*Its been a few months.. and it's about that time that I make a shit post where I bitch about everything*

To all my fellow US players getting fucked in the ass per usual... WHAT THE FUCK DO I HAVE TO DO TO USE A HONEST POKER SITE!?

It's 2021 and it has been almost a decade since I have been able to use a worthy-poker-site such as Full Tilt, Stars, 888, Party Poker, and so on. I am starting to fall out of love with poker because I can't keep playing on these bullshit sites located in Panama and throughout the Caribbean. Here are a couple of my experiences from the past 8-ish months or so.

ACWPN/BCP:
- 2 to 4 months ago I received 2 PARTIAL refunds due to bots being at my table, in which one scenario was a final table. Didn't even get a full fucking refund. This also doesn't mention the other partial refunds I received earlier in 2020.
- As you all well know, ACR has had multiple scandals going back to 2012, like the the 2018-2019 PLO/NL cash game bots and several people colluding together to take advantage of the late reg glitch. Nagy can eat a fat dick.
- If you play at America's Cardroom in 2021 you're a fucking retard. (No offence)

Betonline/BOL:
- 6 months ago Betonline removed $1000 from my poker balance on my account and said that the money was transferred to my sportsbook balance at 4am PST and all of it was spent in the online casino. When I asked them to investigate they did nothing. So I asked their Fraud/IT Department to send me a list of all devices, MAC addresses, and IP addresses that signed into my account that day... They refused to cooperate... Customer service said it was against company policy to release that type of information, even though its MY OWN fucking account and personal information. ( I took a break from the site but eventually returned because US players have no options and I love MTTs.)
- 2 months ago I deposited $50 of ETH to their sports book to bet on an NFL game. Blockchain.com confirmed that BOL's Etheruem address received my money, and I even sent customer service proof of the transaction THREE TIMES. They still refuse to issue me my $50 deposit to this day, stating "our system says the deposit is still pending".
- 2 days ago I received a $5 refund from a Windfall Sit n Go because the 2 other two players at my table were bots :) :) :) I should just kill myself at this point. WHO THE FUCK HAS BOTS AT THE JACK POT SIT N GO.

Bovada/Ignition:
- Honestly, I haven't used them in like a year or two because they removed the chat box, make it a pain to utilize HUD software, and that fucking update they did to their software. That huge software update was so fucking horrible the sites damn near unplayable. I'm sure you guys remember the old canvas/layout that Bovada/Iggy use to utilize, it was way better.

Anyways, I just don't know what to do anymore. I NEVER had any of these issues back in the Full Tilt days. I don't even want to play half the time because I'm sick of all the bullshit. I am also in Los Angeles, CA so the lockdown bullshit makes live poker a huge pain in the ass. Some casinos are open, some are closed, some are outside, some make you wear mask and sit in between plastic dividers, some allow you to order drinks but not food. It's all fucking stupid. I really want to use my VPN but I don't want to build up a bankroll on a legit site like PartyPoker and then have my funds frozen. Maybe I should just hang myself instead. (joking, just being a dramatic pussy)

On a serious note, thank you for listening to me bitch and moan about my first world problems. I hope ya'll are happy, healthy and staying covid-free. Cheers to 2021, MAY THE POKER GODS BE IN YOUR FAVOR!

Hi,
So i've finally decided to play online raked games on Bovada/Ignition to improve my game. A little bit of background: I play in numerous home games (on pokerNow) that are .5/1 and 1/2. I've logged 185k hands in since Jan 2020 and have a winrate of 7.4BB/100 (no rake which is why it's higher) for .5/1 and 3.5BB/100 for 1/2. I'm confident i'm a winning player at these stakes, but I'd like to learn how to play the actual online scene. I'm thinking of starting at either 10NL or 25NL but I honestly think i'd get crushed at 25NL as I have absolutely no idea how to use HUD stats.
Could someone give me a breakdown of what HUD stats I should download for either Bovada or Ignition and how to work it?

Thanks

I would say that I'm relatively new to Reddit and the one thing that surprised me is the number of people that still play on Bovada, Ignition, Betonline, MyBookie, etc. Don't get me wrong, great sites for sports betting and poker, but absolutely horrendous when it comes to slots and live casino games.
Hitting 1,000x on a slot on Bovada is like a once in a lifetime achievement and the live dealer provider is... awful.
Over the past month or so, I have seen this Reddit flooded with random users promoting a bunch of shitty no-name crypto casinos that have been around for like 3 days. So I figured it was my duty, as somebody who has no ownership interests in any of these online crypto casinos, to share my thoughts regarding the ones that I believe are trustworthy. All of which is based on first-hand experience and countless hours of research.
First off, for those who aren't familiar with crypto casinos, the one thing that you need to know, as an American, is that you'll need to access these sites via a VPN. Personally, I use ExpressVPN and connect to Canada (or various other regions depending on which slot provider is available). The nice thing about ExpressVPN is that you can download the app and play on your phone. All of the casinos listed below allow VPN usage. Apparently NordVPN is pretty good too, but I cannot vouch for them personally.
Second thing, KYC is not required. Honestly haven't looked into this too much, but I can tell you from first-hand experience that KYC is not required in order to register or withdraw funds. All you have to do is confirm your email address. Some people have said you get KYC'd if you try to withdraw more than $2k, but again, I can confirm that it's not true (specifically for the casinos listed below). Just make sure that you only deposit/withdraw via crypto and you'll be fine. If you think this is sketchy, then please, continue making your credit card deposits at Bovada to random shell companies based out of China.
Also, DO NOT USE COINBASE TO TRANSFER TO AND FROM THE CASINO. They banned me. It hurt. Don't make the same mistake. I recommend using BRD as an intermediary between Coinbase and the casino. Since being banned from Coinbase, I have been using crypto.com to buy and sell crypto. Nothing but good things to say thus far.
Finally, I have wagered roughly $3.5MM in total across the sites below and have spent countless hours researching them, so I'd like to think that I somewhat know what I'm talking about. In no way am I an expert and in no way am I a high roller or a whale. Just a regular guy that enjoys gambling.
Now the common theme amongst the below casinos is that you have access to game providers such as Evolution (live games), Pragmatic, NetEnt, Thunderkick, Push, etc. that you'll never find on the casinos advertised as available to US players (such as Bovada). As I'm sure you know, Betsoft slots can get old after a while.
Just a few of my personal favorite games that I recommend you check out...
Live Games: Crazy Time, Monopoly, Evolution Blackjack and Evolution Speed Baccarat
Slots: Dead or Alive 2, Money Train 2, Lil' Devil, Sweet Bonanza and The Dog House

Site #1: Roobet.com (Best for casual gamblers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, generous rakeback system, instant bitcoin deposits (they will credit your account before receiving any confirmations-- this is really nice), every so often they'll run a 24 hour promotion where if you hit 100x on slot betting at least $1 you'll be "King Roo" (basically King of the Hill) and accumulate ~$20 per minute until you're dethroned
What I don't like: Rakeback system only allows you to collect every 24 hrs/1 week/1 month, no clarity surrounding VIP status (assuming you need to be a whale), there was one instance where I won $36k on a $40 bet playing Reactoonz and was told I can only withdraw $10k per day (this was 6 months ago and never had an issue withdrawing since), lack of sports betting
My largest withdrawal (at once): $9.9k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH
Referral link to enable rakeback system without having to wager a shitload: https://roobet.com/?ref=hkgambler13 (you can also use code "hkgambler13")

Site #2: Stake.com (Best for medium-high rollers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, incredible VIP and rakeback system (weekly/monthly bonuses, rakeback can be claimed whenever, daily/monthly challenges to earn extra cash), active and friendly chat community, multiple crytpo deposit options where your account is credited in that currency (meaning your balance equivalent in USD will swing with the market-- could be seen as a con), enjoyable "Stake Original" games that have a higher RTP than 3rd party slots, averages ~2k users online at any given time
What I don't like: Can be overwhelming for first time players (Roobet is much more straight forward and easy to use)
My largest withdrawal: $13.2k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH, LTC, DOGE, BCH, XRP (highly recommend-- cheap transfer fee, if any at all, and confirmed within seconds), TRX, EOS
Referral link to instantly enable 10% rakeback: https://stake.com/?c=6c2f1c60

Site #3: Gamdom.com (Best for gamers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, newly implemented rakeback system, constant "rains" in the chat (which is free money if you join in time), ability to instantly deposit and withdraw via Rust and TF2 items (could spend an hour talking about this-- generally caters to those who cannot get crypto or have to use a CC to buy crypto), averages ~1.5k users online at any given time
What I don't like: Prior to the newly implemented rakeback system rains and level-up chests were the only "rakeback", your balance is denominated in coins (1500 coins = $1 USD), browsing through their slot selection can be a pain in the ass
My largest withdrawal (at once): $7.4k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC
Referral link to receive a free chest that could be worth up to ~$53: https://gamdom.com/chase (you can also use code "chase")

Final parting words: PLEASE DO NOT GAMBLE WITH MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE. Gambling is not a money making method and you will lose in the long run. The purpose of my post is to make those aware that other trustworthy online casinos are available for Americans that will (hopefully) make gambling online a bit more enjoyable!

Hello, going to be honest here I’m old and have very little knowledge on technology. To put it simply I need to use Bitcoin to play poker online in my state. What is the easiest and simplest way for someone like me to set up a Bitcoin account to deposit some money on Bovada poker using Bitcoin? Thank you all in advance.

WARNING - LONG
I haven’t seen any AMA threads in a while, and I always found those super interesting to read. I also got a lot of inspiration from ChicagoJoey’s podcasts, as I have found them all to be great listens, and I usually have something to take away from it. Now that being said, I thought I would like to offer some insight as to what it’s like to be a SNG pro, but you could also ask me anything else as well! I don’t have anywhere close to the success of the poker players that some of the MTT/Cash crushers have had, but I do make a solid living. I don’t like giving out numbers, but I’ll show a bit of my Sharkscope graph. Keep in mind though, that the graphs don’t show rebuys, which means I’m making less than what the graphs show, since it’s typical to rebuy in the games I play in (lots of On Demand SNGs).

June - https://imgur.com/a/qVSqieR
July - https://imgur.com/a/ncaX1nI
Current month - https://imgur.com/a/hiC0dji
For those of you who also play on ACWPN, you’ll know that I’m on top of the SNG leaderboard every week that I play, earning an extra $1,250 a week + rakeback (until recently when they nerfed the top spots to $500).
I thought I’d start with a little background on myself, both to show my history as well as a warning sign to others. I started playing poker around 12 years ago, right when I turned 18. Because I had no idea what I was doing, I jumped right into 100 NL and lost a ton (probably a few thousand). Then I played some SNGs and had some success, playing 9 mans and HUSNGs, and then dabbled in tournaments. However, I was HORRIBLE at bankroll management, since I had no idea what it meant. I played on both Stars and Full Tilt at the time, and was able to make some decent money. However, because of the early success (besides the cash games), I also had very poor spending habits (not being used to having all the money and then coming into a decent amount suddenly). I’d buy new phones all the time, and I also used to play pool (billiards) a ton, so I bought a few pool cues that ended up costing quite a bit as well. To top it off, I was playing in the FTOPS (Full Tilt Online Poker Series, basically like WCOOP or SCOOP) tournaments through satellites, and was able to play in a good amount of them. Looking back, I cringed at thinking about spending $2,650 on a single bullet of a tournament when it was almost my entire bankroll. If I was smarter, I would have converted the money into tournament dollars and have a decent amount of money to grind with.
Anyways, soon after that, Black Friday came. Even though I had some very mild success in poker, I was nowhere good enough to be a pro to move out of the country. I was still playing poker though and hopping around several sites (Lock Poker, Bovada, Carbon Poker), just playing here and there and still not taking the game seriously enough. Personally, I think it came from having everything handed to me early. Until college hit, I’ve pretty much always had good grades without even trying, which I believe ended up instilling terrible habits in me (like never working on my game). And this is where I want to warn all people that potentially want to go pro in poker: You probably shouldn’t do it unless you are super passionate about the game. If you truly want to make money, you need a mindset to constantly improve. Personally, I felt like I shouldn’t have made it, because I was fucking around for way too long, playing every single game format, and not really sticking to anything, or studying at all. However, I was extremely stubborn about making the poker dream work, and eventually something clicked. Even though I kept failing, and was so unfocused for so long, I eventually found some moderate success. I can’t say exactly what the turning point was, but I think the constant inspiration that came from all the podcasts, combined with all the self-help material I was consuming, as well as getting disciplined in my workouts/diet that did it. I just needed constant reminders to work at it, even though I didn’t want to most of the time.
I could keep going about my playing history, but I will speed it up and say that I eventually landed in playing SNGs, and forced myself to stick with it. However, this wasn't a smooth ride. My approach was backwards, since I was more focused on trying to win the leaderboard at the time. I would mass table (24-30 games) trying to get that top leaderboard spot, but I was seriously lacking in fundamentals and making some heavy mistakes at the tables. So even though I got the $500/$1,250 (since when I started playing on WPN, I wasn’t always able to get $1250), often times that wouldn’t even offset the losses that I had for the week. Once I started putting more time in the lab, then the profit started pouring in.
This brings me to another point that I want to make: TALK TO PEOPLE/MAKE POKER FRIENDS. I’ve been very shy my whole life, and even though I constantly read the advice about making poker friends and talking about hands, I’ve never done it. I always felt like I could do it on my own without any help. And the result? I did make it eventually, but not talking to anybody about poker probably slowed my progress exponentially. Honestly, there’s so many things I wished I could have redone when learning poker, but hopefully my experience will help those on a similar path to not make those mistakes.
Now, onto the AMA. You can really ask me anything! It doesn’t have to be poker related at all. If you don’t know what to ask, here are some ideas:
Poker Related:

Toughest regs in my games
Current Setup/Studying Tools
What I think about the SNG ecosystem
Attainable ROIs
Why I decided to settle in SNGs
Bankroll management
How I think relationships affect poker

Non poker related:

Routines/fitness/mindset/meditation (well I guess that does relate to poker lol)
When will the Knicks be good?
What I had for lunch
Tech
Stocks
Credit Cards

Another thing I want to point out: Don’t be afraid to ask questions, even if they make you sound like a noob/dumbass! Sometimes those questions will help you grow the most. No matter how dumb/newbie the question is, I will do my best to answer every question whenever I can and comprehensively.
Lastly, the unfortunate shameless plug. My Twitch username is the same as here: Twitch.tv/Cheesebunnies. I recently decided to stream my sessions for 3 main reasons:

To get out of my comfort zone and do something different (I’m pretty introverted and wanted to put myself out there because I’m always worried about being judged/not good enough).
Being that I have very little presence in the poker community (due to being a hermit both online and in real life), I wanted to put myself out there to start trying to coach people. I’ve found that teaching people feels very rewarding, especially when you get a student to suddenly click on an idea once you’ve imparted that knowledge.
Expanding on the 2nd point, I wouldn’t be here without the podcasts/mentors. I feel like teaching would spread the cycle of giving back, and I also hope that is reflected in the posts/comments that I make.

At some point, I plan to give an hour of free coaching away, so please follow and I’ll hold a giveaway on stream at some point in the future! As for the schedule, I plan on streaming later today and tomorrow at 3PM EST, but after that, I don't have a set schedule. My plan is to update the stream schedule on Twitch on a week by week basis. So now, ask away!

I would say that I'm relatively new to reddit and the one thing that surprised me is the number of people that still play on Bovada, Ignition, Betonline, MyBookie, etc. Don't get me wrong, great sites for sports betting and poker, but absolutely horrendous when it comes to slots and live casino games.
Hitting 1,000x on a slot on Bovada is like a once in a lifetime achievement and the live dealer provider is... awful.
Over the past month or so, I have seen this subreddit flooded with random users promoting a bunch of shitty no-name crypto casinos that have been around for like 3 days. So I figured it was my duty, as somebody who has no ownership interests in any of these online crypto casinos, to share my thoughts regarding the ones that I believe are trustworthy.
First off, for those who aren't familiar with crypto casinos, the one thing that you need to know, as an American, is that you'll need to access these sites via a VPN. Personally, I use ExpressVPN and connect to Canada (or various other regions depending on which slot provider is available). The nice thing about ExpressVPN is that you can download the app and play on your phone. All of the casinos listed below allow VPN usage.
Second thing, KYC is not required. Honestly haven't looked into this too much, but I can tell you from first-hand experience that KYC is not required in order to register or withdraw funds. Some people have said you get KYC'd if you try to withdraw more than $2k, but again, I can confirm that it's not true (specifically for the casinos listed below). Just make sure that you only deposit/withdraw via crypto and you'll be fine. If you think this is sketchy, then please, continue making your credit card deposits at Bovada to random shell companies based out of China.
Also, DO NOT USE COINBASE TO TRANSFER TO AND FROM THE CASINO. They banned me. It hurt. Don't make the same mistake. I recommend using BRD as an intermediary between Coinbase and the casino.
Finally, I have wagered roughly $3.5MM in total across the sites below and have spent countless hours researching them, so I'd like to think that I somewhat know what I'm talking about. In no way am I an expert and in no way am I a high roller or a whale. Just a regular guy that enjoys gambling.
Now the common theme amongst the below casinos is that you have access to game providers such as Evolution (live games), Pragmatic, NetEnt, Thunderkick, Push, etc. that you'll never find on the casinos advertised as available to US players (such as Bovada). As I'm sure you know, Betsoft slots can get old after a while.
Just a few of my personal favorite games that I recommend you check out...
Live Games: Crazy Time, Monopoly, Evolution Blackjack and Evolution Speed Baccarat
Slots: Dead or Alive 2, Money Train 2, Lil' Devil, Sweet Bonanza and Dog House

Site #1: Stake
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, incredible VIP and rakeback system (weekly/monthly bonuses, rakeback can be claimed whenever, daily/monthly challenges to earn extra cash), active and friendly chat community, multiple crytpo deposit options where your account is credited in that currency (meaning your balance equivalent in USD will swing with the market-- could be seen as a con), enjoyable "Stake Original" games that have a higher RTP than 3rd party slots, averages ~2k users online at any given time
What I don't like: Honestly I spent like 30 minutes trying to think of a con and nothing came to mind
My largest withdrawal: $13.2k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH, LTC, DOGE, BCH, XRP (highly recommend-- cheap transfer fee, if any at all, and confirmed within seconds), TRX, EOS
You might be able to enter my username to enable the10% rakeback: "hkgambler13" (been a while since I joined so I can't remember).

Site #2: Roobet
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, generous rakeback system, instant bitcoin deposits (they will credit your account before receiving any confirmations-- this is really nice), every so often they'll run a 24 hour promotion where if you hit 100x on slot betting at least $1 you'll be "King Roo" (basically King of the Hill) and accumulate ~$20 per minute until you're dethroned
What I don't like: Rakeback system only allows you to collect every 24 hrs/1 week/1 month, no clarity surrounding VIP status (assuming you need to be a whale), there was one instance where I won $36k on a $40 bet playing Reactoonz and was told I can only withdraw $10k per day (this was 9 months ago and never had an issue withdrawing since), lack of sports betting
My largest withdrawal: $9.9k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH
If you want to enable the rakeback system without having to wager a shitload, feel free to use my code "hkgambler13".

Site #3: Gamdom
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, newly implemented rakeback system, constant "rains" in the chat (which is free money if you join in time), ability to instantly deposit and withdraw via Rust and TF2 items (could spend an hour talking about this-- generally caters to those who cannot get crypto or have to use a CC to buy crypto), averages ~1.5k users online at any given time
What I don't like: Prior to the newly implemented rakeback system rains were the only "rakeback", your balance is denominated in coins (1500 coins = $1 USD), browsing through their slot selection can be a pain in the ass
My largest withdrawal: $7.4k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC
If you use my code "chase" you'll get a free chest that could be worth up to ~$53.

Final parting words: PLEASE DO NOT GAMBLE WITH MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE. Gambling is not a money making method and you will lose in the long run. The purpose of my post is to make those aware that other trustworthy online casinos are available for Americans that will (hopefully) make gambling online a bit more enjoyable.
Happy to answer any questions!

Last week I commented "I honestly think Coastal will win outright with their weapons at offense, but taking +7 is the more conservative option." If only I had made the ML an official play. Womp womp!
Hoping to get things rolling in Week 3

Week 2 Recap

1u - Louisiana +11.5 at Iowa State for -110 = Win
1u - UTEP +43 at Texas for -110 = Loss
2u - UL Monroe +19 at Army for +100 = Loss
2u - Coastal Carolina +7 at Kansas for -104 = Win

Week 2 Picks went 2-2 for -0.1 units
Season Total Picks: 3-4 for -1.3 units

Week 3 Picks

1u - Baylor -6 vs Houston for -115
1u - Miami +2.5 at Louisville for -105
2u - Troy -3 at MTSU for -105

Added Picks:

1u - UCF vs Georgia Tech u63 for -110

-------------
If you are opening an account at an online Sportsbook, I suggest Bovada or BetOnline.
For Bovada, feel free to use my link to get a bonus: https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A59D31C/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
For BetOnline, feel free to use this link for a bonus: https://beta.betonline.ag/?RAF=YINTIRD5&product=SPO

I personally think getting +2200 odds on the 3rd-5th best current qb in the league is amazing value. Let’s be honest, this award is completely narrative driven and the Texans have been DRAGGED through the mud this offseason (for good reason). But I definitely think it’s very plausible for them to have a couple big wins and somehow go 11-5 or 12-4 and for him to win the MVP. I like Rivers odds too at +3500. Please share your thoughts.
Googled these odds on a bovada link so excuse me if they’re off.

This daily Reddit threads goal is to share referral program links in the form of a chain system. To be included in the referral chain; one must submit verification of referral completion (a screenshot will suffice) and their referral link via pm or in a response to the thread to keep it honest. We should all make money from this community. I aim to include as many referral programs possible.
Each referral comes with a warning if there is risk involved. I believe in full transparency.
If your looking for the best affiliate program, you've found it! We help each other here and everyday we change the links to share the wealth.
All of the refer a friend programs we've found will be listed below. I am trying to create the most amazing referral exchange on the internet with full transparency.
Our hope is to help you get paid daily by these Referral programs in exchange for you being the referee! When you ask how to get referrals for websites online, this thread should be your first answer!!!
Make sure to include your referral ID when submitting your link referral.
Banks
Referral link-
SoFi Money: $50 for depositing $500 from any source.
https://www.sofi.com/invite/money?gcp=e65d8ea1-fd35-40bc-b801-547c3fc6e749
SoFi is a bank/app that give out $50 for anyone who signs up for a SoFi Money (bank) account using a referral code and deposits $500 from any source. So all you have to do is open an account with a referral link, deposit $500, and then instantly collect the bonus and then take it all back.
And you can close the account at any time with no fees or consequences
referral link-
https://www.sofi.com/invite/money?gcp=e65d8ea1-fd35-40bc-b801-547c3fc6e749
SoFi Invest: $50 for $1000 deposit from any source, and $25 worth of bitcoin for buyin g $10 worth of bitcoin on SoFi Crypto.
https://www.sofi.com/share/invest/3285551
Chime: $50 for $200 direct deposit (can easily get around direct deposit requirement, please see details below).
Chime is a bank/app which pays you a $50 bonus for opening an account via a referral code making a $200 direct deposit. There are no catches, and you can close the account at any time fee free as soon as you register their debit card (gotta wait a few days to get it in the mail).
A "direct deposit" technically means that they want you to deposit the money right from payroll, Social Security, or other direct payment, but you can actually meet this requirement simply by transferring in $200 from virtually any source including bank accounts, cashapp, etc.
referral link- https://chime.com/jesselewis11
Aspiration: $50 for spending $250 with their debit card within 3 months, and extra $100 for $1000 spend in 3 months.
https://my.aspiration.com/app/token/referral/6VPHJ09AP6QEV78Jb
Aspiration is an online bank which is offering a free $50 bonus for simply opening an account via a referral link and spending $250, and an extra $100 for $1000 spend in 3 months.
So all you have to do is open an account using a referral link, spend $250/1000 using their debit card within 3 months, and then you will get $50/150 added to your account! No fees and close whenever you want.
referral link- https://my.aspiration.com/app/token/referral/6VPHJ09AP6QEV78J
Stash: $20 for $5 deposit from any source.
https://get.stash.com/jesse_gqcj7qh
Stash is a finance app that gives out $20 for anyone who signs up for the Stash bank or Stash Invest account via this referral link and deposits at least $5 from any source. So all you have to do to get the bonus is open an account with a referral link and deposit $5.
We recommend opening a beginner account for $1 a month, and to then close your account after 1 month after you get your $20 bonus.
referral link- https://get.stash.com/jesse_gqcj7qh
N26
To earn 5 dollars: All you have to do is use your new N26 card to make a purchase of $10 or more.
https://n26.com/jessel0355
Card.com
This referral program is very easy all you have to do is set up $200 worth of direct deposits in 30 days and you will receive a $50 bonus.
https://www.card.com/referral-invite/10153558?chn=raf-f&raf_version=8dfad0e

Stocks
Webull: 2 free stock (worth $8-$ 1600 each) for opening an account and making a $100 deposit.
https://act.webull.com/mo/xZWa45w2qoXgbi/inviteUs/
Webull is a commission free stock trading platform/app which is giving out 2 free stocks (worth $8-$1600 each) for opening an account via this ever-changing referral link and making a $100 deposit.
Webull can be used on iOS, Android or the website.
referral link- https://act.webull.com/mo/xZWa45w2qoXgbi/inviteUs/
Public: 1 free stock worth up to $50 for opening an account.
http://share.public.com/daysndaze
Public is another commission free stock trading app which gives you a free stock (valued up to $50) when you create an account with this referral link. No initial deposit is required.
Available on iOS or Android.
referral link- http://share.public.com/daysndaze
FirstTrade: 1 free stock worth $3 - $200 (I got Microsoft!) simply for opening an account. No deposit required.
https://share.firstrade.com/MilaAQOK
FirstTrade is a commission-free stock trading app which gives you a free stock (valued up to $200) when you open an account via a referral link. No initial deposit is required.
Available on iOS or Android only.
referral link- https://share.firstrade.com/MilaAQOK
Dough: 1 free stock worth $2 - $200 simply for opening an account. No deposit required ($25 deposit required before first withdrawal, but you can then withdraw that too).
https://dough.com/referrals?referral=5BKGKBR95V&referredby=Jesse
Dough is a commission free stock trading app which gives you a free stock (valued $2- $200) when you open an account via a referral link. No initial deposit is required, though you need to deposit $25 in order to make your first withdrawal (you can also withdraw your initial $25 too).
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TradeUP is a commission free stock trading app which gives you a free stock (valued $2.50-250) for opening an account via a referral link. No deposit required.
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Cryptocurrency
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Referral link-
iOS/Android
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The Academy Awards nominations will be announced early on Monday morning, with a slew of contenders still in the mix. This year, the race feels more wide open than usual.
Similarly, the NBA title landscape feels more wide open than usual as well in a post KD-Warriors era. Of course, some teams have better chances than others. Let's take a look at some of the top contenders, linked together with their Oscar-hopeful counterparts.
New York Knicks as... CATS
Cats is one of the most successful and beloved Broadway musicals of all time. The New York Knicks are one of the most storied and successful NBA franchises of all time. And if you were born after 1980, you wouldn't know that at all.
Yet despite that, Cats and the Knicks took a bold gambit to compete this year, with spectacularly unsuccessful results. The Cats film adaptation cost a reported $90 million (and probably more), and got back CGI that looks more fitting of a Neal Breen B-picture. Meanwhile, the Knicks splurged on more than $60 million in salary on power forwards alone, with only Marcus Morris living up to the contract so far.
Sacramento Kings as... THE GOLDFINCH
What the hell is The Goldfinch, you ask? We can't blame you for that ignorance. The movie came and went in a flash, despite a very impressive pedigree and high expectations. The 2013 Donna Tartt novel that it's based on won the Pulitzer Prize, leading to a studio bidding war and a high-profile adaptation starring Nicole Kidman. Unfortunately, the film was a clunker, scoring just 24% approval on rottentomatoes.
Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings came into this season with high expectations for the first time in a while, fresh on the heels of a solid 39-43 season. Unfortunately, this season has been another clunker, causing the team to stumble back to a 15-24 start. There's still young talent here and a potential bright future, but the team may be rethinking its choice of director.
San Antonio Spurs as... A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
There was a time when a Tom Hanks Oscar vehicle would be a frontrunner for the Academy Awards. A few decades later, Hanks continues to chug along and make solid content, but the idea of his movies winning it all again may be behind him. The formula (the likable Hanks as a real life hero like Walt Disney or Sully Sullenbeger or Mr. Rogers) is enough to keep them afloat but not enough to grab the trophy in a world with evolving taste.
Clearly, the venerable San Antonio Spurs are having their same issues. Once a dominant power, they're sifting into "pretty good" status just like A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. For them, making the playoffs, extending their streak, and staying relevant is the real goal.
Portland Trail Blazers as... FORD V FERRARI
Most movies stall out in the development stage, and only get the greenlight once they land a big name star to slap on the marquee. If you can get one? Great. If you can get two? You're gold! Given that, Matt Damon and Christian Bale paired together in a prestige picture sounds like a home run. Unfortunately for the movie, it feels like theirs may be running behind in a crowded field (currently given +5000 odds to win.)
Meanwhile, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum may be feeling the same way. It's not often you get high-scoring guard on one team -- let alone two. Yet, despite that, the injuries and holes on the rest of the roster have caused the Blazers to slip behind in the crowded race out West. It'll take a comeback for them to even make the field this year.
Oklahoma City Thunder as... RICHARD JEWELL
Director Clint Eastwood recreated the true-life story of security guard Richard Jewell, who was falsely accused for a bombing (the one in Atlanta, not Oklahoma City.) More than anything, the movie's an indictment of the FBI and the media for jumping to conclusions and locking into a narrative before the facts played out.
Sam Presti, Billy Donovan, and the Oklahoma City Thunder may be feeling the same way. After the Russell Westbrook and Paul George trades, OKC was supposed to be terrible. They were supposed to be heading into a deep, dark rebuild that would take 3-4 years at least. As it turns out, that may have been jumping to conclusions. Between Chris Paul and company, there's still a lot of quality veteran talent on this team. Currently at 22-16, they may be a dangerous team in R1 presuming they don't... wait for it... blow it up.
Dallas Mavericks as... THE TWO POPES
Reminiscent of Netflix's show The Crown, feature The Two Popes tells an intimate and personal story about global icons. Here, we see two pontiffs ruminate about their lives and their views on the church. Ultimately, the aging and old-school German Pope Benedict passes the baton to the more modern and progressive Pope Francis.
Meanwhile, in Dallas, we've seen a similar passing of the torch. German icon Dirk Nowitzki ruled the Mavericks for over a decade, but has ultimately handed the reins over to Luka Doncic. Like Pope Francis, Doncic has immediately brought new life to the team and captured the hearts of millions across the globe. Although to be fair, the affable and humble Nowitzki stands in contrast to the curmudgeonly Benedict (as played by Anthony Hopkins.)
Indiana Pacers as... BOMBSHELL
Hm. Uh. Okay, let's be honest, I got nothing here. Still, this gives you a chance to visual T.J. McConnell being asked to dress "sexier" for television. Heck, maybe this is how the Fox News mandate all started -- Roger Ailes developed his fetish for tall blondes after a crush on Rik Smits.
Toronto Raptors as... MARRIAGE STORY
Writedirector Noah Baumbach's intimate and personal Marriage Story is less about a marriage, and more about a divorce. Adam Driver's Charlie agonizes as his spouse leaves him behind to start a new life in Los Angeles. Their separation is agonizing and uncomfortable, but ultimately may lead to some peace of mind for them both.
Similarly, the Toronto Raptors have been dealing with the wake of Kawhi Leonard's own departure to sunny L.A. And to their credit, they've handled it with little stress or wall punching at all, staying relevant in the Eastern Conference playoff chase. Realistically, Toronto and Marriage Story aren't likely contenders to win the overall trophy, but simply making it into the field is a proud achievement for them nonetheless.
Philadelphia 76ers as... JOJO RABBIT
A satiric comedy about a young boy named Jojo and his ol' buddy Adolf Hitler? Why, that sounds like an insane idea and a potential tonal disaster. Yet, somehow, it all works, thanks to the quirky genius of director Taika Waititi, a product of New Zealand.
In Philadelphia, genius Sam Hinkie had his own insane idea: losing and losing and losing some more. There may have been some growing pains here and there, but overall it's been a success as the Sixers are among the best in the league (albeit not likely to actually win it all.) If they're going to crack through, they'll need their young center Jojo Embiid and their own Oceaniac talent Ben Simmons to find the right balance and tone themselves.
Boston Celtics as... LITTLE WOMEN
At first blush, you may think a comparison to "Little Women" would be an insult, but maybe it's time for you to check your TOXIC MASCULINITY!! at the door. After all, these particular Little Women do a fine job in Greta Gerwig's movie (highlighted by young stars Saoirse Ronan and Florence Pugh) portraying plucky siblings who come together and soldier on as a family when their dad heads off to war.
In Boston, there was some uncertainty about what would happen when wannabe-daddy Kyrie Irving checked out. But rather than fold, the family has rallied together, highlighted by their own young stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. In fact, this year's version of the Boston Celtics rank higher in virtually every category (W-L, SRS, offensive rating, defensive rating) than last season's team. Can they actually win the title? That's unlikely. But their future remains as bright as the likes of Gerwig/Ronan/Pugh.
Miami Heat as... KNIVES OUT
Well-regarded director Rian Johnson scored the biggest break of his career when he got tapped to direct Star Wars: The Last Jedi. And seemingly just as quickly, he became scrutinized and vilified on the internet after the movie came out (unjustifiably, in my humble opinion.) In response, Johnson took a step back and wrote/directed Knives Out, a witty and razor-sharp murder mystery featuring a strong ensemble cast. In fact, some suggest the movie is a subtle jab at his critics.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler is on a revenge tour of his own. Well-regarded a few years ago, his reputation took a massive hit in Minnesota and then Philadelphia, where he couldn't push potential super-teams over the hump. Instead, he took off for Miami, intent on doing things his own way. And there, he's re-established himself as a top player, thanks in no small part to a strong ensemble cast. This Miami Heat team is deep and well-balanced, and a potential spoiler out East.
Houston Rockets as... UNCUT GEMS
While immensely popular and successful, Adam Sandler has often been a punching bag for critics. This year may change that, as he's finally getting universal praise for his performance as a spiraling jeweler in Uncut Gems. Sandler has a heavy workload in the movie, anchoring almost every scene. One of the elements that helps him in the movie is the frantic pace and energy; there's rarely a dull moment between appearances by Kevin Garnett, the Weeknd, hot girls pleasuring themselves, hot seder dinner action, etc.
Similarly, this season may be when James Harden shakes off the last remaining critics and haters. He's shouldering a huge workload and carrying the team, and is doing a spectacular job at that. And similar to Uncut Gems, one of the reasons that Harden has been so successful this year is the frantic pace. After ditching Chris Paul, the Rockets have vaulted from 26th last season to 2nd in terms of their pace of play. That style has made Harden even more efficient than ever.
Utah Jazz as... 1917
Director Sam Mendes' gripping drama takes you inside the brutality of World War I. Unlike the blitzkriegs of WWII, the "Great War" was best known for their brutal trench warfare, where young soldiers desperately tried and failed to gain mere feet of room.
The Utah Jazz's opponents may have some flashbacks here, as they've tried and failed to get inside the paint as long as "Stifle Tower" Rudy Gobert has been there on patrol. This season marks Utah's fifth year in a row that they've ranked in the top 10 of defensive efficiency. Of course, to actually win the title, the team can't rely on their defensive systems alone. The troops need to rally together to save Mike Conley's career and find some more offensive firepower.
Denver Nuggets as... JOKER
Disregarded and ridiculed by society, Arthur Fleck (Joaquin Phoenix) ultimately finds his voice and new identity as the "Joker." With it, he unwittingly inspires a movement that attacks the traditional powers-that-be.
Beefy Nikola Jokic, also known as "The Joker", had been disregarded and ridiculed by the NBA draft community that let him stumble to the second round. Despite that, Jokic found his identity as an unconventional point center, helping the Nuggets become of the best teams in the league. While old-school pundits may still mock his game and his frame, it's looking like an increasingly dangerous group in Denver. And if Michael Porter Jr. can fully return from his back issues as well as Batman post Bane, then we could be talking about quite a superpower.
L.A. Lakers as... THE IRISHMAN
Director Martin Scorsese certainly knows about mob movies, but that doesn't mean they're always easy to put together. It took over a decade for the stars to align for The Irishman, the long-awaited reunion between Robert DeNiro and Al Pacino. It may be a near-ancient cast, but it's one that brings the goods in telling the behind-the-scenes story of Jimmy Hoffa.
In terms of the typical NBA landscape, 35-year-old LeBron James may as well be ancient himself. Despite that, he's looked decades younger this season (a la Robert DeNiro.) For DeNiro, the magic fountain of youth came in the form of CGI. For LeBron, it may be another three-letter abbreviation. But however it happened, it's worked like a charm; the "King" is back to dominating and chasing more titles. And while it may have taken a while to put his latest contender together, he finally landed his desired co-star in Anthony Davis. Of course, for the Lakers to win it all, they'll need more contributions from the supporting cast. Joe Pesci is a stellar third banana in The Irishman, while Kyle Kuzma has left something to be desired so far.
Milwaukee Bucks as... PARASITE
South Korean director Bong Joon-ho's Parasite is being hailed as one of the best movies of the year, and is rising the charts as a legitimate contender to win Best Picture. In fact, Bovada lists it as + 250, the second best odds in the entire field. Of course, to actually win the award, the movie would be going against some history. While foreign-language films have been nominated for Best Picture in the past (most recently with Roma last year), none of them have actually won the trophy.
In some ways, we can say the same about foreign-born Giannis Antetokounmpo's pursuit of greatness. Yes, international players have been among the best in the NBA before. Dirk Nowitzki won an MVP trophy and a championship ring, after all. However, that didn't come in the same season. While Nowitzki was universally considered one of the best players of his day, it never felt like he was universally considered THE single best player in the league over the likes of Kobe Bryant or LeBron. But if Giannis can win MVP (again) and lead these Bucks to a title (in the same year), there would be no question about it; the best player in the NBA is not an American. And as with Parasite, there's a good chance of that happening. Bovada lists the Bucks' odds as + 350, the third best in the field and a near match for the movie.
L.A. Clippers as... ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
You can argue that Leonardo DiCaprio is at the peak of his powers right now, and the top actor in all of town. Not one to rest on his laurels, he teamed up with another superstar in Brad Pitt and worked for a Hall of Fame director in Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood. In the picture, DiCaprio's Rick Dalton attempts to adjust to a changing world around him.
Similarly, you can argue that Kawhi Leonard is at the top of his game and at the top of the NBA totem pole after winning the title in Toronto. Not one to rest of his laurels, he teamed up with another superstar in Paul George and their own Hall of Fame coach in Doc Rivers. If there's any problems with this title-caliber roster, it may be a matter of whether Leonard and George can adjust to a new team in time, particularly one that established a nice chemistry without them last year.
Still, between those two stars and a spicy supporting cast (with Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell proving a spark as our Margot Robbie and Margaret Qualley here), they're going to be a tough group to beat. Like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, people expect them to come back after a slower-than-expected start and turn on the heat in the final act.

It’s not often in sports betting, especially for me, I pull off what appears to be impossible.
But after winning two parlays for about $400 total I withdrew my balance in Bovada then put back $180 with a 125% bonus giving me about $400 dollars to play with. The bonus requirements to be allowed to cash out again was 5x the deposit so I had to get $2,084 risked to be able to withdraw anything. Honestly never thought I’d get close.
At one point this $400 was 0 with bets out, I bet the chargers ML live thinking they would find a way for herberts first big win. But I pulled back with my bread and butter, nba O/U points. Today I was at $390 with 5% to go. I got impatient and bet esports to finish the last 5% lost both bets ($60 total).... sigh what are you DOING! Well I wanted to win it back and complete the bonus and bet on European basketball. I made a $30 and $10 bet and won most of the $60 back and complete the bonus requirement!
I have withdrawn $369 after putting in $180 and since my original deposit I’m technically down but the profit is house money! I’m riding off into the sunset.... until I get the itch again when the Celtics play the heat tonight....
Sometimes good things do happen! Thanks for reading and good luck to all of you and your bets.

Aside from wanting to win and I don't blame the guy he's obviously well he and his brother along with some friends have obviously figured out a way to regularly win million-dollar pots every year between the two of them at least one of them wins most years. Same winning possible antics as he has done for the 'PapaGates' who happens to be 0.22 points lower pts w the exact same score. On screenshot and his real life blood brother. **let it be known I feel like this is less important than being able to take all of Papa Gates and Chipotle's entries and come up with different combinations for each one still don't see the benefit from at least my brain's not processing of having the exact same lineup unless you just have one hell of a set of steel balls.
https://ibb.co/7nnjBCm
Call it a coincidence if you want..but they all paid $2,500 each for Mason plumlee {sigh}
I don't think anything the man or his brother etc are doing anything illegal I think this is more of a "If a regular player like me is noticing it I know other people are also noticing it and strictly that's just going to limit confidence in the average player therefore I once saw DraftKings being a huge company and I thought the initial stock offering was way undervaluation.
I honestly do not think gambling on sports is ready yet. Of course if you're determined to do something, of course you can do it even if you live in certain states And use DraftKings book. I would just definitely wait until Bitcoin and use cryptocurrencies make it to where these companies can pay you the day of your winnings instead of instantly taking deposits but at taking everything but a three-legged race and most not all, most, again not all online sportsbooks. I'm talking to you bovada I'm talking to you
Cool how they all chose Plumber for $2500.

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?

The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.

Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.

They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.

During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.

Hey all hope everyone is staying safe! Come in and out of the community but needed some advice. I will be honest I do not know a lot about online gambling companies and different offers. I normally just go to my William Hill sportsbook because I prefer making bets in person. However with the Draft this week and me wanting to place some bets I was hoping to get some feedback on some of the sportsbook sites. I was looking at either Draftkings or Fanduel but a lot of people in this subreddit seem to use Bovada. What are some of the advantages with promotions for one over the other and which one do you guys like personally? (Again I am not familiar with the promotions of these different services). Thanks in advance!

I am not good at poker. Hello folks my name is Hristivoje Pavloic. Most of you know me by All In Pav on most sites. I primarily stream on the twitchpoker platform

It all started in 2015 when poker was just a hobby for me and i was living with my parents. I was a complete nobody and just loved the game. I studied and worked my ass off and then one magical day Kevin Martin gave me a 68 dollar donation and it meant the world to me, as my existance wasnt even worth a grand that day.

Then i decided to study hard, put in the volume and study DTO and get a few nerd friends to join me like Henry and Travis. They made the road to success easier to deal with. We gave up partying, going out, spending time with girls to the point my own mother even questioned if i was gay or not, but thats another story.

I managed to win 6 figure profit in 2017 2018 and 2019. thru sheer luck. I admit it. The trolls were right all along. I actually lookedback and remember alot of the wins i gotten to profit money. Back when i won 50k on the ACR tourney i had 2 big blinds and should of went out in 16th place for like 7 grand, but i kept getting AK and JJ to move all the way up. Or what about the time i had 1 big blind on the money bubble in the bovada 88 dollar? to win 8k or the time i had 1 bb on the money bubble in the 109 wednsday 50k on ACR and took it down for 11k? Or what about the time i should of busted the tourney i won recently but got it in with 20% twice and won both? My point is just these examples show that i won over 120k here and without this sheer luck id of lost money for the year like i am now in 2020.

I constantly am shortstack, I just play push/fold and survive and ladder up and get lucky. I know deep down im just a giant luckbox. Look me up on all your databases guys, when do i bluffshove a river? I never do. I am a nit and play abc poker. I have ran good for 3 years and its now hitting me because im not getting that string of luck i had previously.

Alot of you defend me and tell me to cheerup but the truth is i ran hotter than the sun for a couple yrs and now if i run average i will lose money. I need to find it in myself and drop down and play where i belong in the $33. However i can afford the big games and have sponsorship to support this downswing Im currently on. Im actually a slight winner i think to be honest but will lose 6 figures if i continue to play games i dont belong playing.

I always say how consistant i am and want to be the best but it hurts to realise the truth.

I urge everybody out there to not take what i say seriously from thus point on. Now remember, i dont do handshakes people!

I posted my honest performance chart from playing live low-stakes poker earlier this year, and let's face it: I suck. I am currently down $4725 over roughly 400 hours of live poker this year to date (mostly casino and home cash games but several monthly home game league tourneys as well). I finally decided to look into some off the table material to improve. From self-analysis I would say my biggest leaks are tied between between getting gambly in certain spots and punting additional money after a cooler or any bad beat.
To preface this I make quite a good living with a successful career, working lots of OT as an Inspector in the Petrochemical Industry. Poker is more of how I spend my time away from work and hang out with friends (the main home games I play in are hosted by friends and we do craft beer shares at the monthly league nights). I would never want to do this for a living, and nor should I, but I would like to stop hemmoraging money, even if it is with friends. I figure if I put in the effort away from the table in a similar manner to how I put in effort to build my successful career, it couldn't hurt (I honestly can't get much worse at poker, lol).
I looked up some online videos on Youtube and came across some of Jonathan Little's coaching videos. I watched a couple of them and found the webinars very interesting. I then went and signed up for his free membership and started going through the quizzes and provided class videos. After just one session my good friend that hosts a weekly game told me he noticed a big change in play. Unfortunately I got coolered late in the session (flopped top 2 pair vs flopped bottom set) and then never untilted and punted off the rest.
Even with the loss I noticed my play was much better trying to stick to the basics from the low stakes cash game strategy webinar, and have since put about 1-2 hours of hand quizzes and study in a day. I also played a couple hours of micros online this weekend to practice the theories from the courses and ran up $25 in profit (in 5NL Zoom on Bovada) Next game is Wednesday (Homegame MTT with $0.50-$1 cash game to follow).
I plan to take advantage of the Black Friday specials and buy a bundle, as it appears that this is working.

Round two thoughts after a great day of tennis today. Thought of the day : not allowing coaching visits in the women's matches is really making for some big blowups and comebacks. I like it and I think it's great for player development to have to problem solve on their own.

Djokovic Laaksonen : There’s not much to say here. Laaksonen was lucky enough to nab one of the weakest players in the draw with his lucky loser spot but his run ends here. While sporting some of the best fitness on tour (the dude looks like a cartoon without a shirt) Laaksonen is an ABC player who mostly relies on his opponents inconsistencies and his serving ability. Djokovic offers neither of these and this should be over in straight sets.
Caruso Simon : Munar was one of the best prospects along with FAA coming into Rome and Caruso was able to outlast him and to produce winners against a guy who plays defense with not exactly the tools but the attitude of Nadal. A very big win is often followed by a very big letdown but Simon has only racked up 4 wins this entire clay season and I expect Caruso to win at least one set, if not pressure him for the match.
Struff Albot : Unfortunately both of these guys are at the top of their games right now but Struff’s ceiling is a great deal higher. Struff’s repertoire this season has been impressive and most of Albot’s wins while impressive feel stolen if I’m being honest. I worry a bit that Struff will feel pressure to dictate for most of the match and may hit himself out of at least one set, but he should take care of business here against Albot and set up a nice clash against Borna Coric.
Coric Harris : I’ve said before that Coric has a habit of playing to his opponent’s level, but you can let me know the next time you see Coric going 5 sets with Rosol. Harris’ big serve and athleticism may make this appear competitive, but the errors will come and Coric probably has the easiest 2nd round of anyone here.
Fognini Delbonis : Delbonis has been played more consistently aggressive this clay season than I’ve seen him in the past, but Fognini has, since leaving South America, actually been making an effort on the court. This is one I would prefer to flip a coin than call, and if there were a way to wager on spectacular winners I would take the over.
Fritz Bautista Agut : RBA and Fritz both were expected to roll in their first rounds and both looked impressive. Fritz is actually having a better clay season than RBA, and scored a victory over him in Lyon. The problem with that victory was it was a 3 set victory, and the event the week before a major is largely about getting in extra matches and avoiding injury. Zverev didn’t get the memo and fatigue will likely shut down his French Open at some point, but RBA’s exit in 3 probably indicates this match will be tight and while I belive he will come through, it’s hard to spit in the face of recent matches and I’ll be skipping this one and expecting Fritz to win at least 1 set.
Lajovic Benchetrit : Benchetrit scored a nice first round victory over the hapless Cam Norrie, and it definitely cost a couple ppl some dollars as Norrie was a relatively low -150 before the match began. Lajovic beat a legitimate claycourt threat however in Thiago Monteiro, and did so in straight sets. I expect him to continue his boring path through the draw but as unfamiliar as I am with Benchetrit’s game, I would not put it past him to pressure Lajovic a great deal given the power on his forehand and the consistency he has on the backhand side. A great match to wait for the end of so that you can take Zverev against the winner.
Zverev Ymer : Bovada opened this at -600 and despite having gone to three sets in a match about two years ago this one is a puzzle for me. Zverev avoided his classic 5th set letdown against Milman but fucksake if you don’t expect him to beat that guy in 3. Milman is doing more with less consistently and while he is a fierce competitor, his backhand is simply not strong enough to be getting to a 5th with Zverev. The line being as low as it is and the match with Milman unfortunately suggests to me that Zverev is a bit fatigued from his run in Lyon, and as fatigue was his downfall in past majors, I will be watching this one closely. That being said, Ymer is a supreme physical talent with a big game not exactly suited for the clay. He’s going to give you errors, and against the style of hiding behind the baseline that Zverev has chosen, he shouldn’t be able to steal more than one set even is Z is exhausted. Slight update : an insider said Zverev is “going thru some shit right now / mentally unstable / don’t bet on him” well too late … and also complete speculation most likely, but I’ll be looking to hedge early if he becomes the last leg of the 1 parlay I took him in
Thiem Bublik : Another annoying match for Thiem. While the ideal opponent for Thiem is a guy with a smaller serve and a conservative game, it looks like he’ll be playing guys with legit offense throughout the tournament(Paul/Bublik/. Tommy Paul simply would have beaten a 3rd of the guys who advanced out of the first round, and while Bublik should not be able to have a realistic shot at winning here, he has a big serve and prefers to lose on his terms, so this should be a disorienting match that Thiem will of course get through, but won’t help his rhythm heading into the 3rd round.
Cuevas Edmund : What’s the reward for playing 5 sets of high level tennis against Chardy? The opportunity to play 5 more with Pablo Cuevas. While not as hyperaggressive as his French counterpart, Cuevas is ten times more physically able and while Edmund can dictate well with the forehand, Cuevas has the far superior backhand and mobility. Cuevas unfortunately has a tendency to go 3 sets way more often than he has to in matches he is in control of, and that kind of complacency will allow Edmund the chance to swing for the fences which he seems so far to not have a problem doing. I’ll be skipping this one for the unpredictability but will definitely be watching.
Verdasco Hoang : Verdasco had the perfect first round opponent. If you watched today’s match you got to see Evans helplessly slicing the ball back on the backhand side and Verdasco getting to do what he loves most which is stand still and hit forehands. While Evans looked to be frustrating him at times Verdasco is not going to hit himself out of a match; he tends to lose by being outworked and mostly misses when he’s being moved around the court as he tries to make his shots better rather than run back to center. Hoang scored a nice win over Dzumhur who showed signs of being a midget. One of the most skillful players to watch when he’s winning, Dzumhur looks the same as Schwartzman when he’s losing, just physically exerted to play at the level. This is likely the end of the road for Hoang, but given Verdasco’s habit of mental lapses and wearing his heart on his sleeve he will be hard pressed to win in straight sets.
Mannarino Monfils : Monfils is just incredible at tennis and it’s a shame he spends a great deal of his non-injured time giving up against guys he could compete with (see : anyone in the top five anytime he plays them). He beat Daniel today like we are all aware that he can. On the opposite side of the spectrum, it was nice to see Mannarino get a win after really a long stretch of losing the big points and making errors uncharacteristic of him. I love the smooth style he employs but it almost seems like when he lost his hair he lost his swagger and while that’s an abstract assumption you can look back to the time before Rafa’s plugs grew in and see him visibly self-conscious about it. I lost my hair last year and now I’m trash at Smash Bros. Anyway French matches have a tendency to have wild results and I’m excited for this one and Paire vs Herbert but Travaglia’s power today was enough to get past Mannarino and he really lost at the end due to impatience. Monfils won’t have that issue and his serve is big enough to get him enough free points whereas Mannarino’s level right now is the computer player you train against. Monfils in 3 or 4.
Khachanov Barrere : Barrere a heavy favorite against Ebden came through quite nicely and now his tournament is over. Khachanov and Pouille are on a collision course and I’d be lying if I said I know Barrere’s game well enough to say he has no shot, but Khachanov has insisted on many occasions that clay is his best surface and with his past results giving him a cushion where he isn’t concerned as much with ranking points, he should be able to swing free of pressure and clean this one up in 4.
Pouille Klizan : I saw a lot of angry twitter comments about Klizan while he was down 2-0 against Kukushkin but he managed to turn it around. While that’s impressive what I watched with Pouille against Bolelli was even better. Pouille was moving to the ball on every shot and returning most shots with more than they came across the net with. His forehand was shaping the ball well and his backhand was compact and solid keeping it very low across the center of the net. Couple that with well struck inside out backhands and the highly skilled Bolelli was simply not allowed into any of the three sets. I am always hesitant to say lefties are in trouble and Klizan’s game is not so dependent on his opponent when he goes for such brilliant winners but Pouille’s form is likely to carry over playing on home soil and being the fresher and better player of the two, and he should win here.
Thompson Karlovic : When I first looked at the draw for the Tallahassee Challenger I was excited to see this matchup. Fokina has experienced his first “you’re talented but i am going to ruin your day” occasion. Thompson has the same blind try-hard effort level and attitude as De Minaur and for guys who want to play a more skillful game this can be frustrating. Thompson should be able to grind out points without too much risk against Ivo’s backhand and so holding serve shouldn’t be a big issue. Getting a break from Ivo is easier said than done though, and a lot of these sets will be expected to get to a tiebreaker where, honestly, Thompson should again have the edge in holding serve despite likely having a great deal of his serves come back. I’d never advise betting on tiebreakers but Thompson is the pick here if you must.
Nishioka Del Potro : I love Del Potro and when he’s playing it’s like watching a volcano erupt in between winced smiles. The man walks around like he is always exhausted, and while I suspect he left the forest along with the other ents he just isn’t. After a brief injury recovery he seems back to almost top gear as evident from almost stealing his match with Novak in Madrid, and while Nishioka is adorable af I don’t expect Delpo to lose prior to his quarterfinal against Thiem and he should win here in 4 at worst.
Tsitsipas Dellien : Rough one for Dellien and for Tsitsipas. I don’t think Dellien has the weapons to beat Tsitsipas but that won’t stop this from taking for-fucking-ever. Dellien is a lightning fast defender and a natural on the clay, and Tsitsipas has solidified himself as a top player so it’s hard to bet against him but this may tire him out a bit and I’m already looking forward to his clash with Federer so that’s unfortunate. If Tsitsipas comes out focused and remains aggressive he should roll but if he is making errors Dellien will make this exciting.
Krajinovic Carballes Baena : Good solid start for Kraj getting past Tiafoe who has proven that while his decision making and ego are still a bit wild, he is a difficult opponent to overcome on any surface. RCB is one of the best at printing money in the South American clay tour year after year, but this is a step up from his first round. I don’t think Carballes will find it difficult playing himself into the match with Kraj who doesn’t exactly take the raquet out of your hand, but I think that once he is in it he will have difficulty finding the offense to put Kraj, who is a solid defender, away. This might go deep but Kraj should win and set up a nice clash with Tsitsipas.
Wawrinka Garin : I spoke to someone earlier about lines that scare me. Wawrinka has had a nice build in his comeback and this is a tournament he has won before. He has the bigger offense, and more experience. Bovada lists him at -200 though, and that’s enough to make me skip it. Garin is the opponent you don’t want to play when you’re looking for an easy day at the office. He doesn’t quit on a single point and his shot selection is the one that makes you work. Playing this guy on an outside court is just not what you want to do, and if Stan is able to beat him, it may be time to start considering him as a threat to go deep in this event.
Cilic Dimitrov : “What an easy draw for Cilic. He will beat him senseless.” Not what I expected to read this morning from someone with some professional tennis background, but it makes sense. Dimitrov managed to find himself in a third set with Tipsarevic whose best days are behind him, and now he enters a clash with Cilic who while he is scared of the future does seem to find his best tennis at majors. Cilic leads the h2h and while I would avoid betting on this one simply due to Dimitrov’s ability, when I reread that sentence I do find myself believing that Dimitrov’s best case scenario here is to rise to the occasion and make a match out of it. Cilic in 4.
Mahut Kohlschreiber : But I thought Cecchinato beat Mahut? What happened Mr Turtle? I’ll be honest, it sucks to suck. Opening with that loss meant that my day could be breakeven at best. I went 10-1 and was lucky to be even. Such is life when you’re backing heavy favorites. I love Mahut’s hairstyle, but I don’t think he wins consecutive matches. Cecchinato imploded and Kohl’s demeanor is not such that this will happen. Add the X factor here which is that Kohl is one of the best returners on tour, and Kohl should be able to finish what me and Cecch could not.
Mayer Schwartzman : Idk. Diego beat the far better player in Fucsovics and has been stepping up his level of late, but Mayer actually has the edge in h2h having beaten Diego in 3 on clay last year. I don’t expect this to be anything less than wildly good quality clay tennis, and if I had to touch anything I’d take Diego. The real surprise here is they’ve only played once, and while Mayer won in straights and may be a bit fresher, he’s had a relatively disappointing clay season notching wins over only Copil and Lajovic in recent weeks.
Berrettini Ruud : Berretini is a magnet for in form players and for me leaving letters out of his name. Ruud has fooled me before as I thought he’d be a major threat and didn’t have much of a 2018 at all. His stock is going up, but Berrettini’s is already there. His offense has seen him past some high quality players already this 2019, and I do expect Ruud to put up a hell of a fight, but Berretini should see him off.
Federer Otte : For 3 years I thought his name was Otto Otte and I apologize. Oscar is into the second round with a solid win over Jaziri. Federer shut down one of Italy’s best new claycourt talents in Sonego, and this should be more oneway traffic for a guy who simply looks like he’s playing another game than everyone else.
Nishikori Tsonga : I haven’t seen much full effort from Tsonga this clay season, and he will need it tomorrow against Nishikori. While Nishi’s serve can go away and Tsonga can take the raquet out of your hands, Nishi has shown time and time again that he can isolate players backhands. Given that I haven’t seen Tsonga’s top level since his comeback, I can’t really recommend believing it will show up here. He’ll try, and Nishi is famous for getting himself into 5th sets, but he should be able to outlast Tsonga in this one.
Popyrin Djere : Djere holds a clay title, has been winning the matches he’s supposed to all year, and now plays a relatively inexperienced player here after rolling ARV who is not a guy who goes down easy on the dirt. I was a little surprised at the line here of -400 for Djere (Bovada), but Popyrin does have an explosive game when he is on. I can’t say enough about Djere’s progress and fighting spirit here though, and I think he comes through here although given his grind it out style it may take more sets than I’m comfortable with. To put it more bluntly, there is nothing to suggest that Popyrin will win, so I can’t back the possibility.
De Minaur Carreno Busta : Normal circumstances I would say PCB tunes up De Minaur. One of the most consistent performers on tour and one of the best on the big points for years, PCB’s shoulder injury has led to a most bizarre comeback. From clutch comebacks to having break points against him every game of a set against Paire, to losing to Opelka on the dirt, PCB headed into the French looking like a non-issue. A straight set thump of Sousa lends itself to the idea that he may have been just getting some matches under his belt. PCB has brought his best tennis out and gone deep in majors he was not expected to many times, and De Minaur’s flat ball and lack of real power will hurt his ability to hurt PCB here if he’s not making errors. PCB at about -220 looks right, and I’ll be skipping this one but watching to see how PCB looks as vintage PCB’s defense is just the opponent to win that third round matchup against Paire/Herbert.
Paire Herbert : You won’t find two more unique players on tour and this one should be wildly entertaining. Paire has been on fire of late and making an effort which marks the first time he done this since ever. His fitness seems improved, his backhand is still one of the best offensive backhands on tour, and his serve coughs up double faults but also gets him a ton of opportunities to come to net and avoid getting his draggy forehand exposed. Herbert brings a similar style of serve and volley to the table and with both guys being able to hold serve fairly often this far, the only discernible difference is Herbert beating Medvedev which is a huge win. This is a coinflip as Paire has the bigger weapons and Herbert has the composure and skill to capitalize when Paire makes careless errors.
Londero Gasquet : Is the line still dropping? Gasquet opened at -180 and it’s been diving ever since. Londero’s straight set drubbing of Basilashvili is nothing short of shocking, but while he’s struggled to win a match on tour since his title, his play during that title run is the type that would lead you to believe he can finish off a recuperating Gasquet. My problem here is Gasquet’s health is a mystery, but if he’s not struggling he can hit the ball around all day and frustrate even the best players on tour (outside the top 5). I’d take Londero to win the 1st set and the match for equal units here, but I have a tough time believing Gasquet is such a big dog given Londero didn’t simply open as a favorite.
Pella Moutet : Moutet is a talented player and he’ll have the home crowd behind him. Pella is a lefty and the hardest working player you’ll see on the tour. While Pella lacks the offense to simply hit you off the court, he will grind your backhand into oblivion and his backhand tends to stick you in the corner where he’s able to get forehands back or simply keep hitting the same backhand. Because he’s not an offensive dynamo, Moutet could pull a set here but is unlikely to win the match.
Goffin Kecmanovic : So is Goffin finally healed? Kecmanovic is a grinder without big weapons and this suits Goffin’s game just fine as he’ll be able to move him around the court nicely. As long as Goffin’s serve doesn’t disappear at the end of sets this match is his to lose, and Kecmanovic is a warrior but 5 sets against Kudla isn’t likely to help his chances of outlasting one of the tour’s best baseliners.
Nadal Maden : If Nadal had a damage counter, it would be empty game over playboy. Unfortunately, the French Open isn’t a video game and Hanfmann took the L we all knew he would. Maden has a good serve and hits hard from the baseline, but this is more oneway traffic. I don’t expect to see Nadal tested until he plays Pella and if Pella goes out then he’ll have to wait for Tsitsipas/Fed.
To be fair, I did ok for first round but people’s response was a bit critical so I tried to include less direct gambling advice in this post, and the second round isn’t much different with the things I’m taking. Heavy favorites against moderately hopeless opponents. Guys I’m backing are Coric, Thiem, Delpo, Federer, Kohl, Pella, Djere, Pliskova. I have some smaller stuff backing Kozlova +1.5 sets, Hsieh ML, Struff ML and Siegemund +4.5 games but those are more speculative than anything else. Best of luck and if you have any question or disagree I’m happy to read and respond.

Disclaimer: This is likely going to be the most boring section but year 3 is where it starts to get good (which I can make it more humorous) and I will type it up while I play tomorrow. But as long as interest in these threads is here I will invest the time in making them. A couple comments in the first one said it was nostalgic, which I agree, its kind of why I am even writing these. These were the actual good days of poker before government decided to fuck it up for everyone, poker is a shell of what it used to be and it will never return to its glory days without government fucking off. There is no entry point for new players these days, there are no advertisements on ESPN, no play money hustles or low stakes games online full of fish (now full of bots or bot like regs) or mega field mtts for people to get excited about. Also processing power has grown so much that problem solvers are becoming prevalent in decent stakes games. Jump online and play some NLH, it is insanely unfriendly to anyone playing less than perfect (plo is the only way to play online now, lets make it bigger than NLH!). Your every leak will be exploited. Its just not going to come back. (No one tell me bovada is soft either, fuck the anonymous stuff, 4$ rake no rewards system, they deserve no business, globalpoker is the only one worse) Also worth noting every single event I cover is real. The only thing that can be false is dialogue (for humor usually) and potentially altered hand histories due to lapsed memory.
Oh and since I bashed two online sites I will plug one. Coinpoker.com - learn how to use crypto and join up. The software is solid, traffic a bit slow for USA time zones but its growing a bit. I have no affiliation aside from playing there and would enjoy more traffic in USA peak hours.
Year 2
I am now a 20 year old gun slinger in the wild West of online poker. I am grinding sit n gos and mtts and cash games. I am a jack of all trades, and a master of all games. I am playing plo stud8 nlh it didnt matter, I just wanted to learn every game. I was a genuine student of poker, it consumed my brain at all times. I wake up at noon to slide into my chair and start grinding, still living at home with my dad in my ear telling me to get a job because “there is no future to gambling” to which I retort “you got it wrong pops, its actually no gamble no future, and I am gonna gamble for mine”.
I am in the backwoods of Oklahoma. I have no clue when high speed internet was invented but I sure as hell didnt have it in 2006. I was still using dialup as it was the only option available. I grind a lot of mtts and sitngos, and when Poker Stars releases a small patch or update I always paid the piper. I would leave the website open 24/7 so disconnects often would leave me screaming at my computer banging my head as updates downloaded for 5-20 minutes usually. Often I would be ITM in an mtt or holding AA/KK somewhere praying to the poker gods that everyone else disconnected and was feeling my struggles as well.
Nevertheless I am becoming a winning player. I have erratic account balances ranging from 300-1000$ while I play $1-10$ mtts (and occasionally jumping into a 20$+) and cash games at 10nl/plo mostly. I dont exactly recall the tourney that allowed me to cash out $3,000 off of Poker Stars, but it happened at some point that year. I remember the day it came in the mail pretty well. I got in my piece of shit 1998 Ford F150 (that I drove from age 17 to 23ish until I gave it to a friend who had his car stolen, it finally collapsed at 310k miles, I abused that truck, it literally had so many original parts on it, including the spark plugs amazingly) and drove into town head held high with my prize sitting on my lap. I couldnt wait to get to the bank so they could ask me where I got all this money from (which is ironic because a year later you had to lie if you wanted to retain your bank account). In my mind, as a 20 year old who has never even held 1000$ of my own money before it felt like I was going to be cashing the biggest check they would see all week.
I arrive at a Bank of Oklahoma, walk in and head to an open teller. She was an elderly lady probably in her 60s. I hand her the check and give her my account info and she starts punching away on her computer. She asks me how I want it, and with a smug grin on my face I say “in cash”. She gives me a blank stare then reaches into her drawer and pulls out a stack of $100 bills. This was the moment I had lived for, this was the moment my year plus of sitting in a basement ostracized from society grinding it out on my leather ass was for. She leans in to start counting out $3,000 and time is moving so slow for me. My bottom lip is literally shaking watching her count this massive sum of fiat, it was at the time the greatest moment of my life (over losing virginity, over the first time feeling the euphoria of MDMA, over anything). It felt so fulfilling. Pixelated cash turned to physical cash and I was on my way. Making the hour drive to the city to buy some cocaine and hang out with friends.
Short version of the weeks that followed that event, cocaine and home games for pennies. The money ran dry and my nose wore raw. The cocaine was rarely good obviously but thats to be expected in 2006 and in the Midwest.
Towards the end of the year I am going to a friends house to play after a weekend of partying and poker. We played at the casino the night before and have had little to no sleep in two days. Hes not a well seasoned super pro who has cashed a $3,000 check like me but he dabbles a bit. Its Sunday and were gonna grind a few tourneys, one in particular was a freeroll for anyone who earned X amount of FPPs over a set period of time. Everyone who makes final table gets a $12,000 package to main event. So we saddle up and jump into this (if my memory serves me correctly) 26,000~ player field. Luckily it had a good structure with plenty of play, 5 minute levels was going to allow my sharpened skills to shine. Laptops out, chargers plugged into a power supply we were underway. We felt like Louis and Clark setting out to traverse the western USA. We were gonna chart our maps on our way through this large field and claim our prize. We rarely say a word to each other through the first hour, were dog ass tired from the partying and high stakes 1-2nl at the casino the night before.
I bust my entry in the second hour, humiliated by the poker gods I look over at my friend in disgrace to let him know he is on his own, only to see him fast asleep sitting out at his table. I grab his laptop and feel my heart thud and my jugular swell as I have been revitalized having a second chance at this tourney, so long as he doesnt wake up.
I quietly accrue chips, soul reading my digital opponents and swiping their blinds. An hour passes I am still alive. Another hour and I am full thrive. Another hour and it seems I wont be deprived. We get down to 1000 then 500 then 100 people left standing. I awake my friend to show him what I have done, much to his surprise. He was excited but knew that I was the captain of his ship now. He fell asleep at the helm, so his ship now belonged to me.
Now to the hands I remember pretty well.
Two tables left. Not a ton of play but I am one of the bigger stacks. 15ish left and I am in the blinds with 66 when some asshat rips from the cutoff. It will cost me 3/4 of my stack (tbh I cant remember how many bb, it had to be 6-10 I would think, a 5 minute level turbo with 26k people back in 06? Had to be shallow) but I nut up and call.
My 66 is ahead of his QT but he finds a way to win. Now I am on deaths throes seeing this 12k package slip out of my grasp.
Aside from a pivotal pot that I won with K9o (ripping shallow) I remember no other hands but I assure you no one was all in or had someone all in more than I did at those final two tables. It tailed off with me comfortably sliding in from 11~ left to 9. I remember agonizing so many all ins, laughing when I won and yelling FUCK!! when I lost. More highs and lows over that 20-30 minutes than I had ever thought possible, and wouldnt feel again for a year or two. This 12k score was by far my biggest to date. We fist bumped and despite having no sleep we went out drinking and playing 1-2 like a couple of punk 21 year olds that we were. Kind of a side note but I have had many threats to me at a poker table, I am a bit mouthy (in the name of humor, but the humorless get angry).
Since it was my friends account we chopped the 12k. He proceeded to become a 200nl pro for the next few weeks. Sitting with the likes of Sam Simon (of The Simpsons, he was a frequent Poker Stars player) and melting off a good portion before tapping out.
I proceeded to continue to chip up from there. Then I had some issues on Poker Stars. While playing some 180 man sitgos I was talking to someone in chat. Who then found me on my cash tables to ask me what I had in a hand. Needless to say I broke collusion rules (worse than that, he lingered and was telling me his hands and I would tell him mine like a nimrod). Wasnt exactly intentional but I received a life time ban on Poker Stars and they sent me a check for my account balance. Not my proudest moment, it was dumb but honestly resulted in a net positive.
The end of the year I turn 21 and am grinding FTP and I am thinking about moving out of my folks house. I never get a fat roll together but I am winning here and there and blowing money like an idiot kid who has no concept of tomorrow. I was downloading new poker sites (the resulting net positive from losing stars)
One last story from this year. This is genuinely my favorite one I ever tell (and I tell it occasionally to this day in certain situations with people I dont think will get offended and they set themselves up for it)
I walk into a card room and get a 1-2 seat. I grab chips and head that way, and I end up drawing a seat directly to this old mans left. The old man was my grandfather. I had spent minimal time with this man in my life. Less than most people do with grandparents who live fairly close. He was a gambler though, stocks or cards. Rumor has it (never heard this from him only my mom and other family) in the late 70s or early 80s he sells a plot of land with a few oil drills on it and heads to Vegas where he spends 6-9 months playing poker and comes back busto. I never asked him about this story, if true I am sure he was felting himself to Brunson or Slim or some of the other old timers. The land yielded him a few hundred thousand dollars. The funny part is that piece of land is still pumping oil in 2019 (he fucked up). He recovered in life though, he never lived poorly. Owned a house on a lake in Oklahoma and dated meth addicted women 30 years younger than him my whole life. Just a standard version of a sugar daddy I suppose.
Anyhow, we greet each other and exchange a few words before just getting immersed in the game. Hes not exactly an old man coffee player, I do know his favorite hand is 910 though from poker discussions we had previously. About an hour into the session I have barely played a hand. I look over at him and say “man I just keep getting 92o 83o 72o over and over”. He then turns his head towards me and looks me in the eyes and says words I never will forget. He says (using fake name here) “Johnny, there aint one guy at this table that gives a fuck what youre folding” and looks away. I wasnt shocked at the cold response. He was a brash and dry person. Never told a joke that I remember. I never forgot it though and when people try to complain about their cards I tell them “I will tell you what my grandpappy told me, aint nobody at this table gives a fuck what youre folding”. Even though it was kind of cold, truer words rarely are uttered at a poker table. The last thing I care about is someones bad beats or card dead hour or wtf ever else. We are all so self involved that we think people care to hear a bad beat story or whatever, but they dont.
Part 3 in the next day or two.

Halfway through the season anyone could use a break, and for those guys in the top of the rankings who’ve earned it, that break is the grasscourt season. Short volleys, a boost for everyone’s serving, appreciative crowds, and exhibition events that feature about the same effort level as the real tour events. With the awe-inspiring grind of the clay tour behind them, the tour’s finest will head to Wimbledon this week for a chance at making history. At this vaunted venue, even 1 match can be talked about for years and with the speed of the grass, upsets are never out of the question. Below are my thoughts about the 1st round of the men’s division.
Djokovic Kohlschreiber : Kohl managed to nab a win against Novak earlier this season in Indian Wells on a slow hardcourt. A couple weeks later he managed to steal a set in Monte Carlo on clay. The progression from favorable conditions to difficult ones continues, and while Kohl is the definition of a professional on the tour, this is one way traffic. I had a chance to watch some of Novak’s exhibition matches this past week, and while the best takeaway was how capable Shapovalov and Garin are on the swift stuff, Novak looked not only engaged but happy to be in contested rallies. If you watch a lot of great champions they are actually at their most engaged and highest level when they are being pressed, and this is revealing of how difficult it is to play at peak level against inferior opponents. Kohl’s W against Novak will keep his attention on the match, and where he struggled a bit in his comeback Novak’s serving game is nearing top level again (he has really been hitting his spots nicely). Novak is my pre-tournament pick for the title here, and I don’t think he drops a set here. Novak in 3.
Kudla Jaziri : Kudla has had a Mischa Zverev like start to 2019. He had to go through qualifying in some events and head to the challenger in Surbiton, but managed to string together some 7 wins through this grass season. Arguably his best surface, he has a great first round draw here in Jaziri, who has been struggling with injury and playing not only sparsely, but on clay at that. Two clay challengers and early exits have been on the menu, and rumblings of dealing with injuries lend to the idea that he probably is not at his peak for Wimbledon but of course cannot afford to pass up 1st rd points and pay in a major. With a big serve and a big forehand, Jaziri is a threat in any set of tennis, but these players are trending in opposite directions. Kudla in 4 at most.
Gulbis Mayer : Although this matchup sits in the Novak section, this is a tidy little spot for someone to steal some very important ranking points with the winner likely facing Hurkacz where they won’t be favored but will certainly have a chance. Gulbis has had 3 subpar losses to start his grass season, and Mayer hasn’t fared much better. The time Mayer tends to need to produce his groundstrokes will hurt him on the grass, and injury rumblings before the French Open coupled with his lack of activity make me think this is a great chance for Gulbis to steal a match and remain relevant on tour. Gulbis in 5.
Hurkacz Lajovic : Grass suits Hurkacz game nicely as he has a big serve and good reaction time on his groundstrokes. A fairly flat backhand moves nicely through the court and although he’s had middling results through the grass season, he’s shown more promise than Lajovic. One of the smaller players on tour with a less than dominant serve, Lajovic prospers primarily through precision and intelligence. That counts for something on grass but what will decide this match will be Hurkacz ability to hold serve with a great deal more ease. Hurkacz in 4.
Auger-Alliassime Pospisil : “Anything is Pospisil,” my friend says for the 400th time. “haha” I type for the 400th time. I am nothing if not loyal. If you watch Vasek Pospisil you think, This is a professional tennis player. Big serve, excellent skill, appears to be in top shape, but the results end there. Grass and the US Open will be his best chance to pick up some points, but this is a terrible first round draw for him. Perhaps injuries have hampered his rise on the tour in the past, but he has shown an impatience on court that speaks to a slight confidence issue in hanging with the top players. While they’re from the same country and this comfort can produce a higher level of tennis from the underdog, FAA’s current form on grass is not to be underestimated. Those saying he has a chance at the title are more hopeful than valid, but he is a favorite against anyone outside the top 30 in any round at this event. An easily repeatable serve, a great reach, and pure athleticism combine to form one of the best coached players I have seen enter the tour in a long time. Injuries cost him his big major debut at the French Open, but I expect him to be prepared for the big stage here and clean up a struggling Pospisil. The best thing I’ve seen from FAA has been the winners he hits to the open court. There are a lot of guys employing the “guide it to the spot and kinda cringe inward and hope” strategy, but this kid hits the ball with length and angle right through the court. This may cause an error here or there but in time (and he has it) it will produce a player whose standard shots are simply more aggressive and repeatable than his opponents. This is a future #1 barring injury. Given Vasek’s main strength is a big serve, he could hold his way to some tiebreakers, but the writing is on the wall. FAA in 4 at most.
Dimitrov Moutet : Dimitrov has yet to have a match this year that did not seem like it was primetime disaster popcorn status. Moutet is likely most known for his gutsy loss in the French to Londero, but he has turned heads this season on the challenger tour and while he’s not the most athletically blessed guy, he’s left handed and has a great deal of determination and confidence about going after his shots. Dimitrov has been know to play too passive and to lose his length, and this is a player who will steal a set if you let him. That loss of focus is an intangible, and so while Moutet will be waiting and hoping for it, Dimitrov SHOULD (big should) win this in 4 sets. With the winner facing FAA, I really am hoping that he does. Dimitrov in 4.
Sonego Gralloers : I glanced at the oddsmakers lines for this and noted that it’s a pickem. Granollers has all but vanished from the main tour this season, and Sonego’s game and stock has been on a constant rise. The expectation of fatigue following his win in Turkey this weekend could play a factor, and Granollers is a get artist who will extend any match. Sonego has the better serve, better forehand, and his backhand slice has proven quite annoying on grasscourts, and I expect fatigue to not be as much of a factor for a young player. Sonego in 5.
Umbert Monfils : Monfils has taken a nice vacation through the start of the grass season, and as stated in his contract, he must play at like one Frenchman in the first two rounds of a major. I haven’t heard injury rumors about him, and while his loss to Kudla is a little troubling I caught that match and he was mostly practicing and enjoying himself. There is a great deal to like about Ugo’s game. He’s a lefty, he has excellent control and poise, and a good enough service game to allow him to remain in the top 100 for a few years at least. Monfils is going to be able to counteract these positives here though, and while he hasn’t shown much determination through the first section of the grass season, for many guys at the peak or end of their career these are warmup events, and I expect Monfils A or B game is enough to get him through this match. Since they’re French and since it’s Monfils, you’re going to have to consider that a 4 or 5 set clash could ensue, so I would avoid betting on it, but Monfils should come through here with relative ease. Monfils in 4.
Medvedev Lorenzi : Lorenzi is the most annoying player on tour who no one should lose to. People do though, and his fight and skill at 37 steal him enough victories each year to keep him just around the 100-150 level. Medvedev is a player capable of the kind of anger and frustration that net Lorenzi most of his wins, but Medvedev in rage mode features no alterations in play and possibly even better serving than usual. This is oneway traffic. Medvedev in 3 incredibly drawn out sets.
Carreno Busta Popyrin : Oddsmakers have Popyrin as a favorite in this one and the reason is the consistency that PCB has shown to lose close matches since his return. He has been losing the first set in almost 75% of his matches since his return from injury and this is a crusher on a surface like grass where it is hard to manufacture breaks which are really where PCB has always made his money. I cannot count the number of times PCB was broken at the end of a set and broke right back. He showed some promise before losing to Sonego in Antalya but he just isn’t back to his peak yet. Popyrin is unproven on tour, and while he’s notched some wins here and there the best thing about his game is his game. Results aside, Popyrin is one of the best talents in terms of ceiling on an Australian roster that features nothing but young talent right now with Kyrgios/De MinauThompson/Bolt etc. This is a real test on a real stage for him as PCB does not give anything away and has a representative service game, and I’d be hard pressed to call a clear winner here. I do think that coming through qualifying will give Popyrin a decent amount of confidence, and that notion that “this guy may be vulnerable” is enough that if he’s able to nose ahead he could win this match. While PCB’s level hasn’t quite returned to 2017 2018 level, he is still the way more experienced player. I expect this to go 5 sets, with the winner being a coinflip. Popyrin in 5.
Chardy Klizan : Chardy has played some grass since the French and Klizan has not, seemingly, played at all. In a bo5 match Klizan may find his game and begin to pressure Chardy, but Chardy’s offense is such that he will likely already have a 1 or 2 set lead before this happens. I don’t see either guy getting blanked, and Chardy simply will be the more prepared player. Chardy in 4-5.
Klahn Goffin : Goffin is back, my friend announced recently. A former high level tennis player and a current pro announcer, his words were just what I’ve been waiting to hear. After an eye injury which seemingly reduced all aspects of his game for months, Goffin finally began to show good form in Hertogenbosh and Halle. Wins over Berretini, Zverev, and Hughes Herbert are the most notable for me, as these players all present defensive challenges that the old Goffin was apt to solve, and the recent Goffin has been apt to get rolled by. A fairly simple first round opponent in Klahn will not present much opposition, and while Goffin can make anything into a match, I believe he would have to throw this one to avoid finding himself in the second round. Goffin in 3.
Edmund Munar : Edmund began to show some excellent quality this week in his match against Evans. After not much of a season, and a first set where Evans showcased his entire variety in exchange for multiple breaks and multiple rounds of applause, Edmund again found a way to apply his forehand in a manner that breaks down his opponents mental game and turns them into defensive grinders. While he wasn’t able to find the cracks in Taylor Fritz game, playing on home soil against a clay court specialist should find him in the driver’s seat. Munar has actually shown more early in the grass season than I expected, holding serve enough to get to a tiebreaker against Fucsovics and Coric. That doesn’t offer much hope in terms of beating an in-form Edmund with the crowd at his back, however, and he will likely bow out and head to the hardcourt swing. Edmund in 3.
Majchrzak Verdasco : Verdasco had the good fortune to be part of Sam Querrey’s return from an ab injury, but still nabbed a set. This is notable for me because had he not shown a spark of competition, it would be easy to write him off here. Some may remember Majchrzak from his marathon match with Kei Nishikori at the AO 2019, where had he not succumbed to cramps he would have likely pulled the upset and already been on the main tour. Life is a struggle however, and while Majchrzak has spent the last few months on the challenger tour, he has been racking up wins and will be ready for this stage. A big serve and crisp groundstrokes make him best suited I believe for a fast hardcourt, but the grass could easily be his coming out party. He came through qualifying and while I’m sure Verdasco won’t be taking this lightly, he will have a hard time shutting the kid out. In a match that will largely be decided by whose offense makes more errors, we may see the first upset of the 1st round here. Verdasco is a guy who requires favorable conditions to compete, and on an outside court against a “random” I don’t think he will do much besides complain if Majchrzak begins to roll. Majchrzak in 4.
Arnaboldi Karlovic : I’ll be honest, I don’t know Arnold Arnaboldi. I don’t know if his first name is Arnold either, but it would be cute if it was, so it is. Having come through qualifying, I can guarantee he is a quality player with a fairly good ability to hold serve, and that’s enough to mean this match will feature tiebreakers. Who will win those tiebreakers? I have no flipping idea. Karlovic matches are the hardest to predict as until he throws in a bad service game he looks unbeatable, and once he’s in a volley it almost appears that he cannot play tennis at all. The grass suits his slices and volleys, and he would appear to be fresh after skipping the clay season and the grass. Karlovic in 4 or 5.
Fabbiano Tsitsipas : After a good week and a nice warmup match with Querrey, Fabbiano has drawn a terrible first round opponent. While he is coming off a loss to FAA, Tsitsipas is one of the best and most well-rounded players on tour right now and has the edge in their past matchups. Fabbiano is a threat for an upset and has pushed some guys in the past, but he’s been a bit unlucky here with the draw and this should be a bit more than he can handle. Tsitsipas in 4.
Anderson Herbert : Is Anderson back? Oddsmakers do not believe so, but also believe so. Anderson sits at -220 on Bovada and in what has been one of his best events in the past, this is a bit low. Herbert is one of the most skilled players on tour and is excellent at net, but his lack of power has at times kept him in matches he should have been able to win in quick fashion. Anderson looked unimpressive in his first match back from injury, and the jury is out on whether he is fully recovered, with a loss to Simon not really lending itself to believing that a deep run at Wimbledon is on the way. For gambling porpoises I would avoid this one, but as a spectator it is another intriguing story at an excellent event. Herbert has been on the edge of some big wins it has seemed at times, and a rusty Anderson may just be his chance to get one. Somebody in 5.
Tipsarevic Nishioka : What a wonderful draw where Thiem plays Querrey and these two get to ball out in the first round. Tipsarevic has made some traction in his return from injury, and Nishioka has made more. While Tipsarevic is a great player with good control and a ceiling higher than Nishioka, that ceiling is well behind him and Nishioka is a difficult player to put away. I expect shockingly long rallies for grasscourt tennis in this one, and I suspect Nishioka will come out ahead in way more of them than Tipsarevic. Nishioka in 4.
Seppi Jarry : A matchup of opposites. Seppi’s best surface. Jarry’s worst. Seppi’s controlled swing is short and allows him to adjust well in the grass. Jarry’s huge swing leads to all kinds of errors on his groundstrokes. Seppi’s strength is poise and consistency. Jarry wins 1 tournament a year and looks like a top 20 player then double faults his way to first round losses for 3 months. Seppi is towards the end of a bright career and his game is beginning to falter. Jarry is at the beginning of his and at probably his best. After a hard to watch loss to Simon a week ago it would be easy to write Jarry off here, but Seppi lacks the big weapons to put this one away in short order. This is another coinflip and given Jarry’s recent struggles I would not be surprised if Seppi wins. Seppi in 5.
Copil Pella : Marius Copil is a player much like Chardy who is simply a joy to watch. He has a huge serve, a great deal of variety, and a beautiful onehanded backhand. Pella is a player without much flair but with way better results. Primarily a claycourt threat, Pella has defied the odds and grinded through a great deal of hardcourt upsets in the past few seasons. This is a match where Copil should be seen as having the edge with court conditions, but the consistency of Pella will likely make the difference if he is able to make it a physical battle. Hard to say on a grass court if he’ll be able to, and Copil has been able to pull upsets in the past when he is serving well. Pella in 5.
Wawrinka Bemelmans : Scary. Bemelmans has just been a non-factor on the tour after being a consistent 1st 2nd round appearer for 2-3 solid years. Now he’s found his way nicely through qualifying, and plays a resurgent Stan. A bad matchup for Ruben, but a nice welcome back to the tour. Stan did lose to Mahut last week, but Mahut’s game was built for grass and going deep the week before a major has never been something the top guys have done. This should be one way traffic for Stan although given Bemelmans qualifying form, he may be able to steal an early set. Wawrinka in 4.
Stebe Opelka : Stebe’s comeback trail hasn’t really offered him many winnable matches. This could be one. Opelka is so inconsistent a veteran like Stebe might be able to hang around long enough to benefit from the errors, but on grass that becomes even less likely. Opelka has probably the best serve on tour when it lands in, and probably the worst service percentages for anyone above 6’5” on tour. When his serve lands in however, it is not coming back. Stebe is not a particularly gifted returner, and his only real chance here lies in Opelka’s poor returning. While it sounds like I’m painting a picture for Stebe to win, I’m mostly cringing at the thought of the match being on Opelka’s raquet. This is a match that will either be oneway traffic for Opelka, or will be lost by him rather than won by Stebe. Opelka in 4 but I wouldn’t put a single penny on it.
Kovalik Haase : Kovalik’s protected ranking has appeared with a very lucky draw. Haase has struggled of late and seems at the twilight of his career. There are not many first round matchups that Kovalik has a chance in, and the same can be said for Haase. Haase is going to have the bigger weapons here, and the rust has shown for Kovalik in the past few events. Haase in 4 or 5.
Gunneswaran Raonic : It’s hard not to like Prajnesh’ freeswinging left hand. He has a very smooth service motion and a good attitude on court. Raonic is on his best surface however, and while injuries have really made his 2019 a complete bust, this is a warmup match. Watching Raonic serve in the early rounds at Wimbledon makes you wonder how he hasn’t won the event before and watching Federer inevitably return almost every one of his serves at 36 makes you wonder what the other guys are doing. We’ll miss out on that matchup this year, but it’ll be someone other than Gunneswaran who makes returns. Raonic in 3.
Khachanov Kwon : I don’t know a ton about Kwon but Khachanov has been hit or miss all season. What I have noticed, however, is that he tends to step up for the big events. Given his ranking, and his relatively stable place on tour, this may be a conscious choice. Wins over Struff, Kecmanovic, and losses to Berretini do represent a significantly harder schedule however, than Kwon’s impressive (most sets won by 2 or more breaks) path through the qualfying. That kind of talent and his alltime high ranking of 123 mean he does have a chance to nab a set (Karen has a habit of losing a set in every match in majors) but he won’t be able to win this one outright. Khachanov in 4.
Giron Lopez : Lopez is easy to hate while you watch him lose and easy to love while you watch him win. The guy is skillful and creative. Grass is his best surface at this stage of his career by far and he has picked up a titles in both of the past two years. He opens his Wimbledon with a match against Giron who first turned heads in the Australian Open by upsetting Chardy and De Minaur at Indian Wells before eventually falling in the third set to Raonic. An athletic player with a good forehand and a quick serve, he’s a bit one dimensional and this may give a significant edge to Lopez. Breaks are hard to come by on grass and Lopez is one of the most proficient servers on the ol Earth hair. Giron’s game (I haven’t watched the qualifiers I’ll admit) is mostly about power and when he was rushed at IW he did make some careless errors. I think given his form in the qualifiers he will definitely win a set, but Lopez should have the edge if the match gets close with his variety and experience. Lopez in 4-5.
Darcis Zverev : Man if they aren’t trying to keep Mischa on tour. How the actual fluff did he manage to draw Darcis here. The problem is actually that Darcis has the kind of wicked slices and variety that are a nightmare to compete against on grass, but the fortunate thing is that he is getting towards the end of his career. This will come down to whether Mischa is able to get profitably to net, and honestly I am not optimistic. Whoever wins is going to get tuned up by RBA. I was a big fan of Darcis in his Fed Cup heroics, and I think he is probably in better form than Zverev here. Darcis in 5.
Gojowczyk Bautista Agut : This guy RBA is the NBA 6th man winner on the ATP. While not regarded as one of the top 10 guys, he is the same amount of difficult to beat every time he steps on court, and when those top 10 guys play him he pushes them as much as anyone else. On the opposite side of the net we have Gojowczyk, who swings like his name and hits clean flat winners from anywhere. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit as many of them as he misses so far this season, and RBA specializes in punishing this. This match will play about the same as it would on clay, with RBA targetings Gojo’s backhand and hitting as many kick serve to take him out wide and off balance as he can. RBA in 3.
Paire Londero : Londero is adding nicely to his maiden win by notching wins and battling all the way into the grass season. Paire has been the best he ever has, and appears motivated coming into a tournament with a big emphasis on serving and volleying he is one of the shortlist of most talented players at the tactic. This is the classic Paire matchup, a guy who will fight for every point and expose Paire’s impatience, but who doesn’t have the big serving to keep Paire from dictating most of the rallies. If they both show up with frosted tips expect at least one awkward article from Tennis Channel about it, and this is similar to the Verdasco Majchrzak
match in that I do think Londero has a chance if he’s able to get an early lead. I don’t expect Paire’s intensity will be able to win this in straight sets, and I’ll be taking the over here. Paire in 5.
Carballes Baena Kecmanovic : RCB has actually notched some good grasscourt wins to start the season which is an unexpected bonus for a guy who makes most of his dollars on clay. Kecmanovic had a GREAT showing this week in Antalya and for one of the first times on tour will be facing a guy with less offense than him. I’m not sure of the fatigue factor, but given Kecmanovic’s dedication on the challenger tour I imagine his conditioning will get him through at least one or two more matches. Kecmanovic in 4.
Cuevas Dzumhur : Dzumhur finally got a nice win last week over Ebden, and has another chance here against a guy who isn’t famously the most motivated on grass. Cuevas didn’t look great against Jarry, and while I’d like to write him off here, Dzumhur lacks the big serve that Jarry possesses. Dzumhur in 4 tight sets, but I would not be surprised if Cuevas pushes this one to 5, and given Dzumhur’s erratic past, this one isn’t worth predicting.
Vesely Zverev : I love it. If Zverev shows up playing passive, he loses this one in straights. Vesely’s best upsets have come on grass, and he has come through qualifying easily. A big lefty with huge groundstrokes and a powerful serve is the perfect match to get a look at whether Zverev is going to be a threat in this section of the draw or not. I’ll be honest, I don’t suspect he will. Vesely in 4.
Thiem Querrey : Woof. Querrey announced this week that his abdominal issues are behind him, and played some of his best tennis. While a loss to Fritz is not the best, he has struggled with him in the past so it isn’t completely unexpected. Thiem is coming off a brilliant run in the French Open and while he was unfortunate with the weather and scheduling, there’s no shame in losing to Nadal. Grass hasn’t been his favorite surface, but he hasn’t really struggled on it either. A big serve, huge power, and a good base of skill and variety make Thiem a threat to any player at any time on any surface. Querrey is just the opponent, however, to pressure Thiem for time and to take the raquet out of his hand on the serve. With both guys playing at a good level, this one should feature quick sets, several tiebreakers, and a section of the draw that actually looks like it will get easier each round until at least the 4th with Garin/Rublev waiting and the other section featuring dellien/milman/andreozzi/djere. Whoever loses will be disappointed here as this is just the worst 1st round for both. Querrey in 5.
Garin Rublev : Garin looked real efficient and his movement was excellent in his exhibition match against Novak. He’s had a way better 2019 than Rublev who has struggled with injury. Where Rublev has bigger groundstrokes and can get in a great rhythm, he has suffered behind his second serve (double faults at the worst times), and his temper is simply a liability that I think he’s the only one who can’t see. Garin is composed, the better athlete, and in better form. Garin in 4.
Dellien Milman : Oddsmakers have Milman sitting at about -1200. Dellien has been playing clay challengers so this is understandable, but Milman is not the worldbeater that warrants that kind of line. Dellien is a grinder, and Milman is the same. I don’t know if Dellien’s timing will be solid here, and I actually would have liked him to get in some grass practice before the event rather than kind of sticking to his bread and butter. Milman in 3, but if Dellien gets going he could make this a very long 3.
Andreozzi Djere : Neither player has shown much in the way of victories thus far in the grass season. In their previous matchup Djere was able to best him on the slow hardcourts at Indian Wells. Djere is trending upward but grass isn’t exactly his best surface, so this won’t be oneway traffic. Andreozzi hasn’t exactly shown anything that shows he’ll pull the upset so. Tentatively, Djere in 4.
Simon Caruso : Ooooh. Caruso showcased a big forehand and a solid serve at the French, and used the same to good effect to come quickly through qualifying at Wimbledon. Simon managed to wake up after a mundane early season, and looked to be finding his form on the grass. This is one of my popcorn matches for the first round, with Simon being a real slick opponent on the grass but not really having a way to just hit Caruso off the court. On the opposite end, Caruso will need to hit big shots to get through Simon’s defense and will have the chance to. Somebody in 5.
Uchiyama Sandgren : Sandgren has really been hit or miss thus far on the tour. He briefly was very fit and looked to be stepping it up but the results didn’t follow. He notched two mid-level wins in Eastbourne, and while Ichiyama might be looked at as having a better level currently after coming through qualifying, 5 sets with Kubler isn’t really tour level stuff. Sandgren owns the h2h matchup 3-0 in this one, and I do think it’s a bit of a coinflip, but this has to be a mental battle for Uchiyama. I really don’t know who I expect to win this one.
Fucsovics Novak : Tough draws are Marton Fucsovics reward on tour for about two years now. This one is no different. Countryman Dennis Novak seems to only show up for majors, and with his power and crisp serving he is a danger to anyone in the first round. This one can’t go anything but the distance with Novak’s form a great threat but Fucsovics defense and fitness being just a job and a half to hit through. Whoever wins here I expect to beat the winner of Tiafoe and Fognini so i’m excited to find out and hopeful it’s Fuscovics as he’s primed for some major results with his game. Fucsovics in 4-5.
Tiafoe Fognini : Two guys who are sure they’re better than they are. Fognini hasn’t played since Rolan Garros and there’s a part of me that thinks he won’t be making much noise at this event. Tiafoe has been having a disappointing month but has at least been active despite his losses. Whoever wins will earn a war with Fuscovics or Novak and this pleases me. Tiafoe likely has the better chance and the higher level of motivation here. Tiafoe in 4.
Cilic Mannarino : Mannarino is so very capable on grass. His forehand dips so nicely and his serving game is light years better with the aid of the swift stuff. Cilic’s reach should give him the edge here, neutralizing this. Mannarino is working with smaller weapons and it will show here. Despite some disappointing results, Cilic is still a threat and a fairly consistent performer at most majors. Cilic in 4-5 unless his backhand is unable to find the court on returns.
Sousa Jubb : A great draw for Jubb who is making his debut at a major. A great draw for Sousa who isn’t at his best on grass but has been fighting and earning some good wins the past few weeks. Who wins? Probably not Jubb. Inexperience and Sousa’s ability to make matches a physical test are going to rob him of this opportunity, but qualifying as a teenager is simply an amazing accomplishment and given Sousa’s relatively weak backhand, there is a chance Jubb could steal a set. Sousa in 4.
Delbonis Evans : Evans is having the best grasscourt season of anyone. He has gotten in a ton of matches, has had some wars and his skill level is the best it ever has been. A lot of people have been tagging him as a dangerous floater for anyone in the draw, and this is where my opinion deviates. While he’s an excellent skilled player, Evans works with smaller weapons, and has to maintain top level in every match he plays. I don’t believe he’d be favored against most of the top 50, but I was hoping he’d get some winnable matches as his variety is very relaxing to watch. Enter Delbonis. One of the biggest swings on tour and one of the most consistently well performing guys on clay, grass is something he plays but without much success. This is the perfect matchup for Evans, and with Ward/Basilashvili waiting there is a chance Evans can make a third round and get himself some valuable points he will need heading into a very difficult hardcourt season. Evans in 3.
Ward Basilashvili : Basilashvili hits one of the hardest balls on tour, and has to be favored in this match. Ward, however has some nice wins over Kudla/Karlovic/Stakhovsky this season which show he at least will be competitive in this match. Although Basilashvili lost to Fucsovics and Berretini, he represents a step up in level for Ward and it may be the end of the road here for the hometown favorite. Basilashvili in 4.
Shapovalov Berankis : Shap looked good in his exhibition against Novak and this is an ideal first round opponent for him. Berankis will be hard pressed to earn break points against Shap’s offense and Berankis profits mostly from his power and Shap’s defense will be able to negate that. Shapovalov in 4.
Tomic Tsonga : A lot of people were upset with his loss to PCB but Tomic has been trying at tennis and that, my friends, is a miracle. I expect him to try here too and to make this loss respectable. On the other side of the net Tsonga has a bigger serve, better fitness, and the lowest percentage running one handed forehand pass in the game. Tsonga Shap 2nd round should be entertaining. Tsonga in 3 or 4.
Kyrgios Thompson : The mental battle of the year for Kyrgios. Thompson will work hard and make Kyrgios do the same if he wants to win. Will Kyrgios engage and fight and “stoop” to Thompson’s level to get the work done? I haven’t seen anything to indicate that he is capable of that level of fight. I think if Thompson can stay tight in his service games, Kyrgios will get impatient and make an early exit. Kyrgios’ body with someone else’s brain could win Wimbledon, but all his antics and all his injury faking and all his talking to the crowd are just the actions of someone who is scared to try. Scared to find out how good he really is. Scared to care. Less tools, but all Thompson does is care and try. Thompson in 4 depressing sets.
Sugita Nadal : Shame Sugita did not draw someone else as he is a pretty solid grasscourt player. Nadal has bitched and moaned about the seeding and kinda ruined any chance of me cheering for him here, but this should be over in straight sets. Nadal in 3.
Nishikori Monteiro : Good warmup match for Kei and while Monteiro is a dangerous lefty, Nishikori’s backhand neutralizes the crosscourt forehand. This won’t be as simple as Kei in straights for the simple reason that his serve is semi-useless so far this season, but he should be able to get the win because Monteiro just isn’t the offensive terror that can hit Kei off the court. Kei in 3-4.
Istomin Norrie : For a big serve, Istomin’s grass season has been fairly disappointing. Expect that to continue here with the hometown favorite Norrie playing his scrappy game to good effect. A loss to Rosol and Jubb don’t inspire hope in Istomin having the serving together to beat a player on the rise like Norrie. Norrie in 3-4.
Johnson Ramos-Vinols : Johnson has a good chance to get some ranking points here. ARV isn’t much on the grass and hasn’t been that strong at all in 2019. A good serving performance has bolstered Johnson’s confidence in his last few outings and he should roll here. If the writeups seem like they’re getting shorter it’s because omg there are a lot of matches in this tournament. Johnson in 3.
Cecchinato De Minaur : De Minaur season is fast approaching as we get this silly dirt and grass behind us, and while this one on paper should be a lock for De Minaur, he had a disappointing loss to Bedene who is a great grasscourt player but a guy you should be putting away if you want to be considered a “lock.” Still, Cecchinato’s best result on the grass swing has been only coughing up one break per set against Hurkacz, and this will be one way traffic as ADM is unlikely to give up the momentum once he gets it. De Minaur in 4 but probably 3.
Struff Albot : Everybody’s adorable favorite Albot cannot seem to avoid Struff these days. On hardcourt, this is a closer test. On grass, the edge in power and serve favors Struff too much for Albot to do much more than take a set. Struff in 4.
Fritz Berdych : Another great popcorn match. With Berdych having taken much of the past few months off, it’s hard to guess what to expect here. Oddsmakers notched Fritz at -170, and this is a nod to his only real result of the year, which is his title in Eastbourne. Honestly, I would expect his run to continue, but if Berdych is healthy, this will be an epic contest. Fritz in 4 or Berdych in 5.
Andujar Kukushkin : Kukushkin will have too much variety and experience here for Andujar to have a shot at winning this. A claycourt specialist, dont expect much in the way of results from Andujar for the rest of the year. Kukushkin in 3.
Ruud Isner : Isner published one of the most awkward comments of the year this week stating that if he lost in the first round he would go home a net loser. Travelling with his family, a team of coaches, a doctor, and being able to shell out for a house within walking distance of Wimbledon is a beautiful thing and something to be thankful for, not a burden to be pointed out in the media. Playing professional tennis is a blessing, not something to be negotiated at the ol dollar table. Besides, Isner is not going to lose first round. Ruud should make it to a few tiebreakers, but Isner’s serve at Wimbledon is something that will carry him through most matches and the first round is something (barring a secret injury) that he should not experience any fatigue for. Isner in 4.
Berretini Bedene : One of the bright points of this season has been Matteo (win every single close match) Berretini. Simply put, the kid does not blink. With Baghdatis likely waiting in the second round I do expect Berretini to make a nice run here, and it will start with a good grasscourter in Bedene but a guy who traditionally does not beat the top 20-30 guys. Berretini in 3.
Schnur Baghdatis : In what may be his last Wimbledon, Baghdatis has been lucky enough to draw lucky loser Brayden Schnur. I predicted Marcos would be finding his way off the tour a season ago, but he surprised me with his ability to win matches and his exceptionally solid backhand. A quick warmup with FAA last week, and Marcos looks to make at least the second round here against Schnur who has shown promise on the hardcourt but no real results to suggest he will win this one. Baghdatis in 4.
Koepfer Krajinovic : Oddsmakers have this as a pickem and these are two very different men entering this contest. Koepfer plays mostly on the challenger level, but is coming off a grasscourt title in his last outing. Krajinovic hangs with some of the top guys on tour, but hasn’t played since the French Open. I admit I’m not very familiar with Koepfer’s game but it looks like he is the favorite here. Perhaps Kraj is injured or perhaps Koepfer is that good. I am excited for the latter and will be watching this one for sure. No pick.
Ebden Schwartzman : Diego isn’t much on grass. Ebden is just having a terrible season. Grass is traditionally Ebden’s best surface but he hasn’t done much this year, and there’s no reason to think that it will start now. Diego in 3-4.
Pouille Gasquet : As per contract all French players must play each other in every event, or maybe there are just so many of them that this happens? I don’t like this matchup. Gasquet is excellent on grass and while he’s at the middle/tailend of his career, I would love to see him playing towards the end of the first week. Pouille is a great talent and I love his aggression on the court. This is a tough match to call and when I peek and see J Clarke playing Noah Rubin and Bublik playing Barrerre below them, I kinda cringe. Pouille likely has the edge in form and Gasquet the edge on this surface, but it will be hard for either of these guys to put the other away quickly. Somebody french in 5 (probably Pouille).
Bublik Barrere : I’m still waiting for Bubliks talent to match his mental game but it’s starting to materialize. Barrere is a solid talent and has qualified at a few majors already. Bublik leads the h2h with the one win coming by narrow margin (7-6, 7-5) in 2019 but also has been playing better comp so far on the grass. A 5 set win over Liam Broady will give Barrere confidence but may indicate that his level is not quite what it is on clay. Bublik in 5ish.
Clarke Rubin : idc
Harris Federer : Federer in 3.

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