloos-202010-charts.pdf
Note: The decline near the end doesn't represent growth in credit, but represents a reduction in the RATE of tightening.
Consumer Demand for Loans is SHRINKING:
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/documents/sloos-202010-charts.pdf
Even Credit Card debt growth is negative!
https://preview.redd.it/73j9n0fl14061.png?width=1585&format=png&auto=webp&s=6328ef22e4a84f0a32b419c35eeacc5238911d24

Premise 6: Banks are Loading Up on Safe Bonds While Retail Loads Up on Stocks

If you are like me, you look forward to the H.8 data every Friday from the Fed (yeah right haha). A continuing trend in that data, month after month after month, is that major banks in the US have been loading up on bonds with no end in sight. They are piling more and more cash into safe assets, now up to a whopping $4.6 TRILLION in securities.
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm
Meanwhile, retail traders (that means you) keep piling into stocks at all time highs. A record amount of cash was dumped into the market after the vaccine news breaks. I'm just gonna go ahead and call it now. This is the top.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-13/stock-funds-get-record-44-5-billion-inflows-on-vaccine-optimism

Premise 7: Unemployment is Still Sky High

I bring this up just to reiterate another real-world metric that is gloomy as fuck and yet completely ignored from market valuations. Why are stocks breaking all-time highs when we still have MILLIONS more unemployed than we did this time last year? Hello McFly?
https://preview.redd.it/jda435zq14061.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&s=3929064c0e9d6ae120201ad4295e02cca2bdcf45

Conclusion:

Shit's fucked up son. Real world economy is still in shambles. Market is more overvalued than it was during the DotCom boom. Still millions unemployed. The market is topping off and rejecting highs again and again. The Fed is not printing money and not backstopping assets, despite claims to the contrary. We are heading down, folks!
Positions:
SPY 350p 12/18
VXX 22c 12/18
Also anything else that strikes your fancy. IWM, GLD, SLV puts are all fine (dollar is going to rise). Longer dated TLT calls will print as well due to QE reducing bond yields, eventually. Go longer or shorted dated depending on personal risk tolerance.
Timing can be difficult. My strategy is to periodically enter bearish positions when short-term indicators look good, and hope to eventually time the major dump. If things begin to stabilize short-term I exit the position quickly with a small gain or, rarely, a small loss.
See: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/jkm5jq/the_bears_arent_done_folks_these_diamond_hands/
submitted by StevenVanMetre to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Hunter or Huntress Chapter 64: Justice Expedition

Right then first chapter of 2021, hopefully, we can start the year of with a good one. The ever-vigilant TwoFlower68 has been at it again, combing through my little mess. so hopefully that part is up to spec.
But let's dive into the story right away.
ko-fi
Sapphire
First Previous next
__________________________________________________________________________________
Chapter 64: Justice Expedition
“So, how are we looking back there?” Vulzan questioned looking at them. It had been five years since last she was in the capital, she might even get to see some of her siblings. The last time she had been there Haiko was trying to become a tavern guard and Viper was supposedly a trader escort now, so there was a chance she would see them both.
“Ready as we'll ever be” Dakota retorted. It had taken some thought to decide who would be going. In the end, they had settled on Sapphire, Dakota, and Balethon.
Dakota had demanded to go. Swearing vengeance on Lady Flaxen for attacking her childhood best friend, she and Esmeralda had practically grown up together. Nunuk and Apuma couldn’t be spared due to Esmeralda’s condition. With Jarix and Tom helping they shouldn’t have much trouble with securing food though. That meant Sapphire had been allowed to go, since sending Jackalope really wasn’t gonna do much good and Fengi would rather not go back.
Rachuck had decided that Balethon was the best pick to send. Probably because there was no way of getting Kokashi to leave Esmeralda or their children. Dakota had wanted Unkai, but Rachuck claimed he needed his healer if things got rough while they were gone. Besides they did have Dakota if they ended up needing some emergency medical aid.
So Balethon it was. Sapphire was at least hoping he would find someone other than her to shower with praise for some of the time. It was going to be a long flight and as much as she enjoyed being told how beautiful or awesome she was, there came a point where it just got repetitive. Looking around Vulzan's escorts there were a few candidates to choose from, not to mention a few which were clearly eying Sapphire. She just crossed her fingers that they were less persistent than Balethon, there might even be a funny one among them you never know.
“Cargo secure” one of the escorts shouted back to Vulzan.
“Right then all good back here Arch”
“Very good, hang on then” Sapphire grabbed the thick netting running across Archeon’s back as the dragon got to his feet and began running along, Baron had already taken to the sky. They were not in too much of a hurry though, Archeon was faster flying even with cargo on board, thanks to his sleeker frame.
A considerable amount of that cargo had been left behind, which of course didn’t hurt his speed either. Vulzan had of course seen his chance to bring in more metal for Tom and Jarix had managed to convince his father that they deserved a great price. The young dragon had even paid for much of it himself, to everyone’s surprise.
They took to the air waving at everyone who had come out to say goodbye. Sapphire did have a bit of a knot in her stomach, leaving Esmeralda, but both Nunuk and Apuma had promised that she would be fine. The trip to the capital would likely take them close to a week each way, and who knew how long they would need to stay in the capital. Sapphire had never had to attend a court hearing. She had only looked at the building when passing above it a few times.
Jackalope and Fengi had come along either side of them to give a flying send-off.
“Good luck you're gonna need it” Jackalope shouted jokingly.
“Don’t get killed,” Fengi had added in a slightly more worried voice.
“You first” Sapphire had retorted with as much confidence as she could muster. These were trying times, but damn if life had been this exciting in years.
“We’ll stay in touch" Dakota shouted at them. Sapphire smirked looking at the new earring their fearless leader was wearing. Just because it had been in the service of evil didn’t mean it couldn’t be useful after all.
Jackalope and Fengi both peeled off rolling into spinning dives, clearly trying to show off a bit one last time. Scoring a few shouts of approval from the escorts currently perched around Archeon. Dakota, Sapphire, and Balethon added in, those were two of their own after all.
As Archeon continued to climb the keep was soon getting rather small behind them, Baron was dead ahead and getting bigger, it took a minute or two before they were up alongside. Archeon had offered to take point, but Baron had refused. He was both the larger and older dragon here and as such would fly as formation lead. Even if Archeon was better suited to break the wind for them.
As they settled into cruising speed at a safe altitude above the ground, people started getting up and walking around a bit, setting down for a chat and a game or two. The three of them had just huddled together, they had gotten out the winter coats for this trip else they might very well risk freezing up from sitting still in this wind, especially if they hit bad weather. Right now though the weather was beautiful, with plenty of sun and only a few clouds.
Sapphire wondered if she could get Dakota to spill the beans on what Tom had offered to Jarix. She had never even heard of a Royal guard dragon agreeing to plow a field. Hell, even those considered honest working dragons would be hard to coax into such a job. And he had paid for some of what was technically their supplies and that was definitely supposed to be the other way around.
“So, I heard Jarix agreed to pretty much be Tom’s beast of burden. How did that happen?”
“Yeah, that was quite the scene let me tell you. Tom got all philosophical again.”
“He managed to talk Jarix into it?” Sapphire replied in disbelief. Sure Tom had a bit of a silver tongue, but that was simply too much to believe. Dakota leaned over clearly trying to be subtle.
“He promised Jarix a machine gun, as well as fighting alongside him in defense of the keep.” Sapphire could see how that would do it. Kinda explained the dragon's extreme generosity as well.
“I’m allowed to know?” Balethon questioned, as he waited his turn. Only Vulzan and Tyborg had been allowed to witness the evening lesson. So they needed to be a bit careful about what they said. Tom had clearly been very determined not to let what was shown there become common knowledge.
Dakota obliged, the look on his face became one of understanding.
“Whatcha talking about” one of the escorts questioned “Something we are allowed to hear?”
“Unfortunately not sorry” Dakota replied, in a stern yet apologetic voice.
“Nah I get it, that Tom guy has secrets to keep and I sure as shit ain’t gonna be crossing him. Care for a game?” Why hadn’t she thought of that, Sapphire cursed herself.
“Sure whatcha got?” Dakota replied for them.
“Come on over gonna play one-up” ‘Oh no not the weird metaphor stuff’ Sapphire thought to herself. Still, it would help pass the time and she was bound to become bored with looking at the horizon eventually.
They had gathered a handful of people on the centerline of Archon's back. The netting helped, but this would have been easier to do on Barron. Some of the escorts were hanging down the sides of the dragon. They looked comfortable enough though, dangling from the netting.
“I am a kid I see the joy in everything” the one next to Dakota went, the game was already going then, brilliant.
“I am a nightmare, I prowl the dark” Dakota continued.
“I am a torch, I keep the darkness away” heh, that was easy.
“I am water, I drown the fire” ‘ha suck on that one, Bale boy’
“I am human I love water” the one next to Sapphire went, clever ‘little bastard’ the next one in line wondered for a bit.
“Da fuck beats him?” he went in a genuinely curious voice.
Sapphire pondered a bit. The vargufl’s had sorta managed it.
“Corruption?” one of the others went shrugging his shoulders looking at the trio from the keep as if they should know.
“No clue actually” Dakota finally replied. You got one Sapphire? thinking back there was one thing he had yet to manage with any sort of grace.
“Girls” Sapphire finally went. “He’s got no clue there”
__________________________________________________________________________________
“Hey, Shiva watch this” Tom took a sip of the first jar of finished fuel. The hydrometer claimed it was between 94% and 95% and that was good enough for Tom. “I am Baron, I am mighty”
It had been a while since Tom last tried this trick but it was always a party favorite, as long as you didn’t do it indoors and especially near curtains... This was a smithy though so he was sure it would be fine.
“Shit! What the hell?!” Wiperna let out in alarm, Shiva just had a hearty chuckle.
“Oh yeah, it certainly burns alright. Doesn’t even taste that shit anymore, nice and pure. Don’t drink it though there might still be methanol in there.” Tom went putting away the lighter.
“Which is?” Shiva questioned, clearly expecting an explanation.
“Makes you go blind if you have too much, so just don’t.” Shiva eyed the glass jar he was holding a bit.
“I will take your word for it.”
“On second thought, I should probably mix this with petrol right away” Tom had a feeling Shiva’s word might not be so sound on this point. The annoyed twitch on her face told him he was probably right.
Making what was essentially E85 would help a great deal with storage too, not to mention the bike would likely run a lot better on that, than pure alcohol.
“If you insist on drinking it, do try and take the stuff from the middle of the process, that should be mostly pure” A hint of a smile crept onto Shiva's face as she crossed her arms.
“I insist.” Tom wrote of the afternoon’s scheduled work on the engine housing as he doubted the smith would be much help then.
Baron had departed that morning to transport the bitch and her accomplices back to the capitol. Hashaw had promised she would face some considerable punishment but didn’t elaborate further. Tom has asked Nunuk and Apuma what sort of punishment would be expected for something like this.
The answer had been a mixed bag. They were hoping that her position as a city warden was at the very least done for. There would also be reparations to be paid, both to Esmeralda and Nunuk. There was even a chance they could get something for what Dashu had caused if the judge was feeling vindictive that day. Nunuk was also hopeful that she would face prison time and if her family didn’t decide to back her up, there was a good chance it would actually stick.
Tom had hoped for something like taking her wings, but hurting a noble sounded a lot more tricky than it should. Then again it wasn’t much better back home. The idea of buying your way out of jail had apparently made it through their rather strict honor code around here, which was a bit of a disappointment too.
Judging by Hashaw’s demeanor when she left, there was every chance some political favors were going to be pulled in the other direction too though. Dakota had gone along to try and make use of what connections they had, should it become necessary, as well as testifying of course.
In other news. Esmeralda was also doing much better, though she was still resigned to the bed for a bit longer. Apparently the more rest she got the fewer lasting side-effects she would suffer. That poison was a truly vile thing. Tom knew of nerve-agents and things like mustard gas. This stuff seemed almost like it tried to eat you, in that sense, it was more of a chemical weapon than poison or venom as the dragonettes referred to it. That alone sent shivers down his spine. If he ever came across a green dragon he would make sure to keep his distance since anything that could survive having that in its mouth was bound to be bad news.
Apuma had promised that Esmeralda would get back to her feet and make at least close to a full recovery. She would need to continue eating that foul-smelling stuff he had made though. For that, they had gotten a shopping list of things they needed from the forest. Since they were down to Fengi and a one-handed Jackalope, it had been decided it was as good a time as any to take their newest members on their first hunt and foraging expedition.
Fengi and Jackalope had already departed, taking Wiperna and Zarko with them to help out. They were to start gathering up what they could find in terms of herbs and game. Then Jarix could just haul it all back and not have to sit around waiting for too long. Jarix hadn’t objected though he seemed a bit skittish about letting Zarko go on ahead.
Tom had brought up an empty fuel can and a full one and showed Shiva and Raoulf how to mix it. It wasn’t a difficult procedure so he left them to it, crossing his fingers that they would still be able to see when he got back. Then he had grabbed his parachute and made for the greeting hall where Jarix and Radexi were already waiting.
“So ready for takeoff?” Tom went upon rounding the corner.
“Buckles are tight and checked,” Radexi answered in an optimistic tone.
“Do I get the special treatment or do you wanna see me try climbing again?”
“Come on up, that was funny though,” Jarix replied, lowering a wing. As Tom walked up he felt a little bad his boots weren’t cleaner. It almost felt like there should be a welcome mat or something. Walking on the soft springy membrane was an odd sensation too. He felt more like he was walking on a bouncy castle than anything. “Tom, you do know the way right?” Tom hadn’t known Jarix that long, but that sounded like masked confidence to Tom.
“Sure been there and back quite a few times”
“Oh good,” Jarix replied in a clearly relieved tone.
“What’s the matter, not much of a navigator?”
“Uhmmm… no” Jarix replied in an uncertain tone.
“That's what I and Zarko are for when flying. I’m just a backup though.” Radexi piped up.
“Jarix, you’re 85 and you can’t navigate.”
“Yes, I can… just not read maps or stars... I don’t know where I am right now okay”
“Zarko usually takes care of where we are going,” Radexi added, seemingly not concerned.
“Welp, I’m the king of not knowing where I am around here so might as well get going.”
“Can’t argue with that” Radexi agreed.
“Wait is that good or bad?” Jarix questioned clearly not reassured by that statment.
“Brought my compass we’re fine”
“Whats a compass?” Radexi questioned.
“Always points north... Not that great on an island though, it likes to move” Tom had to admit
“ooohhhhh”
“Brilliant three people who don’t know where we are and a magic thing that doesn’t help here.”
“Relax, I have been to the forest a few times.”
Jarix got up doing a bit of a jog in place as if hyping himself up. “Okay off we go, hang on back there”
Tom was starting to properly enjoy the feeling of going weightless as they dropped off the edge, then the first wingbeat caught them and they were flying.
“Okay turn right to two o’clock”
“Uhmm what?” Jarix responded.
“Oh right, sorry, turn right to 060 degrees” There was more silence,
“You don’t know degrees”
“I have no clue what you are talking about”
“Ohh…. Uhm, right a bit” Tom turned back to Radexi “How do you say go over there?” Tom pointed to two o’clock.
Radexi squinted a bit “Right turn one-sixth I think”
“That sounds very annoying to use”
“What would you say”
We just go on, two three four five, o’clock and so on up to twelve.
“Why twelve?”
“There are twenty-four hours in a…”
“Would someone tell me where we are going?” Jarix interrupted.
“Right sorry right turn one-sixth”
“Now that wasn’t so hard was it?” Jarix replied going into a lazy right turn.
“My system is better you learn it one day”
“Sure it is, hours in the day and turning have so much in common” Jarix replied clearly not convinced by that fact, so Tom turned to Radexi instead.
“Hmpf, right so you see this thing, this is a watch or a clock”
It took a while to explain the concept but at least it helped pass the time. They were discussing degrees when Jarxi interrupted the lesson.
“I see trees”
“Good, head for them. They see us coming I’m sure.”
They made for the tree line Tom and Radexi both peering out ahead trying to see if they could spot anyone on the wing.
“Hey, Tom why do you wear those google things in front of your eyes, you know they are black, right?"
“I’m not made to go this fast, they hurt otherwise and they help with the sun too”
“Man you really suck at being up here”
“Hey remember I’m the second most well-armed guy here and only by a little”
“Little, have you ever seen what I can do?” Jarix questioned clearly not believing what he was hearing.
“No” Tom had to admit
“We are here to hunt right?”
“Uhm… yeah”
“Well, what do you say we do some hunting then? The quick way”
“Are you sure that is a good idea?” Tom replied Radexi just looked at Tom violently mimicking a 'Come on, man' with his whole body. “You know what sure, why not. Just don’t wipe out an entire herd okay?” Okay, this had the potential to be really awesome.
“Yeah yeah, else the prancy white horse gets mad. I know, I have heard the stories”
“Didn’t Nunuk claim you met one?” Radexi asked Tom.
“I did and I agree she was quite annoying. She didn’t even like my chainsaw.”
“Well, I already like your chainsaw for that reason,” Jarix replied. It would seem the reverence for the unicorns was a dragonette thing rather than a draconic thing.
“Oh you will, it made so much noise she had to come to check what was happening” Tom replied laughing
“Okay, now I love it” Jarix retorted. “What does it do?”
“It eats trees” They both laughed a bit at that one.
“Oh I bet she hated that then”
“I don’t wanna ruin the mood but do you see anyone?” Radexi interrupted. There was a bit of a pause as they started scanning around them again.
“You are sure they went to this part of the forest right?” Jarix questioned.
“Uhm… I think so”
__________________________________________________________________________________
ko-fi
First Previous next
So the expedition departs. whout our poor Tom. Hopefully he will get to see the big city one day. Our hapless engineer does have plenty to worry about though, besides figuring out where the fuck they are right now... As always et me know what you thought down below good or bad. if I don't get the bad shit I don't get better. What do you think of out two main characters being split up? Is that gonna be interesting and give Sapphire time to shine or was it a stupid thing to do?
submitted by Tigra21 to HFY [link] [comments]

$PLTR DD have fun :)

Hello fellow retards
I know these are difficult times for this sub and it’s almost impossible to post something solid which is not about the current meme stocks.
Instead of jerking to some porn i did some research on PLTR and want to share my DD with you. This might be a longer text for your love dopamine level so maybe you should grab some your Adderall before.
The following text might you give your eyes aids since English isn’t my native language. I will try my best.
Palantir as a Company – the beginnings
PLTR was founded by some people and one of them is Peter Thiel who worked alongside with our holy papa Elon at PayPal. As a payment-service they had concerns about money laundering and founded PLTR to tackle this issue early. The CIA also funded PLTR (they are always funding stuff like this – Siri as example). This actually might be the reason why people think that PLTR is a company which aggregates data and do data analysis for the government….but this is not accurate and not correct at all if you see the big picture. I will explain this point later.
You retard still reading? Nice here some rocket emoji’s to pump your dopamine and keep you happy.
Let’s start with the DD
First of all my POV is looking for a midterm to long term investment in PLTR. My valuation considers PLTRs current state and predicting from now on for the next few years.
Before I start with the product I rather start with the management. You can sell the nicest thing in the world. I can guarantee you that the product definitely won’t be considered as the nicest thing after a while if you have a shitty management (Intel). With Peter Thiel on the leaderboard we got a competent asshole and CEO is Alex carp (co-founder) Peter Thiel is well known and Alex Karp is one of us. He yolod his heritage into some business and become a chad. Seriously tho, I trust Peter and if Peter holds on Alex since Decades so do I. Peter proved so many times how cunning he is and showed how to pick adapt problems early and create solutions.
Before we understand how important PLTRs products are we have to understand that we are simpeltons who don’t have any business with PLTRs. We create data. We don’t fuck with it. We creating with using our phones or working in the office. Only a few of us may working with accumulated big data. PLTRs customers’ base isn’t neighbor Joe or Aunt Nancy. The products they offer are not even for midcap companies they are more designed for whole industries and governments. That’s the reason why their products aren’t so tangible for many people.
PLTR basically offers systems to big companies/governments which import their data into these systems. PLTR doesn’t sends workers to the client to collect data and analyse it. They sell platforms. They got 2 Products called “Gotham” and “Foundry” You may think wtf is this guy talking about? Let me explain it in 2 examples:
First example is Syria with Gotham. It was impossible in the country to know who the good guys are and who the bad ones are. I know u muricans only know yourself and the rest of the world is the “rest of the world” for you. But this wasn’t so simple in Syria you had many factions with different intentions and some of them were allies and some of them were enemies. The lack of information or the ability of recognizing and sorting these information’s are crucial in a war. PLTR solved the struggle with creating a map which provided resilient information for the marines so they can operate safely. Civil problems over there could also be fixed.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/04/palantir-using-big-data-to-solve-big-humanitarian-crises/
Actually what the John Hopkins University does with the covid numbers and the map, is some sort of what PLTR offering with their solutions. There are rumors that the tracking of Covid and the vaccination will be done by PLTR.
In their S1 Form PLTR describes it this way
“Gotham, our first software platform, was constructed for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. They were hunting for needles not in one, but in thousands of haystacks. And they did not have the software they needed to do their jobs. In Afghanistan and Iraq, soldiers were mapping networks of insurgents and makers of roadside bombs by hand. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, and helps U.S. and allied military personnel find what they are looking for.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm#rom904406_11
The second example is about “Foundry” and it’s directly from the S1 File of PLTR (page 121)
“An Airbus A350, for example, has five million parts and is built by hundreds of teams that are spread across four countries and more than eight factories. Companies routinely struggle to manage let alone make sense of the data involved in large projects. Foundry was built for them. The platform transforms the ways in which organizations interact with information by creating a central operating system for their data.”
Both of these systems solving big issues with less effort. The arms industry as example would took billions for drones and stuff in Syria for the same job. The important fact is that PLTR does not spend so much resources for new clients they only have to provide access and support for their services and the client feeding the “machine” with data.
The key point is to understand that PLTR benefits very huge from economy of scales. This is very important since their costs for additional revenue is basically flat while the profits growing exorbitant with new customers. They offer a software and platforms and not kind of services where they need man power. All they do is working on their platforms and improving it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palantir-ipo-breakingviews-idUSKCN26E3I2
Peter Thiel was a great supporter of Trump and funded his elections campaign. The market thought that when trump wins then PLTR will get all the government (especially military) contracts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/peter-thiel-bet-donald-trump-wins-big.html
But this didn’t happened. Peter got cucked by the huge authority apparatus in pentagon. These dudes loves bureaucracy and they do it for a good reason. If you retire from your job in pentagon you usually get a high paid luxurious position at Lockheed, Raytheon or Bae Systems to make additional free money for your retirement. Many thousand people working in pentagon just to select and buy stuff for the government. They spending billions of dollars for purchases and then PLTR came around and said like „look guys we can do this job for a few millions instead billions“. Of course the arms industry was pissed and the pentagon boomers helped them out. PLTR got constantly scammed from boomers and didn’t get the contracts. This was also the „swamp „trump was talking about.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/inside-palantir-s-war-with-the-u-s-army
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/03/27/palantir-trump-army-military-procurement.html
https://preview.redd.it/qd6q5xyfi4h61.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed75e73d7eefbd35c97f50ded4d7cda9e6222c25
A fun fact to this matter: Before James Mattis got summoned as the Defense Secretary of the USA he was a general in Afghanistan. He ordered services from PLTR despite the fact the pentagon was against it. But the marines praised PLTRs software and valued it over the trash they used to know from the defense/arms industry.
https://www.military.com/defensetech/2013/07/01/special-forces-marines-embrace-palantir-software
Even with a James Mattis as the defense secretary, trump as president and regardless that PLTR does it better and cheaper than the arms industry, it wasn’t possible for PLTR to get the government contracts.
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/11/palantir-defense-jim-mattis-inner-circle-239373
https://fortune.com/longform/palantir-pentagon-trump/
How it’s ended? Well Peter’s wife doesn’t have a boyfriend because Peter is the fucking boyfriend of their wifes. All ended at the court and PLTR won. All this injustice ended at the court. The judgements on these cases are true circuit breakers for PLTR. Not only because PLTR spent shit tons of money for law suits. The lawsuits were perfect uppercut hits on the arms industry and they ended some fraudulent behaviors and „best practices „in the government
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2016/10/31/judge-rules-in-favor-of-palantir-in-lawsuit-against-us-army/
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/03/29/palantir-who-successfully-sued-the-army-just-won-a-major-army-contract/
PLTR will profit from a Biden who wants to decrease the military expenditures. They will get the job done and at the same time the costs will go down. With the recent judgements the door looks open
.
I could spam some multiplication on revenue or even a DCF but I think it’s not necessary. Expect the costs of research and development (maybe marketing) the costs of PLTR stood mostly flat in the last quarters. It’s a growth stock and the pricing is mostly in the perspective of PLTR. This is actually all we need to know that the revenue increases while the costs staying mostly flat. Check out the balance sheets at page 12 on the S Form 1.
Let’s talk about the market. The whole market seems overpriced but it isn’t tbh. Due to the low cost of capital there is no alternative than to throwing your money on stocks or on real estate. There is nothing with a solid interest rate around (not even in emerging markets). At the stock exchange like in 70s, the companies had to offer a return, a perspective which should be more attractive as putting your money on a saving account with 8% interests without risks. These times are gone since the 2000s. So before people discuss insane valuation they should check out the fiscal and economical policies.
Now back to PLTR and why the price is difficult to set (cheap imo). First of all PLTR did a direct listing without an investment bank for their share offerings. Its lacking of the valuation which they usually would get through such a process.
PLTR wanted to do IPO with Morgan Stanley but it was mess.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/morgan-stanley-s-long-romance-of-palantir-pays-off-as-ipo-nears
Morgan Stanley proved themselves many times as stubborn communists when it comes to valuations. I mean you guys remember their disgusting price targets for tesla like 100$ post split or stuff like that.
These guys are very focused on numbers and I know it’s difficult to price in the potential and perspectives. But you can’t ignore these things for a fundamental valuation. If you want to consider these things in the price you have to understand the business of the company.
This ended that one team at Morgan Stanley valuated PLTR with 5 billion while another team thought they worth 40 billion.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/11/14/palantir-ipo-valuation-morgan-stanley.html
How is this difference possible and why is this happening? Because people don’t understand what they are valuating. This happened a lot in the last decade because the decision makers in these banks and many analyst don’t have any idea which metrics they should use on companies like that. They are using the metrics from classical industries on new business. They freaked out when Facebook was valued with 100 billion as IPO. Same with Twitter and in the last years it was Tesla. They said apple going to tank every damn year in the last decade. I honor Warren Buffet so much since he has the dignity to realize that he don’t understands something but at the same time he sees the potential and the trend. That’s why he hired 2 Chads who bought Snowflake for him. The transformation and the generation change didn’t happened yet. That’s why they try to use the metrics from Caterpillar on Tesla.
Guys the whole market is mooning with the cheap liquidity. Pennystocks and zombie companies transforming into billion dollar market cap companies. Facebook as IPO had a market cap of 104 billion back in 2012. At that time it wasn’t possible for Facebook to monetize their users with selling ads. They just paid 100 billion for the potential in more difficult market conditions.
Look at the IPOs like doordash, Bumble. I’m not going to call this a bubble. Just check out their business cases and use the metrics. Maybe its easier for people to understand Bumble and Doordash…
On page 12 of the S1 (balance sheet) Form you can already see the huge positive trends in PLTRs revenue and their costs. All this without all the positive events and contracts PLTR recently got.
PLTRs valuation is difficult and I think it’s miscalculated by pessimistic communist who don’t understand that their products are game changers for industries, governments and defense forces. Because of these points I think there is huge price potential for PLTR.
Despite the general market risks PLTR mentions at page 29 of the S1 Form the competitors as the main risk: “We face intense competition in our markets, and we may lack sufficient financial or other resources to maintain or improve our competitive position.” The S1 Form didn’t aged well. Actually I don’t think that PLTR would have any trouble with offering new shares. Also with Peter Thiel as one of the founders the financial side should be stable.
As PLTR competitor people use to mention IBM. The boomers from IBM already surrendered with their Windows95 computers and decided to cooperate. The biggest threat would be big tech with big money like AMZN or APPL. You all now the stories about APPL and Spotify or AMZN and all the merchants. Even if the big players would step into PLTR markets it would be difficult for them since PLTRs products doesn’t rely on an Amazon store or on apple devices. PLTR is years ahead with their products.
I think the greatest risk (still) are the boomerish arms industry and all the boomers in pentagon and other authorities.
There are very corrupt infrastructures when it comes to decision making and assigning contracts. People fear changes but they can’t avoid the changes. With the recent judgements we can see a turn on the tables but the transformation will still take time. It’s a circuit breaker with an avalanche effect.
The risk factors on page 16 on the S1 form mostly aren’t relevant anymore. People complained that PLTR wasn’t profitable for 18 years. Well PLTR was never designed to be profitable and Alex Karp once said “love us or leave us alone”.
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/09/09/palantir-ceo-makes-livestreamed-pitch-to-investors.html
But even this changed recently. PLTR became profitable in 2020 with 130,000,000§. Now the same people complaining about how high the stock price compared to the profits. Well just you wait.
If you still reading I have to admit that this was a lot text and i am sorry again about the lingo. Let’s connect the dots and bring this information to a point
  1. The boomer coalition in the pentagon and in the arms industry is taken down by PLTR. They will able to get the governments contracts and the classic arms/defense industry is no match for PLTR products. The judgements of lawsuits were catalyst and the effects should be already shown in the next earnings. These were such underrated events but I think there still will be some odds but PLTRs situation is much better as it was a time ago. The chains are off!
  2. Military expenditures rising worldwide
https://preview.redd.it/es8lf2qei4h61.jpg?width=744&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=90ba50e0ce9a0de2a0ca3957a1f2af3c7607e3b1
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion
With Bidens presidency we will see more disruptive technologies chosen by the government. Biden want to reduce the military expenditures. PLTR is able to provide better service for lower cost. Not only the recent judgements also the political change will help PLTR. Ironic if you remember that Peter supported Trump and getting his tendies from Biden.
  1. PLTR superior products profits hugely from economy of scales. They don’t have any significant costs when they acquire new customers. Making the big data usable for decisions making is already very important and step by step people realize that this issue growing fast. We creating everyday more data than we did yesterday and leaving the majority of it as trace and unstructured data. We don’t work with it but big Institutions does.
Here is the passage from the S1 and I fully agree with it:
“The systemic failures of government institutions to provide for the public — fractured healthcare systems, erosions of data privacy, strained criminal justice systems, and outmoded ways of fighting wars — will continue to require both the public and private sectors to transform themselves. We believe that the underperformance and loss of legitimacy of many of these institutions will only increase the speed with which they are required to change.”
  1. PLTRs value. The current situation of the market with tons of liquidity seems like a bubble. People don’t know what to do with the cheap capital and people throwing it even on meme pennystocks.
Facebook had his ipo back in 2012 during much harder market conditions as now. The valuation of Facebook was over 100 billion and people called it insanely overvalued. They did it because Facebook didn’t had a way to monetize their users (especially on mobile platforms). Facebook has a market cap of over 750 billion now and nobody calling it over valued.
A remember the recent examples? Bumble?! Bruuuh. Don’t get me wrong if you invested in Bumble but they have nothing special to offer and their business case can easily copied or improved by others. Its shows the current state of our market with the crazy liquidity that even zombie companies got astronomic valuations. Use these metrics on PLTR with great products, great management, low cost base and less odds as ever before….
PLTR price is wrong imo especially in this market and with PLTRs current state and perspective.
  1. Do you use PLTR? Me Neither! It’s not designed for us and we have to inform us about the success. PLTRs new contracts and their future are shining bright. With the settled lawsuits the sky is clear for PLTR. But their customer base is not only America. I’m not a murican and 3 weeks before I just find out that the police departments in our state using PLTR products. I don’t need to link endless evidences here since you can google it by yourself and see how many contracts PLTR recently got. Especially after the circuit breakers we talked about.
I have genuinely trust into Peter Thiel and Alex Karp that their will make the best of PLTRs potential. The odds getting removed and the demand for PLTR is increasing.
If all these information would priced in correctly we would have a share price of at least 60-70$. With upcoming and ongoing positive events PLTR share price should soar more..
What’s next?
Now we have earnings ahead and the lock up period ending.
For the earnings I think the number will be fine and keep up the positive trend on revenue with a disproportionately trend of the costs. The most important part will be guidance for 2021. We should listen closely and see if the magic is already happening.
The second event is the ending of the lock up period. You all remember the end of the lock up period of Nikola? Just 1-2 days after they announced they don’t got the GM deal? The stock tanked – for a good reason. You know the guy Trevor Milton.
But in PLTRs case everything is different. Despite the successful deals they got, does a guy who says “love us or leave us alone” sounds like someone who going to drop his shares at the first possibility? I don’t expect such a behavior from Alex Karp and neither from Peter Thiel. If some employees drop their shares it should be fine.
I would appreciate if the stock prices would go below 3ß. It would create a healthy bullish chart pattern and would be actually a nice discount to get in or stock up. I don’t think that the shares going to dump a lot because of this event. The earnings and the guidance are more important and the key events if you want to invest mid – long term.
What does all this means for you? Nothing! Please don’t do any market activity based on my DD. I’m just sharing my knowledge and looking for critics so I can reevaluate my theses. This is not a financial advice.
This is not a financil advise!
I’m not well positioned and not trying to pump this stock. I have 70 shares and a CSP. Fair play and fuck all the bots and pump and dumper we recently got in the sub!
Leave an upvote if this post helped you. I need some more karma to be able to shitpost everywhere again!



OG: u/PutsOnYourWife Link: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lim9dk/pltr_dd_brain_cells_required_if_you_are_an_ape/
submitted by sllents to DueDiligenceArchive [link] [comments]

Juicy's First Official 2021 NFL Mock Draft (3 Rounds). Trades At The Top. Pick By Pick Analysis Continued In Comments.

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.
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The Cryopod to Hell 266: Belial's Rage

Author note: The Cryopod to Hell is a Reddit-exclusive story with over three years of editing and refining. As of this post, the total rewrite is 1,114,000+ words long, and we are all caught up to the main sub on HFY! For more information, check out the link below:
What is the Cryopod to Hell?
Join the Cryoverse Discord server!
Here's a list of all Cryopod's chapters, along with an ePub/Mobi/PDF version!
...................................
(Previous Part)
(Part 001)
...
First Day, Eighteenth Hour.
Ose, the Emperor of Infiltration, soars around Tarus II at blinding speeds, unconstrained by wind resistance, friction, or most other limitations placed upon mortal bodies. Only gravity exerts any pull on her invisible and immaterial ghost-body, preventing her from soaring to the heavens and leaving the planet behind.
She flickers from building to building inside Hero City's environmental shield, steadily growing more impatient and antsy as she scours every nook and cranny for the thing she needs most.
"Damn!" Ose shouts, after searching every inch of Jason Hiro's home, the giant building once owned by Bahamut. "It's not here, either! Where did Neil hide the devil-damned Trifrancium?!"
She pauses momentarily to hover just outside the house, scowling as she watches dozens of human commandos running around, traveling through the city to reinforce weakening positions on the border's defenses.
"I must have scoured every godforsaken building in this wretched shithole ten times! I've searched the prisons, the factories, even the stupid little huts on the city's outskirts... I've searched everywhere! Neil, you bloody bastard! Where did you hide it?!"
She paces back and forth in midair, hover-walking to make herself think more strategically.
"...It wasn't in the Core. If it was, then when Neil blew up the core, the Trifrancium would have detonated and left a planet-sized hole in the Labyrinth's center. A kilogram of Trifrancium has almost 50 gigatons of explosive yield; more than enough to irradiate the entirety of the Labyrinth and make it inhospitable to life for a million years. I cannot allow the humans to possess it any longer."
After a moment, Ose flicks her eyes upward.
"Perhaps Moonbase Kelkin? My Astral Body is constrained by this planet's gravity, so I can't travel there myself. What are the odds Neil would know that fact and plan accordingly? Bah! He could have hid the Trifrancium there for any number of reasons. If so, then it will remain out of my grasp until after I conquer these humans. I'll have to fly a ship up there afterward and take it back by force. Drat!"
She frowns. "Oh, devils. What if Neil hid the Trifrancium on one of humanity's other planets? He could have thrown it under some random rock and I'd never be able to find it. It's like looking for a needle in a hundred planet-sized haystacks! Utter insanity."
Ose's shoulders slump in defeat. "I need a drink."
The Emperor of Infiltration falls silent. She continues to hover in midair, thinking slowly and methodically about a great many things.
Jason hasn't made any moves since I last heard from him. It seems my Wordsmith-crippling device successfully bombarded him with chaotic energy. His magical conduits will need weeks to heal; more than enough time to uncover his hiding spot. Where the devil has he gone, anyway? He only showed up to the battlefield remotely, but also seems to have discovered an inexhaustible source of mana. There's no way the Jason I've observed could have continuously closed hundreds of portals for hours on end. Not even Hope could pull off such a feat.
And speaking of Hope; where has HE gone? Both Wordsmiths mysteriously vanished right as I initiated Stormbringer. Coincidence? Unlikely! They must be planning something. I can't just sit back and smile, thinking I've won this war. If I only capture one Wordsmith, I'll have to give him to Yama. That was the deal I agreed to, in exchange for the Shadow Emperor's help.
Hmph! On second thought, why should I abide by those terms? Yama's worthless Shades failed! They didn't capture Jason's daughter or wife! They died like useless, dried up bags of skarn-droppings. Forget Yama! If I only catch one Wordsmith, he'll be mine! What can Yama do anyway? He'll be going up against Hell's most intelligent Emperor and her Wordsmithing slave! He'd only end up guaranteeing his death! Yes, I like that idea much more.
Ose nods to herself. "An excellent plan. Jason will be out of commission for weeks while his magical circuits heal, leaving me plenty of time to take out humanity, capture his wife and daughter, and turn them into bargaining chips. I can interrogate Neil to uncover where he hid the Trifrancium, deliver it to the Overlords, and avert a catastrophe."
The Third Emperor smoothly flicks her eyes in all directions. She expands her senses, gathering intel from the battlefield, then turns her head to the east.
"What's that? A tremendous surge of mana? Ah, it's the Monster King. Looks like he's engaging with the Battle Brothers. Bah, they're durable. They can keep his attention for a while. Once Bael and I recover, we'll join with Artorias and Mephisto to kill that Sphinx once and for all. Oooh! Perhaps, if I can uncover the secret to his riddle magic, I might even take his powers for myself! Wouldn't that be the ultimate payoff? With a Wordsmith as my slave, and the Sphinx's body transformation powers to elevate my status, no other Emperor will dare to challenge my authority!"
Ose turns toward the west, then zips forward at hyperspeed, traveling several miles almost instantaneously. She arrives above the western front, between the Warpgate Encampment and the Horned forest, where humanity's defenses barely manage to hold the line. Every second, the humans and their monster allies battle to the death, killing ten times more demons than their forces lose as casualties, but even so, Ose's army slowly pushes forward with its unstoppable numerical advantage.
"Hehehe. It seems all is going well over- huh?"
Ose's eyes narrow to slits. She focuses her vision at the ground below her, where Artorias, the highest ranked demon among the western front's forces, engages in battle with an Emperor-level mana signature.
"What! Belial? Satan's whore?! What is she doing here?"
Ose gnashes her teeth. She flickers to a spot only a few hundred feet above the ground, where she watches in fascination as Belial punches away demons by the dozen. Every swing of her fist, capable of pulverizing mountains, blasts away Grunts and Lords like leaves in the wind. Only a few Barons manage to hold their ground, while Artorias suffers the most under Belial's attacks.
"Blast!" Ose curses. "Last time I checked, Belial had no mana left and was utterly exhausted! Why is she so full of energy now? Oh, let me guess! I'll bet Jason's last defiant act was to reinvigorate her with his devil-damned Wordsmithing! Well, isn't that just delightful?!"
It takes a few minutes of screaming and cursing the elder gods before Ose regains control of herself. She focuses her mind and turns her thoughts inward.
Belial and the Monster Royals are the only dangers left to successfully completing this operation. Unfortunately, it seems the Sphinx empowered himself at some point in the recent past, elevating his strength to that of a Duke, or perhaps even an Emperor! Not only that, but his wife possesses incredible strength, as well. Even if I assume the best, it's one Emperor and two Dukes battling one Duke and three Barons. Belial, Kar, and Blinker against Artorias, Mara, Duriel, and Zamiel. Weaker Barons won't matter in an engagement this lopsided.
Worse yet, if both Royals are indeed at Emperor-level strength, then I have no counterplay at all! Even if I show up with Bael, it will be three Emperors vs one Emperor, two Dukes, and three Barons.
Once again, Ose expands her senses, searching the battlefield for mana blips.
I don't understand. Where did Beelzebub go? Did he leave the battlefield without telling anyone? The last I heard, he left Mara and Artorias behind in the prisons, and then he disappeared off the face of the planet. Did the Wordsmith interfere? Did Jason kill him?
She shakes her head. No. Jason isn't a killer. He's too soft. It might have been Hope. Ah! That must be it! Hope probably turned himself invisible and decided to stalk the demon leaders from the shadows! That's exactly the sort of thing he'd do. I'll bet he attacked Beelzebub and... no, that still doesn't make any sense. Wordsmithing is powerful, but it's far from omnipotent. If Hope had fought Beelzebub, their encounter would have caused quite the uproar. I'd have noticed, for sure! Beelzebub must still be alive...
Ose's eyes twitch. Confusion appears on her face, along with hesitation.
I don't have enough information. I'm missing pieces. There's something off about this whole operation. Why haven't the devil-damned Wordsmiths appeared on the battlefield? Why haven't I heard a single thing from Hope? Why did Jason come here in soul-form? Could he be trapped somewhere? Did someone capture him after he left my palace? What is going on?! It's infuriating!
Her eyes turn cold.
I don't have a choice. I'll have to leave the battlefield for now. Vepar and Laharl have likely recovered, so I'll send them back to reinforce Artorias. Then, I'll return to the Blood Pits, interrogate Neil, and find out where he hid the Trifrancium.
Ose turns to the west again. She flies toward the now-open warpgate and flies through, smiling faintly.
That's right. I should focus on killing Belial first. It's unfortunate, but the Battle Brothers will have to act as sacrificial pawns. The Monster King has an old grievance with them. Therefore, he and his wife won't leave until they've killed both brothers. In the meantime, perhaps I can amass a force large enough to kill Belial. With her gone, the numbers will tilt significantly in my favor! Both Monster Royals against all of my forces? They won't stand a chance.
Ose disappears into the Labyrinth, laughing wickedly all the way.
"Hahaha! My hour will soon arrive! Total control of demonkind! My ascension to Second Emperor, and perhaps even First, once I find and eliminate the worthless bastard sitting uselessly on his fancy throne! I'll enslave the Wordsmiths and make the galaxy mine!"
"A new era of demonkind has all but arrived!"
...................................
Tarus II, Western Front.
Belial clashes with Artorias, the Duke of Steel. As the Second Emperor of demonkind, her bodily strength stands an entire tier above other Emperors, placing her at the absolute height of power any Demon will ever hope to possess.
Having assumed a terrifying form, Belial's beach-ball-sized head appears like a disfigured monster with dozens of eyes and a mouth filled with multiple rows of teeth. Her lower body is no less terrifying, sporting four arms, all of which possess five knife-shaped claws capable of turning flesh into sashimi. Her two legs are as thick as tree trunks, giving her the strength to kick her foes into the stratosphere or stomp them into meat-paste.
An apex predator, Belial not only battles the Duke of Steel, but even takes 'breaks' to eviscerate other demons nearby, ripping them limb from limb. Their horrified cries of pain disappear in an instant as the Emperor of Passion slaughters her kin wholesale.
"Belial!" Artorias shouts, after raising his arms to block one of her mountain-flattening kicks, "Argh! Stop! Have you gone insane?! You're killing your own people!"
Belial whips her freakishly large head toward him. The blood of chewed-up demons drips from her lips, while their entrails sit wedged between the gaps in her teeth. "Shut up, Artorias! You don't get to judge me! You attacked humanity, and now all who oppose me will perish! You made your bed... NOW LIE IN IT!"
Her voice, no longer soft, cute, and demure, sounds hoarse and vicious, like an eldritch monster fresh out of the deep sea. She lunges toward Artorias and headbutts him, knocking him on his ass and flinging him fifty feet away. Before Artorias can reorient himself, Belial rushes toward him and rears her leg back.
WHUMP!
Belial kicks Artorias like a football, blasting him into the air. Artorias goes flying. He spins and careens helplessly while hurtling up into the sky at unthinkable speeds.
Before he makes it a thousand yards, a portal appears in the sky before him.
Foop!
Artorias flies into the portal and exits out another one aimed at the ground. He only gets a second to register Tarus II's soil rushing at him before he crashes into the horde of demons below, instantly killing several dozen Scythers and Brutes. Artorias grinds against the dirt while riding a mushy meat-toboggan made of his now-deceased comrades. Several seconds later, he finally grinds to a stop and gasps for breath.
"Huk! Huk! Damn. Damn! Belial is... she's too much for me! She's monstrously powerful, like an unstoppable force of nature. Where is Ose at a time like this? We need her to deal with the Second Emperor!"
Artorias climbs to his feet while grimacing at the sensation of mashed demon parts squishing beneath his shoes.
After steadying himself, he turns his attention toward Belial's Emperor-level mana signature. With Barbatos's tall body, Artorias gazes over the waves of demons and undead, clearly able to pick out Belial's frenzying figure without any trouble.
"Seven Hells..." Artorias mutters. "I'm only one Duke. I can't even stall Belial on my own. All I have is my earth manipulation. Barbatos... if he were awake, he could use both our powers."
The Duke of Steel hesitates. He searches his mana conduits with his spiritual sense, only to find nothing.
"Uriel and Barbatos are both sleeping. I can tap into Uriel's magic for now. Having access to all four elements, plus light and dark manipulation, that would allow me to fight somewhat evenly with Belial. However, if I do that, there's a chance I might awaken Uriel. I cannot allow her to emerge!"
Grunts and Lords sweep around Artorias's motionless figure, avoiding bumping into him instinctively due to his Duke-level mana signature. He, in turn, ignores the flood of comrades surrounding him and grits his teeth.
"I cannot resist Uriel on my own. Only by combining my soul with Barbatos's can we prevent her from controlling us. In turn, I can only manipulate my brother's body when he and Uriel both fall dormant. Tch. If only I could tear the Archangel's soul out, my brother and I would become the strongest Duke in all the seven Hells, even beyond Bael. The power of two demons unified in one body would make us unstoppable among our peers."
Artorias shakes his head. "But even if that were the case... we still wouldn't match up to the Second Emperor. She isn't only an Emperor, but the strongest of our species. Only Satan himself could defeat her in battle, and that's only assuming a theoretical matchup."
The Duke of Steel crouches down to build up strength in his legs. He aims his gaze in Belial's direction and sighs.
If I can't beat her... I'll have to convince her to stop fighting!
A moment later, Artorias jumps skyward. His superior Duke strength allows him to jump half a mile with ease, leaping over the heads of all the grunts beneath him while gazing fixedly at Belial's rampaging form.
The Second Emperor roars like a mad lion, then pounces at a group of Burner demons. They panic and throw fireballs at her, but she ignores their pitiful attacks as if they were gnats timidly bumping against her nose. She opens her mouth and bites down, chomping three of the Burners in half, before swinging out her bladed arms to eviscerate those who remain.
Whump!
Artorias stomps into the dirt behind Belial and slides to a stop. He assumes a defensive position and shouts. "Belial! Stop fighting! We can talk about this! I understand that you're angry, but-"
"SHUT UP!!" Belial roars. She spins around to face Artorias with a crazed look in her eyes. "I ALREADY BROKE A SOLEMN VOW! NOW, I'LL BREAK YOU!"
Artorias sucks in a quick breath before Belial lunges at him. "Oh, spawn of a..."
He doesn't even see Belial's attack coming. She skitters along the ground like a lizard, clearing the short gap with lightning speed, then jumps into the air.
BOOM!
Belial's muscular legs stomp Artorias into the dirt, crushing the Duke with brute force. In one instant, he finds himself crouched and ready for anything, but in the next, the world turns upside down while stars dance in his eyes.
Artorias's helmet strikes a rock, pulverizing it into earthen powder. Belial pauses for a split second to spread out her bladed-fingers, then stabs them toward the Duke's chest.
Tink-tink-tink-CLANG!
Most of Belial's makeshift knives bend when they strike Artorias's sturdy demonstone armor, but a few find their way between the gaps in his armor and impale his vital organs.
"Argh!" Artorias shouts. He tries to push Belial away, but his strength proves wildly inferior to hers.
"It's too bad, Artorias!" Belial shouts. "I never disliked Barbatos! He wouldn't have chosen to come here! But you did! Now, you both will die for that decision, along with Uriel, too! At least I can finally give her the burial she deserves!"
"Wait, Belial! Stop! You're not a killer!" Artorias yells. "This isn't like you!"
A twisted grin plays across Belial's monstrous face. "I didn't choose this path, Artorias. You forced it on me. OSE forced it on me!"
Belial lifts her foot up.
BOOM!!
It crashes upon Artorias's chest, smashing him into a shallow crater in the dirt.
Boom! Boom! Boom!
Again and again, Belial stomps Artorias, overpowering him to the point he can't even offer even the feeblest resistance. His limbs hang off to the side uselessly, while he gasps for breath.
After bringing her heel down upon Artorias ten times, Belial hesitates. She takes a step back and scowls, the expression looking even more hideous upon her shapeshifted face.
"Barbatos saved Phoebe's life once. Out of respect for your little brother, I'll return the favor. Cross me again, and you will not be so lucky."
Artorias coughs. "Kuhuk... Ph-Phoebe? The... the Hero's wife?"
"That's right. I'm sure you remember it. Even if you don't, I couldn't care less. I'm only going to give you one warning, Artorias. STAY OUT OF MY WAY!"
Without another word, Belial departs. She jumps out of the six-foot-deep crater and disappears from Artorias's view, leaving him to cough out several wads of blood.
"Kuh! Kuh! Shit, I... oh, devils... she buh-... broke all my ribs..."
Suddenly, a demon flickers into existence inside the crater. Mara, the Baron of Games, dissipates a veil of invisibility surrounding her body and kneels beside Artorias to examine his condition.
"Stupid bastard," Mara mutters. "Do you have a death wish? Let Belial rampage for a while! So what if she kills a bunch of Grunts and Lords? We have trillions more lined up to die! You're lucky she spared you."
Artorias groans. "You... you were here... the whole time?"
"Of course I was. Unlike you, I'm not stupid enough to fight Belial directly. I just tried to slow her down from a distance, so as to not draw attention to myself. I stayed invisible, out of her line of sight. Like I said, you're a stupid bastard."
Mara motions with her hands. She casts a spell, summoning a magical card from her spiritual deck.
"...Wrong one. Sorry, give me a sec. I'll fix you up. I just need to draw the right card."
Artorias lays motionless, listening to the screams of other demons outside his crater. Many times, their cries of alarm instantly fall silent as Belial cuts them down.
"You..." Artorias coughs. "Did you... ever meet Satan?"
"Stop talking," Mara mutters. "It won't help your condition. And no, I didn't. He died before my broodmother whelped me."
Artorias's expression remains hidden beneath his helmet. Only a faint dimming of his glowing red eyes reveal the pain on his face.
"Belial... was the nicest... of all of us. Satan conquered. He killed. He slaughtered... but she never hated him. She always stood by his side... yet she also never partook in his violence."
Mara summons another card, then frowns. "Blast. Another dud. Thanks for the history lesson, but I'm trying to concentrate."
Artorias ignores her. "Were we wrong? We turned Belial... into a killer. Cough, cough. Somehow, all of this feels... so evil."
"Our enemies are fleshbags," Mara replies, her voice monotone. "They're inferior to demons. We will kill them, because that is our right. The weak should fear the strong."
She motions with her hands again to summon another card. When it appears, she breathes a sigh of relief. "Oh, thank the devils. Temporal Cricket, Evoke!"
A flash of golden light ignites in Mara's hands. It leaps upward, then falls down upon Artorias's body and envelops him in golden light.
Immediately, Artorias regenerates from all of the injuries he sustained. His ribs pop back into place, his concussion disappears, and all his lost blood flows back into his veins.
Ten seconds later, the golden light disappears, allowing Artorias to stand up. He stares at Mara incredulously.
"Your healing magic... it's incredible! That was just as potent as any spell Belial has ever cast!"
Mara rolls her eyes. "It wasn't healing magic. I merely reversed the flow of time on your body, returning it to a state from several minutes ago. It would have been useless if the injuries were more than ten or so minutes old."
"Oh," Artorias mutters. He glances toward the top of the crater and sighs. "Well, I owe you my thanks. And now, I must return."
Mara's expression falls. "Are you kidding me?! You're going to go back and fight Belial again?! You almost died! Next time, she'll kill you for sure!"
Artorias lowers his head to stare at Mara.
"Yes, that is true. However, a friend recently gave me an idea. Perhaps, instead of fighting Belial head-on, I should try slowing her down from a distance. I will travel underground and use my earth manipulation to hamper Belial's killing speed, at least until Ose, Bael, and the other reinforcements appear."
Mara sighs in relief. "Oh! Well, great, yes. Do that. Please. You're not Beelzebub; I'd hate to lose my second favorite Duke."
Artorias chuckles. "And the first is...?"
"Bael."
"Of course."
The Duke of Steel shakes his head and laughs. A moment later, he kicks the ground and sucks into the dirt, disappearing into the planet's bowels.
Mara taps her foot, then draws a card.
"Dammit. Another dud. Oh, well. The next one will be what I need, for sure! I have the heart of the cards!"
Next Part
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