Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.	Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.	Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.	Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.	Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.	Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.	Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.	Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.	Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures ~~suicidal thoughts~~ losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.	Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.	Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.	Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.	Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.	Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.	Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.	Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.	Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.	Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.	Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.	49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.	Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.	Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.	Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.	Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.	Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.	Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.	Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.	Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.	Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.	Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.	Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.	Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

[OC] Super Bowl LV by Numbers & Patterns

About this Post

Leading up to the Super Bowl, we often hear the same storylines repeated. The past two years I decided to put my sports research into high gear and dig up some of the unusual patterns of Super Bowls past and see how they may correlate to the upcoming Super Bowl. (The links to those posts are below.)
LIV Post
LIII Post
LII Post
This year I have not been able to dig up quite as many patterns and strange storylines outside of the mainstream, but I am here to share what I have been able to find. I may make reference to some of the more commonly discussed storylines, but I strive to keep things different and new. I hope you enjoy!

Time & Place

Tampa Bay

Super Bowl LV is the 5th Super Bowl held in Tampa, FL (4th most in any city) and the 17th in Florida (most Super Bowls in any state). This is the third time the Super Bowl will be held in Raymond James Stadium.

AFC/AFL teams are 3-1 in Tampa
The first Super Bowl in Tampa (XVIII) was designated as an AFC home game. Since, all have been designated home for NFC teams (including LV)
Designated Home teams are 2-2
The first 2 Tampa Super Bowls saw the AFC teams win the coin toss, while the NFC teams have won the last 2
The first Super Bowl in Tampa (XVIII) has the coin toss winner win the game. Since, all coin toss winners have lost the game
The first 3 coin toss winners elected to receive the opening kickoff, the most recent (Cardinals in XLIII) elected to defer
Official weather has been listed as either partly cloudy or mostly cloudy for every Tampa Super Bowl
Teams in white jerseys (all away teams before this year) are 2-2, teams in red jerseys are 0-1

February 7th

The two prior Super Bowls on February 7th were:

Super Bowl XLIV (2010) in Miami Saints defeat Colts 31-17
Super Bowl 50 (2016) in Santa Clara Broncos defeat Panthers 24-10

February 7 seems to favor the NFC East (and maybe slightly factor the AFC West). 2 of the last 3 NFC South Super Bowl appearances were on February 7th. 1 of the last 2 AFC West appearances. All have been aired by CBS.

Eastern Time Zone

In the previous 23 Super Bowls played in the Eastern Time Zone, the NFL/NFC teams have won 10, and the AFL/AFC teams have won 13.
The Chiefs are 1-0 in Super Bowls in the Eastern Time Zone (Last year vs SF in Miami)
The Buccaneers have not played a Super Bowl in the Eastern Time Zone (Tom Brady is 2-1 in ET Super Bowls)

Designated Home Team

This year is unlike any other in history, with a team hosting the Super Bowl at its home stadium. The NFL has told the team it cannot use its cannons to celebrate touchdowns as the team normally does at home games, but this feat is still noteworthy. Super Bowl XIV in 1980 was held at the Rose Bowl and the Los Angeles Rams lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the nearby Rose Bowl was not the home stadium for the Rams. Similarly, Super Bowl XIX in 1985 was held at Stanford Stadium and the San Francisco 49ers beat the Miami Dolphins, but Candlestick Park was the home stadium for the 49ers.
It is also worth noting that Super Bowl LV was initially scheduled to be played in the new SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, while Raymond James Stadium was scheduled for Super Bowl LVI. This makes the home-field advantage a little bit weirder, as the first home Super Bowl wasn't even supposed to happen this year.
The designated home team in Super Bowls alternates between AFC and NFC. In odd numbered Super Bowls (like LV [55]), the NFC is designated home. The designated home teams have an all-time record of 22-32. In the last 9 Super Bowls, the designated away teams are 7-2. In the last 14, designated away teams are 11-3. (Green Bay, Denver, and Kansas City being the only teams to win as designated home)
Kansas City was the designated away team in the first Super Bowl. They lost to Green Bay. In Super Bowls IV and LIV, the Chiefs won as the designated home team. In Super Bowl LV, they return to being the away team.
Tampa Bay was the designated home team in Super Bowl XXXVII when then defeated the Oakland Raiders.
Based on home designation, both teams' histories signify a favorable outcome for the Buccaneers

Patterns & History

This is the first ever Super Bowl to feature the two quarterbacks who won the previous two Super Bowls

Teams in Super Bowls

The Chiefs are 2-1 in Super Bowl history (SBs I, IV & LIV) In both of Kansas City's previous Super Bowls, the following are true:

NFC team won the opening coin toss
Designated home team won the game
KC wore white pants & red helmet [they won both when wearing a red jersey]
Team wearing white jersey has lost

The Buccaneers are 1-0 in Super Bowl history (SB XXXVII) Relevant notes from Tampa Bay's previous Super Bowl:

Both designated home
Played in the third longest Super Bowl (3hrs, 50mins)
Tampa won the coin toss and elected to receive

Tampa Bay is one of four franchises with an undefeated Super Bowl record, and is seeking to become only the second to be undefeated with more than one win:

Baltimore Ravens -- 2-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 1-0
New York Jets -- 1-0
New Orleans Saints 1-0

Uniform Success

As designated Home team, the Buccaneers elected to wear their white jerseys with pewter pants (and their pewter helmets). In their only previous Super Bowl (which they won), the Buccaneers wore red jerseys with pewter pants and helmet.
Super Bowl teams wearing these colors have the following results:

Pewter Helmet: 1-0 (TB 1-0)
White Jersey: 34-20
Pewter Pants: 1-0 (TB 1-0)

The Chiefs will wear their home red jerseys and white pants as they did last year. The Chiefs lost in the first Super Bowl wearing white jerseys, but won in Super Bowls IV and LIV wearing red jerseys (All with white pants and red helmets). This season, the Chiefs were 9-2 in red jerseys (8-2 in red with white pants), while going 7-0 in white jerseys.
Super Bowl teams wearing these colors have the following results:

Red Helmet: 2-5 (KC 2-1) [Bills have other 4 losses]
Red Jersey: 6-4 (KC 2-0) [SF has 3 wins, TB has 1 win; NE, SF, ARI, ATL have 1 loss each]
White Pants: 15-28 (KC 2-1)

The Chiefs have the following records in Super Bowls wearing these uniform combinations:

White Jersey, White Pants: 0-1
Red Jersey, White Pants: 2-0

So why did the Buccaneers elect to wear white jerseys?
Some might argue it is because they lost to the Chiefs (in Tampa) in week 12 and didn't want to repeat that. Others will cite their 2020 record by uniform -- 9-2 in white jerseys [including 5-0 in white with pewter pants], 3-2 in red jerseys, 2-1 in pewter jerseys. You could look at the history of Super Bowls and teams 34-20 record in white jerseys including 13-3 in the last 16 Super Bowls (Packers Green, Eagles Green, Chiefs Red).
How uncommon is it for the designated home team to elect to wear white jerseys in the Super Bowl?
Well, there are 6 previous occurrences, with a 4-2 record:

SB	Home Team in White	Result	Reason (not confirmed)
XIII	Cowboys	Lost 35-31 to Steelers	Cowboys White Jersey Tradition
XVII	Redskins	Won 27-17 over Dolphins	Unknown, but rumors of red jersey struggles
XXVII	Cowboys	Won 52-17 over Bills	Cowboys White Jersey Tradition
XL	Steelers	Won 21-10 over Seahawks	White throughout playoffs, kept trend
50	Broncos	Won 24-10 over Panthers	Curse of Orange in Super Bowl
LII	Patriots	Lost 41-33 to Eagles	12-1 record in prior 13 Super Bowls

Patches

In every Super Bowl since XXXII (1997), the teams participating in the Super Bowl have worn a patch of the Super Bowl logo on their jerseys. Additionally, Super Bowls XXIX and XXV saw the same type of patches. In all of these cases, the tradition has been for the patches to be placed on the upper left chest (heart area) of the jerseys. This means that Super Bowl LV will be the 26th Super Bowl with game logo patches on the teams' jerseys. The Chiefs will be wearing the patch on the right of the jersey this year as they traditionally have the Lamar Hunt AFL patch on the left. Teams that go against the tradition are 4-2. The most recent occasions were the 2011-12 Ravens who beat the 49ers and last year's Chiefs defeating the 49ers.
The following are the teams that have worn the SB logo patches on the right side of the jersey due to another patch already on the left:

Super Bowl	Team	Patch on Left	Result
LV	Kansas City Chiefs	AFL/Lamar Hunt Team Uniform Tradition	TBD
LIV	Kansas City Chiefs	AFL/Lamar Hunt Team Uniform Tradition	Win
XLVII	Baltimore Ravens	"Art" honoring Art Modell	Win
XLVI	New England Patriots	"MHK" honoring Myra H. Kraft	Loss
XLV	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers logo Uniform Tradition	Loss
XLIII	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers logo Uniform Tradition	Win
XL	Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers logo Uniform Tradition	Win

It may be worth noting that in SB X, the Steelers and Cowboys wore Bicentennial patches, but Dallas had them on their shoulders. Additionally the Giants wore memorial patches to honor a fallen teammate in SB XXI.

Matchup History

The Chiefs and Buccaneers have played head-to-head 13 times before, all in the regular season. The Chiefs won the first matchup in 1976, the Buccaneers followed up with two wins, then 4-straight for Kansas City, then Tampa Bay won 5 in a row, and finally this year's week 12 meeting went to the Chiefs.

Tampa Bay is 7-6
Tampa Bay leads in points 267-260
Tampa Bay is 4-0 when both teams wear the uniform combos for Super Bowl LV ('04,'08,'12,'16) including twice at Raymond James Stadium
Kansas City is 1-3 at Raymond James Stadium
Home teams are 7-6 in the series
Tampa Bay is 5-1 wearing Pewter helmets, 2-5 in white helmets from the creamsicle era
One Overtime game in the series
Lowest scoring game: 3-0 Tampa Bay (12/16/79); Highest scoring game: 34-31 Tampa Bay (11/07/04)

Broadcast

Since 2000, the 7 Super Bowls on CBS have had the following characteristics:

NFC won 6 of 7 coin tosses, first 4 receive, last 3 defer
First 2 teams defended north, 2 defended south, 2 defended east, 1 defended west (Raymond James is N/S)
All February 7 Super Bowls have been on CBS
AFC has won 6, NFC has won 1 (Saints)
3 NFC South teams have played, 1 AFC West team has played

Coin Toss

For those that are familiar with my work, I am a coin toss guru. I love looking for random patterns in coin tosses. Here are some notes about Super Bowl coin tosses and these two teams:
In Super Bowls:

AFC teams have kicked the opening kickoff 32 times
Teams that kick the opening kickoff in previous Super Bowls are 25-29
Teams that win the coin toss are 24-30
Teams that win the coin toss and defer are 3-8
Teams that win the toss and elect to receive are 21-22

In Super Bowls I-XLII & XLIV, every team that won the toss elected to receive. In SBs XLIII & XLV-present, every team to win the toss has elected to defer. But recent history has been strange...
Recent Super Bowls:

In the last 6 Super Bowls, the team that won the toss lost the game (all deferred)
The NFC team has won 6 of the last 7 coin tosses
In the last 17 Super Bowls, only 6 teams have called heads, yet only 7 heads have actually occurred
8 teams have made a correct coin toss call in the past 17 Super Bowls (30 all-time)

Officials

Position	Number	Official	Super Bowl Experience
Referee	51	Carl Cheffers	LI (R)
Umpire	11	Fred Bryan	LIII (U)
Down Judge	53	Sarah Thomas	-
Line Judge	59	Rusty Baynes	50 (LJ)
Field Judge	95	James Coleman	-
Side Judge	103	Eugene Hall	LIII (FJ)
Back Judge	105	Dino Paganelli	XLVII (BJ)
Replay Official	-	Mike Wimmer	XXXVII (Video Op) XLIX (Replay Official)
Replay Assistant	-	Sean McKee	-
Alt R	14	Shawn Smith	-
Alt U	128	Ramon George	-
Alt DJ	6	Jerod Phillips	-
Alt LJ	84	Mark Steinkerchner	XXXIX (LJ) & XXXVII (LJ)
Alt FJ	97	Tom Hill	XL (SJ), XLIX (SJ) & LII (FJ)
Alt SJ	26	Jabir Walker	-
Alt BJ	88	Brad Freeman	-
Alt Replay	-	Mark Butterworth	-

Mark Steinkerchner and Mike Wimmer were involved in the Buccaneers previous Super Bowl. Cheffers, Bryan, and Hall have all officiated Tom Brady Super Bowls (As have alternates Steinkerchner and Hill). Sarah Thomas officiated the Week 12 game between these two teams (with Tom Hill and Ramon George)

Divisions

The NFC South is 1-2 vs the AFC West in Super Bowls All-Time (TB responsible for the win)
The Buccaneers are 1-0 in Super Bowl appearances:

1-0 vs. AFC West ( Raiders)

The Chiefs are 2-1 in Super Bowl appearances:

1-1 vs. NFC North (Win vs. Vikings, Loss vs. Packers)
1-0 vs NFC West ( 49ers)

Rule of 11s

Looking back at Super Bowls XI, XXII, XXXIII, XLIV to find weird trends:

Teams in white jerseys won all Super Bowls
The Colts are the only AFC representative not in the AFC West, Vikings and Redskins the only NFC representative not in the NFC South
First two in California, the rest in Florida
Home teams lost all Super Bowls
The most recent 3 all had a team call heads, and the NFC team won the toss, and the AFC teams have defended East
All teams have elected to receive, 3 of 4 got the coin toss call correct

Official r/NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

With almost a full preseason of games to finally analyze 2020 with, teams are slowly but surely finding more accurate placement. Don't forget to share all the reasons why the Official NFL Power Rankings is the worst list that has ever existed (until Week 4). 31/32 Reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	+1	3-0	The Chiefs looked like the defending Super Bowl champions against the Ravens and took no prisoners. Despite a slow start to the year, the Chiefs offense woke up in a big way and came out guns blazing and never looked back. The Chiefs defense also turned in a stellar performance at all levels and held the Ravens to only 13 points over the whole game. This is the Chiefs team that was promised in the offseason, and Mahomes further proved why he is the best QB in the NFL by stunting on those hoes.
2.	Seahawks	+1	3-0	Who needs a defense when you have literal Jesus Christ at quarterback? Ol' Pete has really embraced the let Russ cook movement and it shows; Russell's been absolutely unstoppable, no matter how hard DK may try (ilysm DK ❤️💜). Key players like Jamal Adams and Chris Carson suffered injuries against Dallas, but hopefully nothing is too serious. But back to the good stuff. Skybox Schotty has been a godsend this season. The offense is C O O K I N G and nobody's coolin this stove, baby. Not even FITZMAGIC HIMSELF. Oh and FUCK TRYSTEN HILL. ALL THE HOMIES HATE TRYSTEN HILL
3.	Packers	+1	3-0	The Packers are just happy they didn't Bostic that onside kick at the end. Great training for next week against the Falcons
4.	Ravens	-3	2-1	One day, the Ravens will beat Mahomes. But not yesterday. Better hope that OL can take on Chase Young. At least the Ravens have the branding and beltway advantage over WTF for next week.
5.	Bills	--	3-0	Dread it. Run from it. ‘Stache Allen arrives all the same.
6.	Steelers	+1	3-0	It would be improper not to mention the Watt reunion that happened on Sunday, but it was overshadowed by the likely implosion of the Texans' season as Pittsburgh forced them to 0-3 in what was likely already a "must-win" scenario for Houston. This bodes well for the Steelers as the pressure was on them going into this game to eliminate a potential rival early and put the Ravens in the rearview mirror early on by forcing them to keep pace vs a stellar Chiefs team. The Steelers travel to the Titans in what will be a huge road test for them to stay tied for 1st in the AFC.
7.	Titans	+1	3-0	The Titans were able to squeak out a win against the Vikings on the foot of Steven Gostkowski's 6 FGs. Now they face their toughest challenge of the year, navigating multiple positive COVID tests and a shutdown of their facility.
8.	Patriots	+3	2-1	Thuney played great at center, Sony and Burkhead stepped up, and the run game won the day. This coming week at Kansas City is pretty huge, win or lose the Patriots will learn a lot about what they need to improve on as the season goes forward.
9.	Rams	-3	2-1	The Rams have dominated the second half this season, outscoring their opponents 52-20. Unfortunately, a slow start and defensive lapses at key moments meant too little too late versus the Bills and will keep the Rams from going 16-0 this year.
10.	49ers	+2	2-1	After demolishing two teams in the league with a next man up philosophy Belichick would be proud of, some questions remain. Unfortunately a matchup against Philadelphia might not provide all the answers.
11.	Buccaneers	+3	2-1	The Buccaneers pulled off a win on the road against an injury depleted Broncos, putting them atop the NFC South. Tom Brady looked like his usual GOAT self, and the defense racked up 6.0 sacks and 2 interceptions against the Driskel Kid. So with the Bucs playing the Chargers and rookie QB Justin Herbert, it should be an easy win, right? Wrong. Since 2011, the Bucs are 3-12 against rookie QBs, so it could be a rocky upcoming game at home for the Bucs. Combine that with the fact that Donovan Smith will have to block Joey Bosa, and Tom Brady might need to pay his snake oil salesman trainer Alex Guerrero overtime after next week. Unlike the Chargers, however, he won't have to worry about puncturing his lung.
12.	Saints	-3	1-2	Much like Johann Freiderich Bottger, Sean Payton finds himself summonsed before the royal court of Saints fans demanding an explanation why he's failing to produce gold as they expect. The Saints have started seasons in worse positions, but the weight of expectations on this team and the clear lack of synergy on the field (and another PJ Williams blunder) means Sean Payton will be hoping he stumbles upon the recipe for white gold quickly.
13.	Cardinals	-3	2-1	A letdown game seemed inevitable after all the hype and Kyler for MVP talk the past week. Hopefully the team learned from the mistakes and is ready to move on. Taking care of the ball will be a huge emphasis as losing the turnover battle by 3 can't happen. Safety is now also a concern as it appears Budda Baker will be out at least a few weeks. The next two road games will be critical as the schedule will start to get a lot tougher.
14.	Raiders	-1	2-1	The Raiders are not the best team in the league.
15.	Bears	+1	3-0	The big story, of course, is the benching of Mitch Trubisky. Nick B. D. Foles came into the game without any system reps since training camp and casually threw 3 touchdowns in 4:27 of game time. A mix of late-game heroics and tremendous opponent implosions have left the Bears' sitting at the season's unlikeliest 3-0, and if Foles can stay healthy they may have a much higher ceiling on offense than anyone anticipated. Extend Allen Robinson.
16.	Cowboys	-1	1-2	There's a pile of dead bodies on both sides of the ball, but somehow Dallas is still competitive. Despite such bad offensive line play that they did the cupid shuffle at halftime, Dak went blow for blow with Russell Wilson. On the fun side, the team found new and exciting ways to shit their own bed. A muffed kickoff return and multiple missed extra points were some plot twists no one saw coming. Sundays are ugly right now, but if they can get ahold of a Cleric or a Celestial Warlock or maybe a Lore Bard, hell, even a Necromancer, this team could be nasty in a month or so. Plus, its not like there is intense competition to win the division.
17.	Colts	--	2-1	Ho-hum, the Colts destroyed the Jets. Colts fans' were encouraged by the display on Sunday but caution reminds that it was only the Jets, who look entirely uninspired.
18.	Browns	+6	2-1	At 2-1 the Browns finally have a winning record for the first time since December of 2014. 2,123 days to be exact. With Baker Mayfield tossing two touchdowns and Nick Chubb running in two more the Browns have everyone taking note. Is this the year they turn it around?
19.	Texans	-1	0-3	In 2014 Bill O'Brien was given the reins to a team that was struggling. Their offense was anemic, their defense was weak in the secondary, and on the whole they just came up short when it really mattered. Now after 6 years under his leadership, the offense is anemic, the defense is weak against the run, and the team is struggling. Of course Deshaun Watson is better than Tom Savage, and Fat Randy plays for the Bengals now, but really the team feels poised to go 9-7 and fail to come out on top in the critical moments of critical games. I'm sure they'll look better against teams that are weaker than the Chiefs and Ravens, but if the Texans can't challenge the top squads in the NFL, how much have they really moved forward since 2014?
20.	Chargers	-1	1-2	An opponent who should have been a win on paper, a significant player going down to injury (CHJ may miss 4-6 weeks with a foot injury), and falling behind early only to fall short of a comeback. Nothing more 2020 for the Chargers than to go full 2019. Credit Herbert for his poise throughout the game, coming back from that rocky start to become the third QB ever to throw 300+ yards in his first two games. The Chargers, and the offense in particular, cannot afford to have a slow start against Tampa Bay.
21.	Vikings	+1	0-3	Justin Jefferson put up 175 yards and Harrison Smith put up another elite performance, but the Titans still eked out a one-point win thanks to rookie mistakes at corner and the Vikings' interior offensive line getting posterized yet again.
22.	Lions	+7	1-2	This baby can fit so much emotional confusion in it. The Lions defense had 3 picks, which means fans have 3 reasons to be hype for next week. Golladay was a monster as always, but Stafford is making weird mistakes. He took sacks he shouldn’t have, and Detroit has come to expect so much more from the offense... but fuck it. A W is a W. Time to chug the Kool-Aid, because there is an undeserving reason to be hype again.
23.	Dolphins	+5	1-2	Rumors of Fitztragic sightings seem to have died down, as the beard magic shined through en route to Ryan Fitzmagic setting multiple records in a rout of the Jaguars. Is this a sign of what's to come, or just beating up on a bad team?
24.	Jaguars	-3	1-2	[On Location] "The Jaguars decided to take the week off from football inste— (shuffling notes) I'm now being told the Jaguars did not in fact take the week off from football, and were instead embarassed by some old bearded man on Thursday night. Sounds like the squad will have a few extra days to try and get it's act together, as what it says here sounds like the defense was downright abysmal, and likely illegal in at least six states."
25.	Falcons	-5	0-3	In the middle of the fourth quarter on September 27, Arthur Blank's 78th birthday, hundreds of confidently depressed Falcons fans simultaneously predicted something that hadn't ever statistically happened in NFL history with such nonchalance it felt arrogant. Since two churches in 2014 were demolished to make way for Atlanta's new(ly cursed) stadium, under no circumstance has a lead remained safe. All the talent in the world can't stop the Falcons from Falconing weekly in the most Falconly ways ever Falconed. Classic Falcons.
26.	Panthers	+4	1-2	The Panthers notched their first win in week 3. But given the quality of their opponent and the shaky nature of the win, it's hard to read too much into it. The run and pass defenses are still porous, the chemistry on offense isn't quite there yet and Teddy Bridgewater is uneven. All that being said, the team is moving in the right direction and the system continues to gel after a short offseason. In a wide open division like the NFCS, anything can happen.
27.	Washington FT	-2	1-2	Despite QB Dwayne Haskins 3 INT day, Washington had a 20-17 lead in the third quarter before the numerous self-inflicted wounds became too much to overcome. Ron Rivera continues to preach patience and trust in the process while seemingly tapping out in back to back games down 2 scores with timeouts left on the board. Everyone understands the fear of injuries but giving up so readily is a bad look and might contradict the "culture" message that Rivera wants to instill.
28.	Eagles	-5	0-2-1	What kind of coward elects to punt on 4th-and-12 from mid-field with 19 seconds left in overtime? The Eagles' organization is garbage.
29.	Broncos	-3	0-3	Jerry Jeudy has played three NFL games. He has caught passes from three different QBs. No fact better captures the combination of bad injury luck and front office ineptitude that the Broncos have this season. A big steaming turd meets another big steaming turd (the Jets) this week. Whoever wins, America loses.
30.	Bengals	-3	0-2-1	Joe Burrow continues to excel, despite having no training camp, pre-season, or a functioning offensive line. The Bengals are essentially parking their Ferrari on the street right now. Maybe next off-season they can buy a garage.
31.	Giants	--	0-3	The Giants, not to be outdone by their Metlife brethren, went out Sunday and got curb-stomped by the San Francisco Injured Reserves. Daniel Jones has gone from "Danny Dimes" to "Danny Duds" as he looked far inferior to backup QB Nick Mullens Sunday. He can run, but he's had the same problems plaguing him since last year, and no, the blame for that does not rest solely on the OL. The Giants get the LA Rams next, which means we all get to see perennial all-pro Aaron Donald go against their Costco brand-OL.
32.	Jets	--	0-3	In a heroic effort to get Adam Gase fired, Sam Darnold became the first quarterback to throw two pick-sixes in one game since Geno Smith.

Hey - One person believes we could win it all next year. That's something, right?

With the Ravens/Bills divisional round playoff game in Buffalo starting at 8:15 PM ET, this will be the first time the Bills host a playoff game that starts later than 2 PM ET.

C'mon Google

Super Bowl 2021 : NFL Half time show

WEEK 6: Denver Broncos (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)

Offseason Review Series: The 2020 New York Jets

New York Jets

Division: AFC East

1 New England Patriots (12-4)
2 Buffalo Bills (10-6)
3 New York Jets (7-9)
4 Miami Dolphins (5-11)

Coaching Changes

The Jets did not make any major coaching changes this offseason, retaining HC Adam Gase, OC Dowell Loggains, and DC Gregg Williams.

Free Agency

Players Lost/Cut

Player	Position	New Team
Trevor Siemian	QB	Free Agent
Bilal Powell	RB	Free Agent
Ty Montgomery	RB	New Orleans
Robby Anderson	WR	Carolina
Demaryius Thomas	WR	Free Agent
Kelvin Beachum	LT	Arizona
Brent Qvale	LG	Houston
Ryan Kalil	C	Free Agent
Tom Compton	RG	San Francisco
Brandon Shell	RT	Seattle
Brandon Copeland	EDGE	New England
Paul Worrilow	ILB	Free Agent
Albert McClellan	ILB	Free Agent
Trumaine Johnson	CB	Free Agent
Darryl Roberts	FS	Detroit
Rontez Miles	FS	Free Agent
Blake Countess	DB	Free Agent
Lachlan Edwards	P	Free Agent

The Jets reshaped their weapons for Sam Darnold this offseason, losing three veterans and bringing in a number of free agents and draft picks. GM Joe Douglas opted not to re-sign RB Bilal Powell who the Jets drafted in 2011, and he remains a free agent. Most significantly, Douglas allowed his top offensive weapon in WR Robby Anderson to walk to Carolina on a 2-year, $20.0 MM deal, creating a void at outside receiver. The team has also not re-signed WR Demaryius Thomas, who filled in for Quincy Enunwa last season and remains a free agent.

The biggest change that the Jets made to their personnel this offseason was along the offensive line, and as such there were a number of veteran casualties. LT Kelvin Beachum started for the Jets from 2017 to 2019, but he seems to have regressed, but he projects to compete for Arizona on a 1-year deal. The Jets also let C Ryan Kalil go, who unretired to snap for Sam Darnold last offseason but disappointed and got injured, and he remains a free agent. RG Tom Compton was forced into action last season with the injury to Brian Winters, and he, as is characteristic of his NFL career thus far, struggled massively in run blocking and pass pro, but he projects to compete anyway next year for San Francisco on a 1-year deal. Joe Douglas and Adam Gase never expressed interest in RT Brandon Shell for the long term, benching him for the raw Chuma Edoga early in 2019, so it was not a surprise to see the Jets let Shell go to start for Seattle on a 2-year contract.

The Jets mostly kept their 7th-ranked total defense in tact this offseason, only losing two key pieces. EDGE Brandon Copeland left for New England on a 1-year contract, which is not a surprising location, as Copeland is a great utility player, functioning as a rush linebacker, an off-ball linebacker, and a core special teamer for the Jets in 2019. Similarly, Joe Douglas has not re-signed the versatile FS Rontez Miles, who has played high safety, box safety, and a key special-teams role during his seven-year Jets tenure, and he remains a free agent.

The Jets cut CB Trumaine Johnson, which was virtually a no-brainer after two injury-plagued seasons in which his lack of speed was frequently exposed. The only real decision was whether to cut Johnson immediately, which would have resulted in a $12.0 MM dead cap hit in 2020, or to designate Johnson as a post-June 1 cut, which would have resulted in a $4.0 MM dead cap hit in 2020 and a $8.0 MM dead cap hit in 2021. Joe Douglas opted for the latter, meaning that the Jets saved a total of $11.0 MM by cutting Johnson in 2020. Grade: A

The Jets cut FS Darryl Roberts in mid-March. The Jets had high hopes for Roberts following the 2018 season, prompting them to sign him to a three-year contract with an out after one year. Roberts had a rocky first eight games of the season at cornerback before injuring his calf and being benched in favor of Maulet and Austin. Roberts remained a special-teams asset and good safety depth in December, but ultimately GM Joe Douglas decided he could cut Roberts, save $6.0 MM, and look elsewhere for a replacement. Grade: B

Players Signed

Player	Position	Old Team	Length	Salary
Joe Flacco	QB	Denver	1 year	$1.5 MM
David Fales	QB	NY Jets	1 year	$0.9 MM
Frank Gore	RB	Buffalo	1 year	$1.1 MM
Breshad Perriman	WR	Tampa Bay	1 year	$6.5 MM
Josh Doctson	WR	Minnesota	1 year	$0.9 MM
Daniel Brown	TE	NY Jets	1 year	$0.8 MM
Alex Lewis	LG	NY Jets	3 years	$18.6 MM
Greg Van Roten	LG	Carolina	3 years	$10.5 MM
Josh Andrews	LG	Indianapolis	1 year	$1.0 MM
Connor McGovern	C	Denver	3 years	$27.0 MM
George Fant	RT	Seattle	3 years	$27.3 MM
Jordan Jenkins	EDGE	NY Jets	1 year	$3.9 MM
Neville Hewitt	ILB	NY Jets	1 year	$2.0 MM
Patrick Onwuasor	ILB	Baltimore	1 year	$2.0 MM
James Burgess	ILB	NY Jets	1 year	$0.9 MM
Pierre Desir	CB	Indianapolis	1 year	$4.0 MM
Arthur Maulet	CB	NY Jets	1 year	$0.9 MM
Quincy Wilson	CB	Indianapolis	1 year	$1.3 MM
Brian Poole	NCB	NY Jets	1 year	$5.0 MM
Bennett Jackson	FS	NY Jets	1 year	$0.7 MM

Jets GM Joe Douglas used to work in Baltimore, where he was supposedly very influential in the decision to draft QB Joe Flacco, so this signing is far from surprising. While Joe Flacco may be trending down in his play, $1.5 MM feels like a bargain for the chance at solid veteran insurance for Sam Darnold. However, his neck surgery will supposedly keep him out for the opening of the season. Grade: B

After the draft, the Jets signed RB Frank Gore to a 1-year, $1.1 MM deal to ensure that he will play his 16th season in green and white. Gore is a physical back who played under Jets HC Adam Gase in San Francisco in 2008 and in Miami in 2018. Gore can take some of the pressure off of starting RB Le'Veon Bell in 2020 as the Jets move towards a "runningback by committee" system. Grade: B

The Jets-Ravens connection proved strong again with the signing of WR Breshad Perriman. Perriman was a first-round pick for the Ravens in 2015 while current Jets' Director of Player Personnel Chad Alexander was with Baltimore, and though he never really produced at a high level there, he had a resurgence in 2019 for the Buccaneers. Especially in November and December, where he performed at a 1000-yard rate projected over a whole season, Perriman proved to be a legitimate outside option across from Mike Evans with Chris Godwin in the slot. Perriman is a big, athletic receiver who projects to be worth the $6.5 MM deal to get a shot on the outside. Grade: A

Yet again, the Jets signed a former Ravens player, re-signing LG Alex Lewis, who played 2016 through 2018 with Baltimore before GM Joe Douglas traded for him in the 2019 offseason. Lewis stepped in for Kelechi Osemele last season and was a serviceable starter. Lewis is good in pass pro, versatile, and a good zone fit as a guard. However, Lewis could touch up on his penalties and overall run blocking for 2020. GM Joe Douglas only gave Lewis a 3-year, $18.6 MM deal which actually has an out after 1 year, which seems like a solid price to get another look at a 28-year-old guard who might be part of the team's future. Grade: B

The Jets' biggest free-agent singing in 2020 in terms of guaranteed money was former Broncos' C Connor McGovern at $18.0 MM. McGovern is an athletic lineman with experience at guard and center. He is a powerful center, and that serves him well in the run game. However, McGovern has a weak anchor and inconsistent pad level and leverage in the pass game. For this reason, despite the need at center, Joe Douglas' decision to commit two years to a center who is, perhaps, below average in pass pro is worthy of scrutiny. Grade: C

The biggest heavily-scrutinized acquisition that the Jets made in 2020 was probably signing former Seahawks RT George Fant to a 3-year, $27.3 MM contract. Fant functioned primarily as a swing tackle and as a sixth offensive lineman in Seattle, as he could not see the field as a starter over Germain Ifedi. Fant remains a very raw pass protector in terms of his anchor and the fluidity of his kickslide, and his ability in the run is only theoretically a strength in zone blocking. While Fant's contract has an out in 2021, it is a bit strange to see him making a similar salary to Bryan Bulaga and Halapoulvaati Vaitai. Grade: D

The Jets were patient in re-signing their own free agents, which probably helped get good value retaining EDGE Jordan Jenkins. Despite notching 15 combined sacks over the past two seasons, Jenkins only got $3.9 MM from the Jets. The sack number is a bit misleading, though, due to a high quantity of "coverage sacks" and a relatively modest pressure rate. However, Jenkins is a fine run defender, and he'll slot in as EDGE #1 again for the Jets in 2020. Grade: B

The Jets also acquired a former Raven on defense with LB Patrick Onwuasor, and they only paid $2.0 MM to bring him in. Onwuasor is an undersized linebacker but a good linear athlete, and while he struggles reading offensive cues and getting off of blocks to stop the run, he is a really good coverage player with the ability to get home as a pass rusher. Onwuasor has played next to CJ Mosley before, and he could potentially contribute in subpackage and base 4-3 looks, in addition to in a depth capacity and on special teams. Grade: A

With the cuts of Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts, GM Joe Douglas decided to fill a starting cornerback spot with former Colts CB Pierre Desir on a 1-year, prove-it deal. Desir lacks longspeed, but he is a long, physical corner with decent short-area quickness. However, Desir lacks refinement in press and zone. With that said, $4.0 MM is a reasonable price to get a fill-in outside cornerback in 2020. Grade: B

This signing probably didnt get much national coverage, but re-signing CB Arthur Maulet could pay huge dividends for the Jets in 2020. In 2019, Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts failed to hit expectations, forcing Maulet, Nate Hairston, and rookie Blessuan Austin into the outside cornerback rotation. Maulet is the only one of that group who was not benched for performance reasons. For a mere $0.9 MM, retaining a guy in Maulet who is familiar with the defense who will compete to start in 2020 is seemingly a no-brainer. Grade: A

Instead of making another draft choice, the Jets decided to trade pick 211 for former Colts CB Quincy Wilson. Wilson, a former 2nd-round pick, was a raw prospect coming out of Florida, and his penalties and lack of zone instincts followed him to the pros and led to his benching. However, Wilson is a big, long, and athletic corner, and at only 23 years of age, it makes sense that GM Joe Douglas wants to bring him on board to compete in an iffy cornerback room. Grade: C

This signing went somewhat under-the-radar, but Jets fans were thrilled when the team retained NCB Brian Poole to play slot on a 1-year, $5.0 MM contract. Poole is a good run defender with an ability to rush the passer, and he had a career year in coverage in 2019. Brian Poole is a good fit for Gregg Williams' defense, so retaining him to start in 2020 for a mere $5.0 MM seems to be a good value. Grade: B

Draft

Round	Number	Pos	Player	School
1	11	LT	Mekhi Becton	Louisville
2	59	WR	Denzel Mims	Baylor
3	68	FS	Ashtyn Davis	Cal
3	79	EDGE	Jabari Zuniga	Florida
4	120	RB	La'Mical Perine	Florida
4	125	QB	James Morgan	FIU
4	129	LT	Cameron Clark	Charlotte
5	158	CB	Bryce Hall	Virginia
6	191	P	Braden Mann	Texas A&M

The eleventh pick, Louisville LT Mekhi Becton, was my favorite acquisition that the Jets made during the 2020 offseason. While there were other options on the board, namely Tristan Wirfs, Henry Ruggs, and CeeDee Lamb, that the Jets presumably could have considered, Becton was the exact player I thought the Jets should take when he fell to 11. The first thing that stands out about Becton is his massive size, as he's 6'7", 364 lbs, with a monstrous 83-inch wingspan. Becton, however, is much more than a heavy lineman, as he defies expectations with his exceptional 5.1-flat movement skills. Becton is a hulking run blocker who is inexperienced but a fluid mover in pass pro. Becton projects to replace Kelvin Beachum and slide in at left tackle immediately in his rookie season. Grade: A

Wanting to add more picks to build the Jets in his image in his first year as GM, Joe Douglas opted to move down from 48 to 59 in the second round. This was a costly move, as it caused the Jets to miss out on AJ Epenesa and Darrell Taylor, but the Jets managed to grab a falling Senior Bowl standout in Baylor WR Denzel Mims. Mims is a height-weight-speed freak with good length, hands, and blocking. Mims should start at outside receiver across from Breshad Perriman in year one. Grade: B

The Jets' first third-round pick of 2020 was a real surprise to many fans, as although the team already had arguably the best safety tandem in football with Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye, the Jets drafted Cal FS Ashytn Davis with the 68th-overall draft selection. Davis is a freak athlete who played high safety, box safety, and even slot corner at Cal and would almost definitely have been drafted significantly higher but for teams' inability to medically check his groin post-surgery. It's possible that Gregg Williams will utilize Davis as a big nickel defender this year, but this selection could also give the Jets flexibility if Marcus Maye, who is a free agent in 2021, or Jamal Adams, with whom the Jets are supposedly far apart on a long-term contract, depart. Grade: B

Despite having a starting EDGE tandem consisting of Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham and losing Brandon Copeland to New England, the Jets did not add outside talent to the position group before the draft, forcing GM Joe Douglas to pick Florida EDGE Jabari Zuniga at 79 overall. Zuniga is a good linear athlete with a decent ability to set the edge and some interior versatility, and he could project to replace Jordan Jenkins as a starter in 2021. However, Zuniga struggles with stiff hips and slow reaction time at the snap, and plus he missed most of the 2019 season with ankle injuries. The Jets probably hit the right position with Zuniga, who should factor into the pass-rush rotation with Jenkins, Basham, and Kyle Phillips, but it's hard to justify drafting Zuniga with guys like Jonathan Greenard, Terrell Lewis, and DJ Wonnum still on the board. Grade: C

With his first day-3 selection as GM, Joe Douglas chose Florida RB La'Mical Perine. Perine is a physical runner with some receiving versatility out of the backfield. However, Perine doesn't really offer very much in terms of speed or vision, and drafting a RB instead of going offensive line, pass rush, receiver, or cornerback with Le'Veon Bell already in the fold was a curious move. Grade: D

The second of the Jets' 4th-round picks probably stirred up the most intrigue, as most casual football fans probably didn't expect the Jets to draft a quarterback. With that said, the Jets have gone a combined 0-6 over the past two seasons in games that Darnold did not start, and at this time David Fales was slated to be the backup quarterback, so drafting FIU QB James Morgan in the fourth round, which I thought was a value anyway, was a good choice. Morgan is a thick quarterback with a live arm with developmental potential. Grade: B

With their third pick in the fourth round, the Jets chose a player with the potential to start soon on the offensive line in Charlotte LT Cameron Clark. Clark is a powerful lineman who started at left tackle in his rSo, rJr, and rSr seasons and has good short-area quickness despite his 5.29 forty. Some have floated Cameron Clark as a potential convert to guard for the Jets due to his sloppy pass-pro footwork. Grade: B

The Jets addressed the secondary in round 5, taking Virginia CB Bryce Hall at 158 overall. Hall is a long, tall corner who moves well, has zone instincts, and contributes in the run game. However, Hall's struggles in press and off-man probably project him better as a safety in the NFL rather than as a corner, which doesn't seem to be a need with Adams, Maye, and Davis already in the fold, and Hall's ankle injury prevented him from working out at the Combine, leaving teams in a state of uncertainty about his health and his testing numbers. Grade: C

With their 6th-round pick, the Jets went special teams with Texas A&M P Braden Mann. Mann has a big leg and can handle kickoff duties. Mann projects to replace Lachlan Edwards, but this may have been a tad high for a punter. Grade: C

The Jets had an intriguing undrafted free agent class with a number of guys who warranted day-3 draft consideration, but two guys that I liked pre-draft stood out as being worth mentioning. Georgia WR Lawrence Cager is a physical receiver at the line of scrimmage and a redzone threat. Alabama NCB Shyheim Carter played the STAR role in Nick Saban's defense, and he proved his versatility as a college approximation of a nickel corner, a box safety, a high safety, and a subpackage linebacker, and he likely would have been drafted if teams had been able to conduct medical rechecks on him after a minor injury prevented him from working out at the Combine.

Other Offseason News

After tensions flared at the trade deadline last season, SS Jamal Adams expressed his frustrations with a lack of a contract extension on social media before supposedly requesting a trade in June. However, according to Connor Hughes at The Athletic, the Jets still hope to sign Adams to a long-term contract. Reportedly, over half of the teams in the NFL have expressed interest in adding the defensive star, but the Dallas Cowboys have gotten the most traction as a potential trade partner, with La'El Collins and Michael Gallup coming up as potential trade targets. Jamal Adams is still on his rookie contract for 2020, and the Jets accepted his fifth-year option for 2021.

Also, this isn't really news, but former Jets' All Pro CB Darrelle Revis continued his spat with 49ers' All Pro Richard Sherman, culminating in this unusual Tweet:

3 facts here.
@RSherman_25
•I’m more handsome than him according to women.
•I’m better at corner than him according to everyone.
•Shutdown corners are paid more than Zone 3 corners which I’m currently still am today.

Projected Starting Lineup

Pos	1	2	3	4
off
QB	Sam Darnold	J Flacco	J Morgan
RB	Le'Veon Bell	F Gore	L Perine	T Cannon
WR	Breshad Perriman	J Smith
WR	Denzel Mims	V Smith
SWR	Jamison Crowder	B Berrios
TE	Chris Herndon	R Griffin	D Brown
LT	Mekhi Becton	C Clark
LG	Alex Lewis	G Van Roten
C	Connor McGovern	J Harrison
RG	Brian Winters
RT	George Fant	C Edoga
def
EDGE	Jordan Jenkins	K Phillips
EDGE	Tarell Basham	J Zuniga
DT	Henry Anderson	N Shepherd	F Fatukasi
DT	Quinnen Williams	S McLendon
ILB	CJ Mosley	N Hewitt	B Cashman
ILB	Avery Williamson	P Onwuasor	H Langi
CB	Pierre Desir	B Hall
CB	Arthur Maulet	Q Wilson
NCB	Brian Poole	S Carter
SS	Jamal Adams	A Davis
FS	Marcus Maye	M Farley
spec
K	Sam Ficken
P	Braden Mann
LS	Thomas Hennessy

Roster Bubble (In): RB Trenton Cannon, WR Jeff Smith, ILB Harvey Langi, NCB Shyheim Carter, K Sam Ficken

Roster Bubble (Out): WR Josh Doctson, TE Trevon Wesco, LG Josh Andrews, EDGE John Franklin-Myers, CB Blessuan Austin

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

QB - Neutral/Weakness
Jets fans aren't going to love this one, but Sam Darnold is arguably still a bottom-third passer going into 2020. Darnold has been surrounded by a poor supporting cast over the past two years, including a turnstile of receivers with drop issues across Robby Anderson and linemen with pass-pro issues, but he certainly has not dominated like other young quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz. The Jets have a good group behind Darnold, though, including Joe Flacco, who supposedly won't be ready for week 1, and James Morgan, a 4th-round rookie out of FIU.

Backfield - Strength
Le'Veon Bell, who is making $15.5 MM this season, is an all-around back in terms of running between the tackles, receiving, and pass protecting. The Jets also signed the ageless wonder Frank Gore to take some of the pressure off of Bell. Joe Douglas also drafted La'Mical Perine to contribute in the backfield.

Pass Catchers - Neutral/Weakness
In 2020, the Jets are banking on production from unproved pass catchers who have performed well in limited sample sizes. Joe Douglas signed Breshad Perriman, who had a very productive end to his 2019 season, to man one of the outside receiver spots. He also drafted Denzel Mims out of Baylor to presumably also start as a rookie. Jamison Crowder broke out last year as an above-average slot receiver, and Chris Herndon missed virtually all of last season but played well in his rookie season as a tight end. The receiver depth lacks standout names, with Vyncint Smith as the presumptive WR4, but the tight end depth is strong, with Ryan Griffin returning on a multi-year extension.

Offensive Line - Weakness
The Jets entirely remade their offensive line, and while each position is arguably improved on paper, it is still young and unproven. Most significantly, at LT, Joe Douglas drafted Mekhi Becton at 11, who is already a really good run blocker with the tools to grow in pass pro. Douglas also re-signed Alex Lewis, who is probably serviceable but below average, to start at left guard, but he could face competition from 4th-round rookie Cameron Clark. The Jets signed Connor McGovern to start at C, and while he should solidify the position for at least the next two years, he is not extraordinary. Right guard shapes up to be an open competition between incumbent Brian Winters, who is serviceable when healthy, and new acquisition Greg Van Roten. At RT, the Jets signed George Fant, who played mostly as a swing tackle or sixth offensive lineman for Seattle to compete with Chuma Edoga.

Defensive Line - Weakness
This is a tough pill to swallow for Jets fans, but the days of Muhammad Wilkerson, and Leonard Williams are over. At EDGE, the Jets have arguably the worst duo in the NFL with Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham presumably playing as starters, with rookie 3rd-round pick Jabari Zuniga and 2019 UDFA Kyle Phillips playing rotationally and John Franklin-Myers competing for snaps. Starting on the interior, the Jets have Quinnen Williams, the former third-overall selection who notched 2.5 sacks and 4 TFLs in his rookie season and was arrested in March on a weapons charge, and Henry Anderson, a nimble interior penetrator who had a breakout year in 2018 before regressing to the mean in 2019. Nathan Shepherd, Steve McLendon, and Foley Fatukasi should all see plenty of tread on the DL, as well.

Linebackers - Strength
The Jets had a nearly-comical number of injuries at off-ball linebacker last season, but on paper, the unit appears very strong. CJ Mosley, 2019 FA acquisition, missed almost the entire 2019 season with a groin injury, but when healthy, he is one of the best linebackers in football. Avery Williamson, who projects to start across Mosley in 2020, is a good run defender but missed the entire 2019 year with a torn ACL. Returning starter Neville Hewitt, cheap FA acquisition Patrick Onwuasor, and promising second-year player Blake Cashman could each play in various base or subpackage roles, in addition to on special teams.

Secondary - Neutral
Similar to the defensive line, the Jets secondary is a tale of two halves, in this case safeties and cornerbacks. At safety, the Jets have reigning All Pro Jamal Adams and solid free safety Marcus Maye returning, in addition to the versatile 3rd-round pick Ashtyn Davis out of Cal. Outside cornerback is in flux, as new acquisition Pierre Desir should lock up one spot, while Arthur Maulet, Quincy Wilson, 5th-round rookie Bryce Hall, and Blessuan Austin could compete for the other starting spot, with last year's breakout player Brian Poole locking up the slot. Nate Hairston and Shyheim Carter could compete for other key depth roles in the secondary.

Special Teams - Strength/Neutral
At kicker, the Jets had a rocky performance last year, so they brought in Brett Maher to compete with last year's starter Sam Ficken. At punter, the Jets have rookie Braden Mann, who handles kickoffs and whose 47.1 yards per punt would have ranked 4th in the NFL last year. At longsnapper, Thomas Hennessy is an asset in coverage and will return in 2020. Additionally, WR Vyncint Smith and FS Matthias Farley project to play major roles in kick coverage next season, with other jobs up for grabs.

Schedule Predictions

Week 1 at Buffalo: L - Other than the loss of Shaq Lawson and the additions of Stefon Diggs and AJ Epenesa, the Bills mostly had a quiet offseason, though with encouraging performances from young players in Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, and Tre'Davious White and with the team coming off of a 10-6 campaign, there’s a lot about which to be enthusiastic in Buffalo. The Bills, who went 10-6 last year and made the playoffs, beat the Jets here in their home opener. Record: 0-1

Week 2 vs San Francisco: L - The 49ers took a huge leap in 2019, marching through the NFC and into the Super Bowl, and the additions of Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, and Javon Kinlaw should keep them competitive in 2020. If Jamal Adams is on the team, he might be able to get in George Kittle's way, but nevertheless the 49ers should be one of the NFL's most well-rounded football teams, and so it would be difficult to envision the Jets winning in week 2. Record: 0-2

Week 3 at Indianapolis: L - The Colts had a big free agency period, signing Philip Rivers and adding DeForest Buckner in a trade while retaining their entire offensive line. While the Jets went 7-9 last season, just like the Colts did, the Colts probably are the favorites to win at home, especially with the advantage that the Indianapolis offensive line should have over the New York pass rush. Record: 0-3

Week 4 vs Denver: L - While the Broncos went 7-9 last season, they have championship aspirations in 2020, as they went 4-1 in Drew Lock's starts last year and added Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam to a group of weapons already containing Philip Lindsay, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Jeff Heuerman while retaining defensive stars in Von Miller, AJ Johnson, and Justin Simmons. Though it is a home game, the Jets should be seen as heavy underdogs in week 4. Record: 0-4

Week 5 vs Arizona: W - The Cardinals look poised to improve in 2020, with the additions of DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Phillips, and Isaiah Simmons, but questions remain with the offensive line and defensive line, in addition to with the poor playcalling from Kingsbury and Joseph at times during last season. This could be a key game for Quinnen Williams, Henry Anderson, Steve McLendon, and the interior defensive line to feast on a poor Cardinals' interior offensive line and for Gregg Williams to outmatch Kingsbury and Murray at home. Record: 1-4

Week 6 at LA Chargers: L - The Chargers revamped their team this offseason, adding Justin Herbert in the draft and surrounding him with Bryan Bulaga, Trai Turner, and Joe Reed on offense and Kenneth Murray and Chris Harris on defense. Though the quarterback situation is in flux in LA, it’s unlikely that the Jets will go on the road to the West Coast and beat an otherwise well-rounded team. Record: 1-5

Week 7 vs Buffalo: W - The Jets have beat the Bills at least once in 8 of the last 10 seasons, and so the Jets should have a shot to win one at home. Record: 2-5

Week 8 at Kansas City: L - The Chiefs has a pretty quiet offseason aside from locking up Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones on long-term deals, as they added Mike Remmers, Taco Charlton, Willie Gay, and Lucas Niang while losing Stefen Wisniewski, Emmanuel Ogbah, Reggie Ragland, and Kendall Fuller. Despite the offseason losses, Reid and Mahomes should easily be able to storm past the Jets at home. Record: 2-6

Week 9 vs New England: W - The Patriots took a hit this offseason, obviously headlined by the loss of Tom Brady but also supplemented by key defensive losses in Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, and Duron Harmon in addition to a general lack of attention towards improving a lackluster wide receiver corps. The Jets haven't beat the Patriots since their week 16 overtime thriller in 2015, but a November home game could be a good chance to do it, as the Patriots don't really possess the weapons to exploit issues with the Jets' cornerbacks nor the pass rush to exploit issues with the Jets' offensive line. Record: 3-6

Week 10 at Miami: W - The Dolphins had a very poor 2019, finishing 5-11 with the 27th-ranked total offense and the 30th-ranked total defense, and as such they had an incredibly busy offseason, adding Matt Breida, Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah, Elandon Roberts, and Byron Jones in free agency and Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, Robert Hunt, Raekwon Davis, and Solomon Kindley in the draft. However, in Miami before the bye would be a good chance for Adam Gase to get a revenge game win, seeing as the Dolphins still have weaknesses all over their roster including quarterback, offensive tackle, and edge rusher. Record: 4-6

WEEK 11 BYE

Week 12 vs Miami: L - With all their offseason additions, the Dolphins figure to match up fairly evenly with the Jets in 2020, and so it's likely that the two teams will split the season series. Record: 4-7

Week 13 vs Las Vegas: W - The Raiders had a very busy offseason, adding Jason Witten, Maliek Collins, Nick Kwiatkoski, Prince Amukamara, and Damarious Randall in free agency and Henry Ruggs, Damon Arnette, Lynn Bowden, Bryan Edwards, and Amik Robertson in the draft with their only major losses being Darryl Worley and Karl Joseph. At home against a West Coast opponent, the Jets would be wise to take advantage of some of the Raiders’ weaknesses in this game, including inexperience at wide receiver, edge rusher, linebacker, and cornerback. Record: 5-7

Week 14 at Seattle: L - The Seahawks went 11-5 last season and were one play away from securing the top seed in the NFC, so their offseason was pretty quiet, mostly focusing on the offensive line with the losses of Germain Ifedi, DJ Fluker, and George Fant and the additions of free agents Brandon Shell, BJ Finney, and Cedric Ogbuehi, and draft pick Damien Lewis. Pete Carroll is one of the best coaches in football today, and in this late-season matchup at Seattle he’ll have the personnel advantage against the Jets offense, which lacks talented weapons and blockers. Record: 5-8

Week 15 at LA Rams: L - The Rams regressed to 9-7 last year and then had a difficult offseason, losing Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Dante Fowler, and Nickell Robey-Coleman, with their only major addition being A’Shawn Robinson. The 2020 Rams are not the Super Bowl Rams of the past, but with both McVay and Goff still on board, the Rams have to be favorites to take this late-season home game against the Jets. Record: 5-9

Week 16 vs Cleveland: W - The Browns had a busy offseason, hiring head coach Kevin Stefanski, losing Greg Robinson, Joe Schobert, and Damarious Randall, signing Austin Hooper, Jack Conklin, Andrew Billings, Karl Joseph, and Damarious Randall, and drafting Jedrick Wills, Grant Delpit, and Jacob Phillips. Despite these additions, however, Cleveland still has a new, inexperienced offensive playcaller at head coach and a question mark at quarterback, and Gregg Williams generally handles quarterbacks who struggle with post-snap reads well with disguised coverages and aggressive blitz packages. Record: 6-9

Week 17 at New England: L - With the expanded playoffs, the Patriots have an even greater chance to make the postseason this year than they otherwise would, so this late-season match in Foxborough could be a consequential, divisional-revenge game for New England. Record: 6-10

Final Record: 6-10
While I firmly believe that the Jets improved significantly this offseason, especially in terms of the offensive line and getting players back from injury, this year’s schedule is substantially more difficult that last year’s, which could result in less games in the wins column for 2020. Last year, the Jets closed out the back-half of their season going 6-2 playing against rookie Daniel Jones, rookie Dwayne Haskins, Carr, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Lamar Jackson, rookie Devlin Hodges, and Matt Barkley, and this year the Jets have to play both the AFC West and the NFC West, which is a jump in competition level.

Training Camp Battles

WR #2: Denzel Mims vs Vyncint Smith
Jets fans would hope that starting receiver isn’t much of a battle, but since rookie wideouts traditionally are been known to take longer learning the playbook, the other receiver spot next to Perriman and Crowder is in flux. Denzel Mims, the rookie receiver from Baylor, is the odds-on favorite to get a starting role and to play as a deep threat and red-zone threat in year one. However, if Mims proves to be too raw off the bat, the Jets could fall back on Vyncint Smith, who had 17 receptions last year and showed his value as a deep threat.

Left Guard: Alex Lewis vs Cameron Clark
Following a 2019 season where Alex Lewis spot-started in place of Kelechi Osemele, the Jets rewarded him with a 3 year, $18.6 MM contract, and he goes into 2020 as the favorite to start at left guard once again. With that being said, the possibility exists that rookie tackle Cameron Clark out of Charlotte will kick inside and compete at left guard.

Right Guard: Brian Winters vs Greg Van Roten
After a 2019 season in which Brian Winters went down with a shoulder injury in week 10, many expected the Jets to cut him, but he instead will return as the incumbent starter at right guard. However, new free agent acquisition Greg Van Roten could switch to the right side and compete against Winters to start.

Right Tackle: George Fant vs Chuma Edoga
After the Jets had a poor performance form their offensive line in 2019, GM Joe Douglas brought in competition at all position, including at right tackle. George Fant, former Seattle swing tackle, is the presumptive favorite to land the starting job, despite his lack of starting experience. Chuma Edoga could compete as well, but his performance in both run blocking and pass pro was so shaky last year that he needed extensive help from tight ends.

EDGE #2: Tarell Basham vs Kyle Phillips vs Jabari Zuniga vs John Franklin-Myers
The Jets started Jordan Jenkins and Tarell Basham at edge rusher last season, so it was somewhat of a shock to see them add absolutely no outside talent until the middle of the third round, and so now Gregg Williams and the defensive staff are forced to make the pitiful decision between starting Basham, Kyle Phillips, Jabari Zuniga, or John Franklin-Myers across from Jenkins. Basham, who the Jets claimed off waivers in 2018, is the odds-on favorite to start once again after only notching 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hits in 54% of the Jets' defensive snaps. Kyle Phillips, the second-year player from Tennessee who was a five-star high-school recruit, is a thicker lineman best suited to play on run downs who could push for starting snaps as well. Jabari Zuniga, 3rd-round rookie out of Florida, is a third contender for the starting job, but his interior versatility and similarity to Jenkins in terms of his stiffness and poor pad level could suggest the Jets envision him in more of a rotational role. Franklin-Myers, a large and athletic pass rusher who missed last season with an undisclosed injury after the Jets claimed him off waivers from the Rams, could compete for a large snap share with a strong camp.

DT #2: Henry Anderson vs Nathan Shepherd
This battle won't get much media coverage, as both Anderson and Shepherd project to get plenty of tread on the New York defensive line, but nevertheless the two will compete in training camp for the upper hand in the snap count. Henry Anderson, incumbent starter and penetrating defensive lineman, saw his production fall off a bit in 2019, in part due to a nagging shoulder injury. Nathan Shepherd saw his role increase in the back half of the season after a suspension sidelined him from weeks two through eight, and with a good camp, he could establish himself as the primary nimble-footed complement to the heftier, run-stopping trio of Williams, McLendon, and Fatukasi.

CB #2: Arthur Maulet vs Quincy Wilson vs Bryce Hall vs Blessuan Austin
The outside cornerback spot across from Pierre Desir is probably the most open starting battle on the team. Arthur Maulet, the undersized but physical cornerback out of Memphis, is probably the favorite to start after outplaying Johnson and Roberts last season to win the left cornerback job. Quincy Wilson, the former second-round pick, should be Maulet's primary competition after the Jets traded a draft pick to acquire him from the Colts. Bryce Hall, the rookie 5th-round corner from Virginia, is a darkhorse to start as well if he is healthy to start the season. Blessuan Austin, the former 6th-round pick, might factor into the competition, but he'll have to climb out of Gregg Williams' doghouse after reacting poorly to his week-16 benching last season.

Kicker: Sam Ficken vs Brett Maher
Sam Ficken, who hit 70% of his kicks last season, will compete with Brett Maher, who hit 67% of his kicks last season, for the starting kicker job, but neither candidate should have to handle kickoffs with rookie punter Braden Mann in the fold.

Offensive and Defensive Schemes

Adam Gase, head coach and offensive playcaller for the Jets, runs a zone-blocking, short-passing offense mostly out of 11 personnel while also mixing in some 2-TE sets. In the run game, Gase is willing to run gap concepts based on his offensive line personnel, but he favors his inside zone running playcalls. In the pass game, Gase likes to stack his receivers, throw checkdowns, split his backs out wide, and utilize the sidelines.

Gregg Williams, defensive coordinator for the Jets, runs a 3-4 hybrid, blitz-heavy defense with an emphasis on zone coverage. In the front seven, Williams has used both 3-4 and 4-3 base packages, though he mostly uses nickel fronts and one-gapping penetration schemes. In the secondary, Williams stresses MOFC shells, press-zone concepts, and disguised coverages and blitzes.

Huge thanks to u/PlatypusOfDeath for running this series.
Link to hub

Predicting Lions Games || 2020-21 Season || Week 06

Week 06 - Sunday, 18OCT2020, 1:00pm

Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Lions fan here! I'm writing an article series where I predict the outcomes of Lions games using several methods, some of them logical, and some kinda bonkers. It was well-received last year, so this year I thought I would share the fun with our opponents as well. This particular week, the Cat Team Brotherhood also gets in on the action! I hope you enjoy.
The last set of picks swung overwhelmingly in favor of New Orleans, which surprised no one. The outcome of the game also surprised no one. Detroit fans’ resulting apathy, again, surprised no one.
What was surprising is that we managed to come out of the Week 5 bye without a loss.
That said, Detroit has one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, if not the easiest. Does the Week 6 matchup against the Jaguars offer any hope for this ship to be turned around? And, like, taken all the way back to port, decommissioned, and rebuilt into a better, sturdier ship with fewer leaks?
Although I guess if you want a new captain, this ship has to sink first. Are there circumstances under which a maritime disaster can count as a win-win? Asking for 9.987 million friends.
For details about the methodology for these prediction approaches or an explanation of any rivalries, please see here.

Rivalry A: 'Cause I Ain't No Quartaback Girl

Prediction Method 1: Higher QB Rating Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

~~The Man with the Mustache~~ Gardner Minshew is coming into this game with a QBR of 64.9, smack dab in the middle of the league at 16th. Matthew Stafford’s rough year continues to haunt him, as he finds himself at only a 62.9, good for 18th.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 2: Higher Passer Rating Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

The NFL’s own rating finds Minshew with a 99.4, which is 15th in the league. Stafford regrettably lands at 18th once again, with a 93.8.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Rivalry B: As, Of Course, Is Tradition

Prediction Method 3: Better Turnover Differential Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Detroit’s defense continues to sputter, yet they find themselves at a +1 differential after four weeks of play, having made four interceptions while only losing three. Jacksonville, in contrast, lands at -2, seizing five interceptions but losing four of their own and giving up three fumbles. Detroit manages to get their first pick of the week.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 4: Average Points Per Game Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

Even on the worst of days, you can usually expect Detroit’s offense to do...well, something. They’re having problems, sure, but they show flashes of brilliance that make you wonder about alternate realities in which all of their pieces manage to click together. In this reality, however, they rank 19th in the league for PPG, with 24.8 (for reference, Green Bay leads the pack with 38.0). Jacksonville loses this one by exactly one field goal per game, coming in at 26th with an average PPG of 21.8 after five weeks.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry C: Every Now and Then

Prediction Method 5: Best 2019 Record Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

I get sad whenever I have to write about Detroit’s (3-12-1) record from 2019. I also get a little antsy wondering if this year’s will be worse. The Jags probably have a similar feeling, as they finished their 2019-20 season in last place for their division as well. In fact, that’s why we’re scheduled to play each other in the first place (or last place, as the case may be). Still, they have some more wiggle room to work with, as their last place finish came on the frantically flapping wings of a (6-10) year. That’s almost twice as good. Take some comfort in that, Jaguars fans.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 6: Best Team History Record Record: (4-0) / 100.0%

This method is the only undefeated one remaining. We’ll see if that sticks. Jacksonville is one of the youngest teams in the NFL (by longevity, not age of the roster), which means every win and loss has a greater impact on their overall win percentage.
Detroit Lions: (563-673-33) / 45.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars: (177-228-0) / 43.7%
They’re also one of only two teams to never end a game in a tie, interestingly (the other being the also-young Houston Texans). All that this means is that the true Jacksonville legacy is yet to be discovered. It’ll come in time. Which is probably a good thing because as of right now their overall record is worse than the Detroit Frickin’ Lions’.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry D: Upper Management vs The Union

Prediction Method 7: More Experienced Coaching Staff Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Lions:

Matt Patricia: 2 years as a head coach Darrell Bevell: 14 years as an offensive coordinator Cory Undlin: 0 years as an defensive coordinator Brayden Coombs: 0 years as a special teams coordinator Total: 16 years

Bevell has the experience here, and the way this season is going, nobody else in this organization is going to have their NFL coaching careers last anywhere near as long as his.
Jaguars:

Doug Marrone: 5 years as a head coach Jay Gruden: 3 years as an offensive coordinator Todd Wash: 4 years as an defensive coordinator Joe DeCamillis: 32 years as a special teams coordinator* Total: 44 years

Holy smokes, Joe DeCamillis! To be clear, I counted his years listed as an NFL “special teams coach” as experience toward being a special teams coordinator. Even without that, he would hit 11 years and the Jaguars would still take this category, so I’m going to include it to give credit to that. That kind of longevity in one of the “big four” coaching positions in the NFL (even if people consider special teams to be the “lesser” one) is an achievement worth recognizing.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 8: More NFL Top 100 Players Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Lions

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Jaguars

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Poor Detroit. There are only six teams with no players on the NFL Top 100, which is the only way the Lions have a hope of taking this category. Sadly, in a tie, these picks favor the home team, so the prediction goes to Jacksonville anyway.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Rivalry E: It's Just A Game

Prediction Method 9: Madden 21 Simulation Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

During the bye, Jeremy Reisman’s Lions managed a win against the New York Jets, just for funsies. Coming back to reality this week means...well, coming back to reality, as Detroit drops another game. The Lions lost to the Jags, 22-17.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 10: Tecmo Super Bowl Simulation Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

I don’t have a long writeup with screenshots for this one this week, but rest assured it was a pretty boring game. Punts were plentiful, as neither offense could get much going. The only interesting plays were a long evasive TD run from Kerryon Johnson (124 yards on the day), and then a Jaguars fumble on the kickoff that followed that was picked up for a nice run by Matt Prater of all people. Jacksonville had a chance for a long touchdown throw to win as the final seconds expired, but the pass was dropped by a wide open receiver.
Lions win, 20-14.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry F: Going To The Dogs

Prediction Method 11: Fen's Pick Record: (0-4) / 0.0%

Fen has really held the faith this year. She’s getting upset that her sister is kicking her butt so much, and she continues to pick who she really thinks she’s going to win, but...poor naive girl, she continues to really think that that’s going to be Detroit. That has been to her detriment so far, as she is the only method with an 0-4 record, but she keeps it up this week. Fen favors Detroit.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Prediction Method 12: Elena's Pick Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Elena got her first haircut! She also continues to cruise along, making picks willy-nilly and getting them right. This time around she opts for Jacksonville. Perhaps she’s starting to feel safe picking against Detroit?
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Rivalry G: This Was A Terrible Idea

Prediction Method 13: My Wife's Pick Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

My wife’s practicality and my mom’s misplaced faith in Detroit has led them back to matching records this week. Will that stick?
“Who’s your pick for Week 6?”
“Who’s playing?”
“The Lions are playing the Jaguars, in Jacksonville.”
“I guess it doesn’t really matter...I’m gonna say ‘not the Lions’. Just sad, really.”
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 14: My Mother’s Pick Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

“Who’s your pick for this week?”
“Detroit.”
“Okay, how come?”
“Because I don’t know who they’re playing and that’s all I could say. ...who are they playing?”
“The Jacksonville Jaguars.”
“Oh. Detroit. ‘Cause I don’t know anything about them anyway.”
Pick: Detroit Lions

Rivalry H: Money, Meet Mouth

Prediction Method 15: OddsShark Forecast Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

This is not the narrowest score differential that OddsShark has called for Detroit this year. They have the Jaguars winning fairly safely with a predicted score of 28.4 - 23.7.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 16: My Pick Record: (2-2) / 50.0%

This Lions team is fairly shite. Its defense has to be the worst I’ve seen since 2008. The offense is capable of moving the ball, but not well. I have little hope for even an 8-8 season. And yet...
And yet.
I can’t help but feel a little optimistic this week. I mean no offense to the Jaguars fans of the world, because we’re right there with you, but you’re pretty shite this year as well. Barring a tie, this week is going to see one of our teams getting its second win of the year, which doesn’t speak well of either of us. And when a matchup is between fairly comparable teams, that’s when you can look up to the sky just a little bit. If there’s a week that Detroit can manage a win, it’s a week when they’re against a team that’s struggling through 2020 just as much as Detroit is. As much as we all are.
Call me crazy, but I could see it happening.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Unrivaled Methods

Prediction Method 17: A Literal Coin Flip Record: (3-1) / 75.0%

Last week the coin picked New Orleans, and I expressed interest in the possibility that the sentient coin was deliberately picking incorrectly in order to get back to a 50/50 record.
Nnnnnnnope.
And now that we know it’s trying to pick for realsies, this week’s selection of Jacksonville should be a little scarier.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Method 18: Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid Record: (1-3) / 25.0%

IT’S A CAT FIGHT, AND WHO WINS BETWEEN A PROUD, MANED CHAMPION, AND A SPECKLED OVERGROWN HOUSECAT? THE KING OF THE ~~JUNGLE~~ SAVANNAH, THAT’S WHO!
IT DOESN’T MATTER HOW MANY MUSTACHES YOU PILE ONTO YOUR OFFENSE, IT’LL NEVER BE ENOUGH TO HOLD UP TO A PACK OF LIONS BITING YOUR LEGS OFF. I MEAN, LET’S BE REAL, HERE. JACKSONVILLE HAS AN OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR THAT WASN’T GOOD ENOUGH FOR WASHINGTON, AND THEIR RECORD IS ACTUALLY WORSE THAN OURS SO FAR THIS YEAR. THIS WEEK IS IN THE BAG. AND THE BAG HAS “DETROIT RULES, JACKSONVILLE DROOLS” WRITTEN ON THE SIDE. LIKE, PRINTED ON WITH A COOL LOGO. AND THERE ARE A BUNCH OF YOUR FAVORITE SNACKS IN THE BAG, TOO.
WE’VE GOT THIS.
Pick: Detroit Lions

Summary

Raw Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars (8 for Detroit Lions, 10 Jacksonville Jaguars) Raw Prediction record: (2-2) / 50.0%
Weighted Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars (4.0 for Detroit Lions, 7.0 for Jacksonville Jaguars) Weighted Prediction record: (2-2) / 50.0%
Huh. I feel a little bit worse about my pick, seeing both overall predictions disagreeing with me. Also, how long can this consensus last? Every week I’ve been saying, “We’re getting closer to the point when the weights matter and the two aggregate picks could disagree”, yet they still haven’t hit that actual point. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s very likely. When’s it gonna happen?
I also notice that I’m not talking about the actual game in this outro. That wasn’t deliberate. I guess I’m just not excited about Detroit Lions football right now. It isn’t just losing that causes that, either. I can get excited about a losing team. Things just feel kind of...lifeless. Don’t they? I’m interested to see the outcome of this game, but it seems like a more academic interest. A sterile, clinical interest. An, “Oh, that’s interesting” interest.
Dammit, I miss being excited. It’s only a matter of time before it comes back, but I’d like it to hurry, please.

Pac-12 Football with players as Pokemon

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