Back in 2000, I had the fortune of winning a lottery. It wasn't millions or anything, but I paid off my college loans, bought a house, and was able to be comfortable even through the recession in '08. When my niece was born three years later, I immediately loved her like my own, and decided she would have the same head start I did.
Now, my niece will be 18 next year, and I've saved enough for her college and for her to outright buy a decent sized house whenever she's ready. My living expenses have only been a few thousand a year, and my job pays very well, so I've saved most of my pay for this. This will hopefully allow for her to pay it forward to the next generation and always be comfortable.
The issue is my wife. We've been married 8 years, together 13. We've had multiple talks, and have agreed to keep our finances mostly separate, mainly because she had a financially abusive relationship before we got together. We have a shared bank account for our few expenses, vacations, and buying gifts for loved ones. Otherwise, savings, retirements, everything is separate, to the point where she didn't even want me to add her name to the house. Neither of us wanted kids, so that's not an issue. I'm happy with my niece, and my wife is happy with her 3 nephews.
However, one nephew is the same age as my niece, and is freaking out about what he's going to do since he didn't get a scholarship he was hoping for since he's graduating after next semester. My wife and I were discussing it, and I asked if she had saved up anything. She was surprised by this idea, and asked what I meant. I told her what I had saved for my niece, and now she's demanding I split it. There would still be enough for her to go to the college she wants, just not buy a house.
I'm not happy with this. My wife has also had very low living expenses, and hasn't saved anything for her side of the family. I'm happy to give the kid gifts, but I want my niece to never be scared of debt or being homeless. Am I the asshole for refusing?
Edit: Quick edit to clarify some things. My wife moved in with me after 2 years of dating. Ever since then, the only expenses she's had to pay are half of utilities, half of groceries, and half of our fun money. Both of us contribute about 10-15k a year to the household depending on what our vacationing plans are, and the rest of the money is ours to do with as we want. I know she had some debt when we first got together, but she finished paying that off years ago.
Other then those combined finances, no, we really don't talk about money. Her request to keep things separate, and so long as neither of us are gambling addicts, we didn't really need to know what the other does.
Finally, I really don't consider her nephews mine. I've met them all of 2 times, while I see my niece multiple times a week. The difference in living on different sides of the country, I guess, and my wife doesn't really talk to them on the phone. Her and her family text all the time, but since theyre not big phone callers and I haven't been added to the group chat, I'm ok with not having a relationship with them. My wife has, before, expressed liking the fact that I'm not close with her family, since her abusive ex was friends with a lot of them and it was hard to separate her life from him once they broke up. So these people are pretty much strangers, so I don't consider them family, but my wife's family.

Lebron James and Michael Jordan are the two greatest basketball players of all time in most people’s eyes. Instead of looking at their arguments for being the goat and comparing their legacies, I decided to compare their defense, something they both have been elite at.
In order to compare the 2 defenders, I watched a lot of historic films, compiled evidence and created their defensive profiles, I focused on every aspect of defense, what they were good at it, bad at, how they helped their teams, their defensive prime and careers, etc. I don’t use any accolades or awards, this is mostly based on re-watching countless hours of games and looking at historic film and paying some attention to advanced stats to contextualize the information. I don’t pay as much attention to advanced stats as I recognize they’re not perfect, they do give a fair idea and help in providing substance.
I watched regular season games to look at defensive fundamentals, tendencies, how frequently they make mistakes, what defensive skills they possess. And I used playoff games to track their one on one match ups when they guard stars like Kevin Durant, Magic Johnson, Tony Parker, Isiah Thomas, etc. I also paid attention to how many ‘good’ or ‘bad’ rotations they made, how much rim protection they offer, how many gambles, etc.
So here are the two players:

LEBRON JAMES

Lebron James is a 6’9, 250lb freak of nature, who is considered one of the most athletic basketball players in the history of the game. He has a 7’0 ft wingspan and he has a hand-span of 9.25 inches which is actually below average for his height. Really quick, really agile for his height, physically dominant and insanely powerful. Lebron has a 44 inch vertical and he is quick off the floor. A perfect mix of speed and strength.

Defensive Profile

Coming into the league as an 18 year old, Lebron was this super athletic raw player who needed time to develop into something positive on the defensive end. From 2003/04 to 2007/08 he was a slightly above average defender who had a lot of highlight plays but a lot of breakdowns too. His first major leap to being an elite defender was in 2008/09, after 5 years in the league, Lebron had become an excellent defender.
Starting things off with his man defense, Lebron for the most part of his career was a really good one on one defender, often guarding the best guard or wing on the opposing team. His athleticism and combination of lateral quickness and strength help him keep offensive players in front of him. He is really good at limiting drives to the basket and making the offensive players take tougher jump shots, something he wants them to do. Early on in his career he didn’t have the best footwork, this affected his ability to defend in space and often led to easy baskets. Over the years his footwork improved significantly and he became a better individual defender.
Lebron guards Durant, uses his body to stop the drive, good use of hands to make KD lose the ball and contests well for an airball
Lebron guards Joe Johnson 1v1. Does a great job of keeping him in front uses his size to make it a difficult shot and then blocks the shot.
It’s really hard to beat a prime Lebron off the dribble, his 6’9 frame and explosiveness makes it difficult for anyone going against him. Lebron was one of the better man to man defenders in his prime, however he wasn’t at an all time level.
Lebron did get beat a few times too often for me to call him an all time one on one defender. Elite ball handlers and quick guys would blow past him once in a while. For the most part he shifted his feet well, but he did have errors on a more consistent basis than Michael Jordan for example.
He got beat off the dribble a fair few times by elite ball handlers, a touch bit slower at sticking with them. He’s got good footwork, not great. He shifts his feet well but it’s not an uncommon thing to see Lebron get off the dribble at times.
Here Paul George beats him off the dribble.
Another element of Lebron’s defense is his recoveries, if he gets beaten he often tries to erase shots from the back. “Blocked by James” haunts a lot of players and fans. His speed, leaping ability and IQ make it easy for him to run back and contest or block shots from the ball handler.
Lebron’s post defense is also great. He has the strength to bang down low, can contain players in the mid post and force and contest mid range shots.
Lebron uses his strength effectively to cut out Zion in the post
Lebron is guarding Kevin Durant here. First he fronts the post, great ball denial. Then he uses his strength to keep KD in that spot, doesn't bite on the pump fake, contests the shot well to force a miss.
When guarding bigger players like centers or power forwards, he usually fronts the post and is great at ball denial. He usually tries to swipe down at the ball when in the post.
He isn’t able to defend deep post positioned players though, once he gives up deeper post position it’s hard for him to alter the shot, often leading to an easy shot at the basket.
Lebron wasn’t great at navigating screens for the first half of his career, just a tendency where he had trouble moving his body around and over screens effectively. Later in his career he improved a lot and is good at staying with his man when other players are involved.
Lebron’s man defense is great, but not all time. What puts his defense at an all time level is his off ball and team defense. Lebron in his defensive prime was a master at reading and breaking up plays, making rotations. He is super active on the court, when locked in (something I’m going to touch on later) his ability to understand other team’s offenses and make sharp rotations, move around the court, offer rim protection and perimeter defense is super valuable.
This is a good example of his rotations. He helps off of his defense when the pass is made and AD rolls to the basket. Provides great rim protection is forces a miss from an all time finisher
Lebron helps off the point guard when Dwight gets the ball, he makes a great play by blocking the shot right at the rim
Lebron comes in from the weakside to deny Dwight Howard.
Lebron’s off ball and team defense is easily his best defensive attribute and that’s where a large amount of his defensive impact comes from. Often Lebron played the free safety role, helping off of his matchup to slide over to the roll man, or protect the rim or attempt a steal in the passing lane.
This iconic play is a great example of Lebron's ability. His rotation is on time and he offers great rim resistance here. He made these type of plays often in his prime
Lebron is extremely active on the defensive end, switching through multiple positions, rotating over to stop the rim roller, closing out shooters all on the same play.
His playmaking and vision help him in reading plays, often anticipating which pass is going to be made ahead of time. He is amazing at knowing the ball handlers passes making rotations ahead of time often breaking up plays. Rotating over to players, helping and getting blocks from the weak side, disrupting passing lanes, Lebron is great at all of these components. He’s at the right place at the right time and adds a lot of value to his team’s defense. The Miami Heat had a hard hedging defensive scheme due to Lebron’s ability to play the free safety role. Helping when the roller got the ball on a pick and roll, coming over to stop a driver, closing out a shooter on the opposite side of the court, Peak defensive Lebron did it all.
Lebron reads the ball handlers pass way ahead of time and gets the steal. Fantastic anticipation, his all time vision helps him here
His vision here too helps him a lot. Sees the pass ahead of time and makes a fantastic read.
Lebron's lightning quick reaction and anticipation
Lebron is one of the very best in NBA history at playing off ball defense, he has value as a rim protector too. In Miami he played closer to the basket at the power forward position a fair bit, his ability to influence shots at the basket was really helpful in the “small ball” lineups they played.
Another big reason for Lebron being an all time defender is his versatility. Lebron can guard 1-4. I wouldn’t say it’s fair to say that he can guard 1-5, but he can sure switch 1-5. You’d often see him be comfortable at handling all positions. Lebron has been consistently guarding point guards through power forwards in his career and when he switches on centers, it’s not a mismatch most of the time.
Mostly in the playoffs, having Lebron during 2009-13 meant you can have him guard the best opposing perimeter threat. He’s spent time on nearly every player, he guarded Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard in the 2013 finals. He’s spent time on Derrick Rose and David West while being the primary defender on Kevin Durant.
In a nutshell, Lebron in his prime can guard points, shooting guards, small forwards very comfortably. Against average power forwards he does a great job relative to other players. He can contain non scoring centers, against better bigs he may make it harder for them to score. Saying he would completely stop them is a stretch though. I absolutely don’t mind Lebron guarding 1-5 for stretches, but guarding them throughout the game (1s and 5s) is something I’m not too comfortable with.
Here he is switched onto Jokic and uses his strength well. He contests into a miss and secures the rebound.
This versatility allowed the heat to deploy several schemes and make use of them effectively. Lebron is one of the few players in history to effectively be able to switch through all positions.
He does struggle at times against dominant post scorers, at times the physicality is overwhelming even for him. In his prime he did a really good job vs most shifty guards, often staying with them and sliding his feet well. Guarding wings was no problem for him either.
Lebron’s weakside shot blocking ability also helps in him playing different off ball roles. He has value as a rim protector, often helping alter shots at the basket.
He’s great at reading passing lanes, posting healthy steal and deflection numbers. His length and ability to read plays make him effective when stealing passes.
Lebron Steal Rate Percentile
Lebron doesn’t make a lot of errors in off ball situations, though he has some minor flaws. Lebron’s closeouts at times are sloppy, not the best footwork and getting beat by subtle fakes a fair few times. He misses out on a few rotations which are extremely close to the basket, being marginally late or not realizing he could make the play.
Lebron’s transition defense has been up and down throughout his career. In his prime it was really good, he was a great transition defender. In the later end of his career, the effort reduced and his ability to track back and impact plays wasn't as common. Lebron’s speed and size make him a really effective transition defender, closing out, swatting shots or even simply slowing down attacks.
Lebron is an elite rebounder for his position and was great at not fouling.
Another important element of Lebron’s defense is his really high defensive IQ. Lebron is a walking scouting report, with so much attention to detail and time spent studying the sport he basically knows players, their tendencies, their shooting splits on different areas of the court. The guy is simply a genius. Super high IQ defender who knows when to help off of his man, knows which shooters aren’t good ball handlers; makes them uncomfortable, etc.
Heck he knows every play of other teams too, the guy is a walking playbook too. His IQ on that side of the court is so helpful, knowing where to be, when to be, what play is being run, how to play a man, this guy is prepared for basically everything.

Defensive Career

Lebron dPIPM
Lebron rDRTG
Lebron James has had an eventful defensive career. During 2003-07 he wasn’t a super impactful nor great defender. Around 2008 is where he started making greater strides and 2009 is the first season where his defensive potential was realized. His on ball defense was never great pre 2009 and off ball he wasn’t super aware. During 2009 he improved in all aspects. This was around his peak athleticism too. He became more versatile, a much better on ball defender and most importantly a smarter defender. After he went to Miami, he became an ever better defender. At this stage of his life he was at his athletic peak, added more weight to his frame and as explosive as ever. His crazy athleticism along with super high IQ made him one of the best defenders in the league. He was super versatile and constantly engaged. Around 2014 is the time his effort dropped a bit. He was still a great defender, his consistency was slightly lower. When he went back to Cleavland, his athleticism had declined a touch bit. Mainly his on ball defense took a slight hit due to slower feet and his off ball defense took a slight hit due to slower reactions. In 2017 he probably reached the defensive low in his career after the first major improvement in 2009. His effort greatly reduced and his foot speed was slower. His athleticism had faded a bit too. 2017-19, Lebron wasn’t a good defender by his standards. All aspects of his defensive game took a hit to some extent. A lot of this was mainly due to him “coasting” on defense or lack of effort. He got beat more often off the dribble, he wasn’t making rotations as frequently and proficiently, he struggled with shifty guards and players in general. In 2020, he is back to being a great defender. He is very clearly not in his defensive prime but added effort along with unparalleled iq makes him a really valuable defender.
To sum his defensive career up, I think 2009-13 was his defensive prime, this is the time he was one of the greatest and most impactful wing defenders of all time. Before that period, his fundamentals, IQ and actual ability wasn’t that high and after that period his effort and athleticism had decreased. More often than not, Lebron’s defense in the postseason becomes better than his defense in the regular season, showing he clearly saves himself for when it matters most.

MICHAEL JORDAN

Michael Jordan was a 6’6, 195-215lb freak of nature. Just like Lebron he is considered one of the most athletic players ever too. MJ has a 6’11 wingspan and a ridiculous 9.75 hand length, crazy for a 6’6 player. He also has a 11.5 handspan, again ridiculous. One of the quickest reaction times and agility in nba history, Michael was really fast both in short and long distance runs. He has a crazy 48 inch vertical, one of the best ever.

Defensive Profile

Michael Jordan was a super energetic high risk high reward defender for the most part. One of the most athletic players of all time, he had all the tools to be an elite defender. In his younger days, he wasn’t the smartest or most polished defender, he was still a positive on that end though. As the years went on he developed into being an elite defender with his athleticism, reactions, energy and technical ability. He made the leap from being an ok defender to good one around 1987 and became elite in 88.
In his prime, one of the best components of his defense was his man to man defense and ability to guard skilled ball handlers. His speed, reaction time and footwork made him a really effective defender when guarding isolation possessions. Often guarding the best perimeter player on the opposing team for the first half of his career, Michael had the ability to contain players, stay in front of his man and be a superb point of attack defender.
He put his 6’6 frame to the max using every bit of his athleticism to stop penetrators, he was so quick when moving, always keeping offensive players in front of him. On the ball, he had great fundamentals; moved in his stance really well, had great footwork and his massive hands helped in navigating players. The combination of fundamentals and supreme athleticism made Jordan really difficult to beat off the dribble. He was one of the best ever at guarding players one on one.
Michael’s error rate on one on one defensive sequences was lower than Lebron, he got blown by less and got beat less. Younger Michael did have problems with this element, often getting beat at a higher rate. Before his 88 season this was a problem.
During 1988 and onwards his ability to slow done drives was amazing, often locking up players. He was so quick to spots and he used his chest to cut out a lot of drives. Anticipating where his man would go and reacting before the move was even made. 1988-1993 he often took on the best guard, great at containing them and forcing higher turnovers and lower shooting percentages.
His hands were really active, one of the biggest hands in NBA history. He troubled ball handlers constantly by getting under them, great stance and using his hands to disrupt their dribble. This generated a lot of steals with him often swiping at the ball. He was so effective at this, completely shutting down players at times, getting the ball in his hands like they were gloves and killing their momentum. He was also great at contesting shots with his massive wingspan and reaction time.
His ability to remove players from games was valuable, especially in the playoffs.
Jordan’s post defense wasn’t great for the most part. 1984-90 Jordan weighed around 195-200 pounds, he wasn’t the strongest. He struggled at times with good post players and would often try and snipe the post, a risky strategy which didn’t always pay off. Gradually as he got stronger he also got smarter, not taking as many risks and using his body more effectively. Overall Jordan’s post defense was good and didn’t hurt his team that much.
MJ sniping the post and getting the steal. Something he did fairly often
In the second half of his career, he added more strength and lost some speed, he became smarter, less risk taking defender and used his strength really effectively. During the second three-peat he was slower than before and his defensive errors on ball increased, he got blown by more. Although he didn’t bleed that much value, still a great defender
Moving onto his off ball defense, Michael Jordan is one of the greatest in passing lanes, his anticipation, hands and aggressive style means he has few of the greatest steal numbers of all time. A master at creating havoc in the passing lanes, he is 3rd all time in total steals, 18th in steal percentage and 4th in steals per game. His aggression in passing lanes was great, although again a high risk high reward strategy. He had one of the best reaction time in NBA history, lightning quick reflexes and extreme speed made him great in rotations.
Good subtle double by MJ and his active hands lead to the steal. Great at getting steals from the passing lanes.
Michael tracks the shooter well and gets the steal.
He was phenomenal at denying passes, denying and stealing a post entry, not allowing post entries when guarding the ball handler, fighting over cross screens and stealing passes, Jordan had a lot of value on creating turnovers.
With all these positives comes the negative, Michael was a big gambler (on the court obviously), he went for steals a touch bit too often. At times his mistakes led to easy baskets, although his error rate wasn’t that high. As he matured as a player, he took less risks, went for less steals and played a more conservative (a good thing) style of defense.
Michael attempts the steal but fails. This leads to open dunk. His high risk high reward playstyle would lead to these types of breakdowns at times.
He was a really good team defender too, making accurate reads and timely rotations at a high rate. Michael consistently helped off of his man to provide help defense, his quickness and activity rate made him a really good help defender. He was a great weakside shot blocker, he was really good at helping from the weak side in general often leading to steals or blocks.
Michael rotates over from the weakside to swat the shot
His reads were accurate, although he was a little too aggressive at times, this high risk high reward strategy led to over helping at times. An evident tendency of Jordan was his super aggressive style of defense for the first 9 years of his career. Another minor flaw was he didn’t offer a lot of resistance at the basket when rotating over. Despite having a crazy vertical leap, MJ’s rim protection wasn’t super valuable, he did make the right rotations but his contests weren’t necessarily shot altering. Younger Jordan didn’t have the mass to offer good protection, older Jordan didn’t have the vertical. He wasn’t the strongest and rim rollers could easily finish over him. He shys away from contact at the rim and wasn’t reliable in these situations.
Here his overhelping leads to the open shot.
Relatively early into his career and in the second three-peat, the number of good rotations he made were lesser than his prime. It was clear when he was taking the gas off and conserving his energy. Around 87-92, Michael’s activity rate was phenomenally high, both on the ball and off the ball.
Michael’s off ball activity allowed Chicago to have one of the most aggressive perimeter defenses in NBA history. Since the bulls didn’t have great rim protection, they built their scheme around Michael, Scottie and a suffocating perimeter defense. Due to their point of attack defense, aggressive helping and stealing passing lanes, the bulls had a defensive dynasty for almost a decade.
Jordan helps off his man and gets the steal. Great timing and help defense
Michael was also a versatile defender who could guard point guards, shooting guards and small forwards. His ability to guard and switch 1-3 to near perfection was really valuable to his overall impact. Throughout his career he’s guarded these positions and he’s done it really well, he’s quick enough for points and big enough for small forwards. There’s not much of a sample size where he can guard power forwards or centers. Basically you would not trust him to switch onto PFs or centers without it being a mismatch. He’s not big enough to alter their shots or make it tougher for them. He never really needed to guard 4s and 5s but switching on bigger players wasn’t ideal.
He’s mostly spent time on guards although he is able to guard SFs with no problem. In his career he matched up with elite offensive players in Magic Johnson, Clyde Drexler, Reggie Miller, Isiah Thomas and more. This meant the bulls could almost take a player out of the game at times, Michael’s defense was so pest like he troubled ball handlers like no other.
Michel’s steal and block numbers for a guard are insane.
There's only been 13 players in NBA history to have 150+ steals and a 100+ blocks in a single season. Only 2 are guards. There's only been 4 total seasons with 200+ steals and 100+ blocks, Michael did it twice. The red points are the 86-87 and 87-88 Jordan seasons.
Talking about a trend in all of his defensive skills, his high risk high reward playstyle. Michael’s defensive IQ wasn’t amazing a lot of times, especially when talking about unforced errors. He didn’t make that many one on one errors, missed rotations due to his inability; it was rather due to going for steals or being a little too aggressive. This isn’t to say he wasn’t a smart defender, it’s just about losing some value due to avoidable errors.
His transition defense was a bit streaky, he wasn’t super aware early on and later on his effort was reduced. In his prime he was a really effective transition defender, slowing down fastbreaks, switching onto whoever he wanted to.
He was also an elite rebounder for guards. His foul rate was fairly high for his position throughout his career.

Defensive Career

Michael Jordan dPIPM
Michael Jordan rDRTG
With all the tools to be a really good defender, Michael entered the league as a raw defender. He was a positive around 84-86 but not a good defender. Around 87, before his dpoy campaign he improved a lot in all departments of defense. Became smarter, increased effort, much better concentration, footwork and movement had improved. His defensive prime and where he truly realized was 1988-92, at this point of time he’d solidified himself as one of the best defensive guards in the league, in fact defenders in general. Michael was one of the best defenders ever for this prime, an all time one on one defender and an elite team defender. He was still making his risky plays but he was smarter. He was about 205lb during this stretch, phenomenal athleticism and on a defensive juggernaut. In 93 his defense had dipped a bit, slightly reduced effort and a bit of a dip in athleticism. He made less good rotations, his man defense was still great and he was still as versatile. After he came back from retirement, he had lost more athleticism, was slower footed and less active in passing lanes. In 95-96 and 96-97 he became one of the best guard defenders in the league again. He was much smarter and had developed a great defensive IQ by this time. His rotation activity wasn’t as frequent but it was more controlled and really valuable. In 98 he wasn't the same athletic freak he once was, he wasn’t guarding quicker guards as frequently as it wasn’t the best matchup. He was much slower relative to young Jordan, but during 96-98 he was even stronger than before. His post defense improved and he was great at using his chest to stop players. He was still a good defender but clearly not the same. In his wizards days, Jordan was a negative defender, obviously at the age of 38 and 39 it’s hard to be a good one.
Overall he had a great dominant defensive career, with him reaching his apex around 88-92. He was an all league level defender throughout 87-97 (missing 2 years:-94&95) and he was consistently a positive on that end up till his Washington days. He became a smarter defender in the second half of his career and he was way more athletic in the first half. Consistently being an all time man defender and great team defender, Michael also had a really high motor. Just like Lebron his defense in the postseason became even better.

Final Comparison

So after watching the film, looking at the data available, putting their defense into context, who do I think was the better or more impactful defender?
The best way to put this is I think Lebron James had the better defensive prime (08-13) and Michael Jordan had the better defensive career. I think Lebron’s prime defense is more impactful and adds more value to his team compared to Michael’s. That added off ball defense and versatility gives him a slight edge over Jordan. Michael Jordan has the better defensive career, he was as valuable to more valuable for a longer period of time. I have 08-13 Lebron beating 88-92 Michael by a hair, his combination of team and isolation defense along with amazing versatility added a lot of value to his team. Both are all time defenders, especially in their primes. Jordan’s defensive consistency stayed up till later in his career, Lebron declined earlier. Both these greats turn it up in the playoffs, predictably their defense gets better when the stakes are higher. Both of the players were a part of great league defenses and clearly had an all time impact.

I will be going through each and every feasible option of manager, citing their style, personality, history and strengths/weakness. I will also be looking at their respective situations in determining the likelihood of acquiring them.

Where We Are and What We Need

The current situation Madrid finds itself with is more complicated given the pandemic, financially the club has been said to have no money to spend next summer, but their is conflicting reports suggesting we could very well potentially spend for the right targets in the right situation. However, free signings seem to still be plausible with the strong Alaba links. There is also returning loan players or players who've been given limited chances, who can help fill needed roles, or players from Castilla's.
Currently we have players ranging in all different kinds of styles, roles, positions, abilities and personalities. This allows for a lot of tactical maneuverability, meaning we have a lot of the personnel needed to play any style realistically without a need for a prolonged managerial transition. With that though, we have a lot of players ranging in prestige and mentality, some are at the top, whilst others are projects expected to grow into that level. This means despite a large amount of youth, the manager still needs prestige and a reputation high enough to garner respect and command a dressing room.
The expectations for Madrid will most likely not change, and patience will depend on the manager (reputation as a playemanager, their vision and/or how the relationship is with the board/Perez). Despite being in a "transition period" expectations for Madrid wont change, its the curse of being the most successful team in the world. The manager will be expected to get results, winning at least one major trophy or competing highly in most competitions. With that we need a manager who can win now but also help to build the team for themselves or others in the future for much more success.
Its unclear when Zidane will be sacked, most reports suggest hell last until the end of the season, others state he has until we get knocked out of all major coemptions, in the worst case the team is in a bad position and needs a change to save next season on top of this season, a lot of fans want him gone now. With unclarity on Zidane's timetable, availability of managers also change. Some are available now but could be gone soon whilst others are more available at the end of the campaign.
With the large amount of youth we need a manager who can successfully build them into great players, and turning some into Madrid class. The manager needs to also combine youth with experience effectively. in order to continue competing.
Finally, the manager needs to instill confidence in fans. A brand of football that can be entertaining, a personality that makes fans root for them, and little-to-no drama.

Options

In this list we'll just be giving names of all managers of the necessary level or potentially step up to that level, managers who miss out of the next process will be crossed off, those managers miss out due to clashes with club/fans, financially unfeasible in relation to quality, and no interest from managers. It should be noted this includes managers available now or in the summer, as some aren't available now but are more so in the summer. Manager = unattainable.

Jürgen Klopp	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer	Brendan Rodgers	Carlo Ancelotti
José Mourinho	Ralph Hassenhutl	Frank Lampard	Mikel Arteta
Marcelo Bielsa	Pep Guardiola	Nuno Espirito Santos	Diego Simione
Ronald Koeman	Julen Lopetegui	Unai Emery	Imanol Alguacil
Hans-Dieter Flick	Julian Nagelsmann	Peter Bosz	Marco Rose
Adi Hütter	Stefano Pioli	Antonio Conte	Gennaro Gattuso
Paulo Fonseca	Gian Piero Gasperini	Simone Inzaghi	Andrea Pirlo
Mauricio Pochettino	Christophe Galtier	Ernesto Valverde	Quique Setien
Thomas Tuchel	Massimiliano Allegri	Maurizio Sarri	Luciano Spalletti
Guti	Raul	Marcelo Gallardo	Leonardo Jardim
Marcelino García Toral	Roberto Martinez	Joachim Low	Luis Enrique
Roberto Mancini	Frank de Boer	Erik Ten Hag	Gareth Southgate
Niko Kovac	Ryan Giggs	Lucien Frave	Santiago Solari
Ralf Rangnick

Witling Down the Options

Next the names I suggest wont be continuing because of their own respective falters being too big of a risk to consider.
Unai Emery - Villarreal 2023
Despite Emery's clear issues he's still a top manager, however his inability to progress past the Quarter Finals with a stacked PSG team as well as the historic defeat to Barcelona, on top of his unimpressive time at Arsenal shows he need to do well with Villarreal for a while before its a gamble worth taking.
Marcelo Bielsa - Leeds 2021
Bielsa is a manager many managers look up to, his current Leeds team is one of the most entraining in the world. However his style is known to take a while to implement, often it hasn't worked in the past. Despite his long managerial history he's not got much to show in terms of success. Though he might be a fun manager it seems like too big of a gamble, he needs to show more longevity and/or success if he is to come into a top-top team.
Imanol Alguacil - Real Sociedad 2023
Imanol has taken Sociedad to a level expectant of their history and personally, he has them playing fun football mostly. Along with his knowledge of the league and Nationality on top of other things he'd be perfect if only he had the experience. Coaching only around 100 matches of top flight football isn't quite enough unless you did something truly unbelievable. He's a manager to definitely keep an eye on, however its not the right time for him.
Peter Bosz - Bayer Leverkusen 2022
Peter Bosz is definitely someone who is making a name for himself, he has Leverkusen 3rd in the table and playing some attacking football. Very reminiscent of his time at Ajax, when he was truly a name to talk about. However that time at Dortmund can't be forgotten so quickly, 2 cumulative good seasons isn't enough. But he is someone to keep an eye on.
Adi Hutter - Frankfurt 2023
Hutter has been making waves in Frankfurt, having been brought in from a very successful time at Young Boys he's done very well in the last 2.5 years. He's shown to get the best out of a competent strike force, specifically Jovic. However like most managers on this list he isn't quite there yet, but definitely one to watch.
Christophe Galtier - Lille 2021
What more can you say, he was chosen by Luis Campos (the man who constructed Lille's transfers) to take helm and lead them into a very good few seasons. Mixing youth and experience, playing a complete style. He garnered a lot of experience in his career, however he needs another good stepping stone before going to a top-top club. If he carries on doing well at Lille or another club, definitely bring him aboard.
Luciano Spalletti - FREE
Luciano has a very large CV, managing a lot of clubs, but specifically Roma and Inter. However his style isn't that great, specifically at Inter he made them play very boring and uneventful football. His personality is a mix bag. Though he did well at Roma. He's been out of a job since the end of the 2018/19 season, given that it doesn't seem wise to go for him. maybe he can turn things around but its uncertain.
Leonardo Jardim - FREE
His Monaco side was the epidemy of exciting, it was youthful, creative, well balanced, and punched all the way to very high heights. However when the selling spree occurred Jardim couldn't cope, and even after returning in the same season he couldn't reignite the fire once seen. Having been out of a job over a year he hasn't recaptured the quality needed to gamble on him.
Roberto Mancini - Italy NT 2022
Mancini has one of the largest CV's out of all the coaches, having managed clubs like Inter, City and Lazio since the early 2000s. However its been clear his coaching has been stagnating and declining, the move to Italy seemed like it could rejuvenate him, however though he's done better then the others he hasn't done quite enough to warrant his name being considered, could very well change in the future.
Niko Kovac - Monaco 2023
After having a great time at Frankfurt he went to Bayern and did very poorly, even more so in retrospect when Flick came in and managed to turn what seemed to be a trophyless season into another historic treble winning season. After his appointment to Monaco he's been helping to take them back to the top. His reputation after Bayern has been very much hurt, he clearly wasn't at that level but similar to others, maybe he can in time. As of now though he's not good enough.
Ryan Giggs - Wales NT 2022
Giggs has a very large reputation thanks to his playing career, however he's not done enough as a manager to warrant an opportunity. if this was MU he'd probably move up the list given his legend status, but in Madrid it cant be said he should.
Lucien Frave - FREE
Played attractive football at times, and was very highly considered at points in his career, however getting sacked by Dortmund rightfully so definitely warrants him getting punted off the list. Potentially can be a very good coach, but as of now, definitely not.
Gareth Southgate - England NT 2022
Took England very far, though not super attractive football, he did very well with Enlgand. However language barrier could be an issue along with other things. He doesn't seem like the right fit at all for Madrid, but definitely is garnering a big reputation.
Frank Lampard - FREE
Derby to Chelsea seemed to be too big of a step up, so Chelsea to Madrid seems unfathomable. Definitely a promising manager however his issues with the board, media and players seems too toxic in-it-of-itself to consider him. He needs a lot more time to build experience.
Paulo Fonseca - Roma 2022
A promising manager with a lot of experience, he's lacking the necessary pop with Roma to consider him any further, though he's doing well with them, in comparison to managers before him, he's not taking them much if any higher. He's just a caliber below at the moment.
Roberto Martinez - Belgium NT 2022
A manager with a less then impressive club CV, and playing CV in relation to Madrid. He certainly has done very well with Belgium, however he hasn't done enough yet. The big links to Barcelona definitely did his reputation very well however he needs to do more with this quality Belgium team if he's to be considered more.

Shortlisted Options

We'll be looking at each candidate in this section, breaking them down, before moving onto the next section where we'll place them numerically.

Jürgen Klopp	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer	Ralph Hassenhutl	Erik Ten Hag
Nuno Espirito Santos	Julian Nagelsmann	Hans-Dieter Flick	Antonio Conte
Marco Rose	Gennaro Gattuso	Simone Inzaghi	Joachim Low
Gian Piero Gasperini	Massimiliano Allegri	Maurizio Sarri	Marcelo Gallardo
Guti	Raul

Jurgen Klopp - Liverpool 2024
Probably everyone's most ideal candidate, Jurgen Klopp has been making waves in football for many years now, as of now he's considered one of the top 3 managers in the world. With about 20 years of top flight coaching experience he makes up for his downfall in lack of player reputation. His 4231/433 approach has garnered praise for his use of gegenpressing, in recent times he's made very large adaptations that's seen his side use possession based football a lot more. This has seen Klopp's team become a very complete side, able to attack, defend and control games. He's excellently balanced youth, world class players and turning players into class/world class. His trophy cabinet, along with how he handles big games is very impressive.
His personality gets fans and the board on his side, whilst also having that egotistical approach that makes you a winner. His locker-room is very warming and their is very few times controversy. At 53 he's at a good age, not too young or old.
His biggest complaints could come from his style taking a bit too long to implement, with his reputation he will be awarded patience but its unclear whether it will be enough or if he can handle it. There's also the issue with his contract, it could cost Madrid a lot to bring him in, it seems very clear he wont move in the winter but its unclear if he'd even want a move in the summer. Finally the language barrier could pose a problem, for himself and his staff.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Manchester United 2022
Ole is a name many will question, and rightfully so. He doesn't have the managerial pedigree yet, though he does have a large reputation as a player, its unclear if that could translate to Madrid.
However he's certainly an interesting option. His style of play is focused primarily on counterattacking, however he is very adaptable formation wise. Usually he has done well to pick up points against bigger opposition. He seems like a coach who can win something with a team. He does well to implement youth, focusing on local talents and club prospects, but can also use the quality in a team. He's a manager whose been in high pressure situations before and has handled them well, he's taken MU to the top of the table this season, fighting for the league.
At 47 he's at a good age. However language could be an issue on top of adapting to the league, as he's never been in that process before to such extremes.
Ralph Hassenhutl - Southampton 2024
Another questionable name on the shortlist, he's certainly a character. He's known to be a passionate manager, oozing such emotion and energy onto his players and fans. His style is very much about Gegenpressing, press hard and strong, win the ball, and look to exploit the opponents. Switching between a 4222/442 and a 352.
Whilst he doesn't have to most Impressive current job, managing a midtable Prem team, he has somewhat of an interesting CV. Having managed Leipzig to a second place in their first to flight season, but a poor 6th placed finish and a bad run in the UCL/Europa League left him getting the sack.
The 53 y/o is doing very well with the Saints, having them play attractive football. He's done well to get players into great form, implement youth, however its unclear how he'd handle star talent. His biggest issues come from language, contract, and maybe not being at the level needed quite yet.
Erik Ten Hag - Ajax 2022
Someone who doesn't quite have a large playing reputation for Madrid's standards, but his managerial CV potentially makes up for that. Erik Ten Hag has been impressing at Ajax with the way he's been able to successfully integrate youth players and get the best out of older players. He has around 5 years of managerial experience at a professional level, whilst also managing Bayern's B team and being assistant coach for 3 seasons prior.
His ajax team were well known as they beat Madrid a few years ago on there way down multiple successful clashes in the UCL. There possession based approach with emphasis on counter pressing, really epitomized attractive football at a possession based level, the constant fluid movements make it not very tiki taka like but more modern. He likes a 4231/433, with all the players, especially fullbacks having good technical agility.
His shortcomings are clear though, the massive differences between Eredivise and La Liga could see him have very Bosz level of issues. His approach could see issues Zidane has faced as their styles of play are somewhat similar. At 50 he's at a peak managerial age, whilst taking him might be a gamble, given the quality of youth, it could be worth it. Adaptation could be a problem.
Nuno Espirito Santos - Wolves 2023
A manager whose been earning a lot of attention the last few years, Nuno is an interesting case. He doesn't have an amazing playing career but more Journeymen which bodes well for his adaptation. He also has a large amount of experience having coached in Portugal, Spain and now in England, so he knows the league and speaks the language. He has a very likable personality that fans get behind and appreciate.
He is very adaptable with his style, he can play counterattacking football , or utilize possession. It all depends on the team he's coaching. At Porto he had a tough time breaking down opponents in a low block but adapted pretty well to it in time. He's against fruitless possession and wants intense creativity. He's versatile in formation, playing a 343,442,433 and so on.
His biggest problems come from his lack of experience at a top team, when he has managed a top team he's run into issues. His close connections with Jorge Mendes could also spout issues in acquiring him. At 46 y/o he's entering the perfect age range for a manager. He might not have the experience yet to warrant him taking over but he deserves to be on the shortlist of options.
Julien Nagelsmann - RB Leipzig 2023
A potential future managerial icon, Nagelsmann represents the next generation of German coaches. His experience as a manager is pretty decent, having managed top flight football for about 5 years now. He took a Hoffienheim team struggling to stay up, and turned them into a top 4 team in no time. He is able to use youth well on top of get the best out of middling players. At Leipzig not only did is he challenging Bayern for the league but he's continued to turn Leipzig into a competitive European team. Getting them into the Semi's last season in the UCL and this season beating MU to progress into the knockout stages.
He's very similar to Klopp, very warm personality but can have fire in his sole, a will to win. His style is similar to Klopp's football now, high pressing, quick vertical passes, counterattacking and using smart possession. He's adapted between a 4222, 343, 352, 4231, and 433. Of all the candidates he's shown to have one of the highest ceilings.
His major faults come with his age, at 33 y/o he's had issues keeping a locker room respecting of him in the past. At Leipzig with all the players being younger then him its not an issue, but cant be said for Madrid. His lack of player reputation means he has to have a high managerial reputation, as of now its gaining a lot of momentum but it cant be said its quite there yet. He's yet to manage truly world class players who are winners yet, so its unclear how he'll handle that situation. Language and league adaptation could be an issue as well.
Hans-Dieter Flick - Bayern 2023
A manager not many people heard of until he won the treble, Flick has blown up very quickly in the world of football. Whilst as a player he has some reputation, his managerial experience is very large. Having worked in the Bundesliga for a while, carrying different roles at certain club, he really made an impact as key figure in the German NT staff. Once he got his chance for Bayern he took it in stride.
Kovac had said Bayern were unable to press and the team looked like it wasn't going to win anything. Flick came in, instilled a system based on pressing, possession, attacking, again very similar to Nagelsmann and Klopp. He then was able to have an historic treble winning season. A lot of comparisons to Heynckes, a former Madrid manager who also won the treble with Bayern. The formation usually used is a 4231. He was able to get unbelievable production out of the team, truly making it one of the best teams in Europe if not the best. He mixes star talent, with youth, and is also able to get a lot out of others.
Biggest weakness come in the form of direct club managerial experience, he's blown up quite a lot, Bayern have started to pick up problems here and there and the question is can he handle the pressure of that situation and come out on top. Its also unclear whether he'd want to come to Madrid, as his Bayern career is just a little over a year old. Finally language and league adaptation could be a problem. At 55 y/o he's still at a good age.
Antonio Conte - Inter Milan 2022
A very questionable figure, Conte is probably the coach who carries the most baggage. However his CV cant be ignored, good playing reputation that's incredibly bolstered by a long fruitful managerial career. He's shown he can adapt to leagues and be very successful.
His style focuses on counter attacking, pressing very reluctantly, playing his favored 352 but able to adapt to a 343 if needed. He's one of the most consistently successful managers on this list. And at 51 y/o he's at a great age.
His downfalls make him a questionable option however, though he has cup and league success, he's been very unimpressive in the UCL. He's known to have issues with the board and cause drama. Usually he is a very short term manager, able to bring success but isn't a long lasting choice. His utilization of youth is few, and he often has clashes. However give him a good team and hell run with it, potentially isn't the right fit for Madrid now.
Marco Rose - Borussia Mönchengladbach 2022
Another exciting name out of Germany. Rose is a manager gaining a lot of attention for his play style and how he's turned Gladbach into consistent European qualifying team. He has a very uplifting personality and clearly knows how to make connections with his players and fans. His time at Salzburg saw some very impressive results, even against their German parent club. Whilst he doesn't have the most renowned playing CV his managerial reputation is growing very quickly. Garnering interest from Dortmund.
His style is similar to Hassanhuttl, energetic press with emphasis on counter attacking or intense vertical passes. He's done well to use youth and turn middling player into a strong team. He usually plays a 4231/4312. Madrid fans will know ho interesting his side can play. He's known to be very tactically astute along wit his staff.
Biggest issues come from how'd he adapt, as well as if this is too big of a step up, which it seems like it is. At 44 y/o he's at that very good age. But he is a manager to keep an eye on.
Gennaro Gattuso - Napoli 2021
Gattuso is a household name of a player, known for being a rough personality, he also tends to be very good with how he manages players. He seems to be one of the better man managers available. He was one of the best managers Milan has had in many years, making them look like a functional team, now at Napoli he's doing pretty good as well, even managing an Italian cup victory last season. His managerial experience isn't much however he seems to do well with big personalities.
His style of play is possession focused however its more flexible and simplified, he prioritizes hard work above anything else. Playing mainly a 433, he likes a very physically imposing striker with all round ability.
At 43 y/o he's beginning to enter a good age range for management. However his lack of experience is worrying, only having 3-4 years of top flight experience. His own kind of personality could potentially have problems with the board or certain players. Even issues with fans if pressure hits him hard enough. However he looks to be available at the end of the season at the time of writing.
Simone Inzaghi - Lazio 2021
Another manager with little experience in management and not the biggest playing CV in relation to Madrid standards. Inzaghi has done very well with his first top flight job, managing Lazio for almost 5 seasons now he's done some very impressive work, turning them into consistent Europa League qualifying team, now potentially a consistent UCL qualifying team. Inzaghi is an outside shout but never-the-less should be on the shortlist.
His preferred formation is a 352, very adaptable style, his team are known to change between a high intense press and a more conservative mid press. His teams know also how to alter between possession and counter attacking football. Inzaghi has gotten the best out of questionable players like Immobile, Luis Alberto and Correa, whilst also turning others in to highly acclaimed stars like SMS. He has won a lot of trophies, though not the most impressive (Super Copas and a Copa) its trophies none-the-less.
His major pitfalls come with his reputation maybe not being high enough, his playstyle being called a bit boring at times as well as its reliance on particularly high quality players. At 44 he's entering a good age rang for coaches. Adaptation could also be an issue on top of patience from the board and fans given his playstyle and pedigree.
Joachim Low - German NT 2022
A manager with probably the largest managing CV of anyone, surely making up for any potential shortcomings in playing. Low has really garnered a lot of praise, but more recently there are question marks over his time in Germany, with his time seemingly coming to an end soon after around 15 years of managing the team.
National team tactics don't usually translate well into club tactics and vice versa, so its unclear how he'd exactly want to play, but he's a very adaptable manger playing many different formations in the past.
His only real downfalls come from how'd he adapt to club football, as well as the language. He's had issues with the German NT recently with his decision to cut out more older players, even if they are performing miles ahead of youth. Its unclear how that'd work for Madrid but it could be either a good thing or a bad one depending on personnel. At 60 he's beginning to potentially age out, but he should definitely be up for consideration.
Gian Piero Gasperini - Atalanta 2022
Another manager whose been making waves in football with his Atalanta side. Gasperini is one of the oldest managers on this list at 62 y/o with plenty of managerial experience, a potential positive but also negative. His team is one of the most breathtaking attacking units in world football, competing with the likes of City and Liverpool for goals and shots. He's turned a relegation battling team into consistent European qualifying team, whilst also producing the most of Italy's national team players as well as other promising youth players.
His style revolves around a 343/3412/3421, high pressing football built around transition using the wings as a big point of attack. There is also a degree of freedom given to certain attackers like Illicic and Gomez, allowing them to move around and create space. Every player seems to be heavily involved in attack in some way.
Biggest issues is Atalanta are known for scoring a lot but have also had there fair share of conceding a lot of goals. Madrid can see more of how they play in the upcoming matchup. Gasperini wasn't too great at other top clubs he's managed so its unclear whether there could be an issue there. Language barrier is a potential problem on top of his age as at 62 y/o he's beginning to age out. He's definitely a gamble but one very much worth taking given the impact he's made.
Massimiliano Allegri - FREE
A manager whose been out of management longer then expected, Allegri has a very large CV of managing top clubs on top of winning a lot and being very competitive. Of all the managers on this list, he's one of the most highly decorated.
His style is a bit more conservative in defense, however it can be very entertaining in attack. Very much about adaptation, given his use of many different systems. He's a winning mentality kind of manager.
Potentially this is his downfall, any other point for Madrid he would've been a perfect acquisition But during a transition where the club needs to build itself up and figure out all of its pieces, it doesn't seem like the right time for Allegri. At 53 y/o he's at a fine age, but language could be an issue. Given his availability, despite his potential issues with boring football and being more about winning then building, he might be worth acquiring if he can get this side and certain players firing.
Maurizio Sarri - FREE
A name most probably don't fancy at Madrid, he's definitely someone who does deserve a spot on the shortlist. Known for making his way up the footballing pyramid, he definitely doesn't have the playing pedigree, however his large managerial pedigree on top of his trophy cabinet might make up for potential issues.
Preferring to play a 433 or a 4312, Sarri is all about possession and positional play, on top of organized pressing. His Napoli team played some of the most attractive football in the world, and saw many players grow in reputation. However it became clear that to play his brand of football effectively, a lot of time is needed to fully integrate the system. Despite this issue he was still successful at Chelsea, and mediocre at Juve.
His shortcomings are clear, his potential issues in play style will definitely detour his acquisition, but if Madrid are in a rebuild this might be a smart play to get him if certain amount of time is afforded. However his biggest downfalls come in his handling of the team, which didn't come off well at Chelsea and Juve, Language is an issue, smoking could be a problem, at 62 y/o he's beginning to age out as well. He definitely deserves a place on the shortlist but his potential pitfalls make him a questionable candidate.
Marcelo Gallardo - River Plate 2021
A big manager in Argentina and South America in general, Gallardo really started making global waves when he was heavily linked to Barcelona. Having a pretty ok playing CV in relation to Madrid, he really has made big waves in coaching with 13 cup wins (including 2 Copa Libertadores) in his 10 years of management.
Preferring to play a 433/4231/4312 he's mainly about possession, pressing and counter attacking football, he is very similar to Naglesmann Vertical attacking football. Considered one of the best managers to come out of South America, and specifically Argentina. He's definitely earned a high reputation, but its unclear ow well it can translate to European football ,especially to a world sized club that Madrid is.
This is on of his major shortcomings, along with potential issues in how his reputations fully translates to European football. However he's at a good age (45 y/o), knows the language, and could potentially work well with Madrid's south American talent. A big contender for the job.
Raul - Castilla
A manager with one of the largest playing CV's for Madrid if not the largest on this list, Raul is a true legend in Madrid, and knowing football nowadays, that's a near guarantee of getting the job. Though he doesn't have anywhere near the other candidates kind of top flight experience hes done well with Castilla's.
His tactical approach isn't too clear to see due to the team he is competing with, however is appears he likes a 4231/433. He has often talked about professionalism and hard work being cornerstones of his philosophy, which isn't surprising for a manger to say. He himself has suggested he needs more experience.
That's his main gripes, his lack of experience may make this a gamble not worth taking at this point in time, if Zidane is sacked mid way then potentially, but come the end of the season, it doesn't seem like a good time for Raul. At 43 y/o he's beginning to enter a good managerial age, he obviously knows the club and league, and will surely introduce youth to the forefront of Madrid. Given the nature of legends taking managerial roles, he definitely deserves a shout, but it may be too soon for a Raul, and Madrid don't want to make a mistake in giving a legend the job too soon when its not necessary.
Guti- FREE
Another highly acclaimed player, Guti is a Madrid legend, potentially making up for his lack of managerial experience. In Madrid's youth setup he did fairly well, before making his way as Besiktas assistant but subsequently got the sacking along with the manager after a season. He then got a big break with a managerial role in Spain's second division. He was also subsequently sacked after 22 games in charge after failing to get Almeria promoted, finishing in a qualification spot but failing against Girona who lost to Elche. As of now he's out of a job.
His style of play isn't too known, the way he setup Almeria isn't indicative too much of how he'd set up Madrid. So its a bit unclear. Potentially a 433/4231/4141. He did improve Almeria's placement in the league, but its been suggested that Almeria's board are very quick to sack managers who don't offer immediate success.
Its unclear how he'd do at Madrid, in a similar case to Raul, potentially coming in halfway through the season makes more sense then coming in during the summer. Though it might be unfair, his unimpressive managerial career definitely will hurt him in the consideration process for now. He's at a good age and knows the league, but unless Zidane gets the midseason sack, it doesn't seem like its the right time to rush Guti into this position. Needs a bit more experience, but given his status he will be on the shortlist.

Shortlist Rankings

TOP 5 (summer)

1. Klopp
2. Gallardo
3. Naglesmann
4. Gasperini
5. Flick
6. Allegri, Erik Ten Hag, Low, Sarri, Inzaghi, Gattuso,

I think Klopp is obviously the most anticipated choice, whether he wants to come, and we can afford to acquire him is still very unknown, however he ticks all the boxes of being suited to Madrid. Gallardo is soon to be available, his pedigree is there, and whilst its a gamble, it seems one very well worth taking at this point in time. Why not Naglesmann? His lack of reputation and experience is very worrying, I see him as a very great manager in the future but Madrid seems like too big of a step up similar to Raul and Guti. Though I still consider him third choice as maybe his ability to manage (especially given Madrid's changing environment) might see him overcome this issues. I put Gasperini in at 4th as he very much seems to suit the short term option that excites and build the team, though I can easily see people wanting Flick as 4th choice given what he's done with Bayern in such a short time, however I think he needs to show a bit more with Bayern before making that jump. He's still an impressive manager though and I think he'd be a better choice then the 6th ranked, who are managers that don't make the final five but are definitely in consideration.
Outside shouts in no particular order are Guti, Raul, Hassenhutle, Nuno, Ole, Rose and Conte. They all didn't make the cut, either because they were of lower quality, need a built more time to manifest, or might have issues with board and players on a big level (Conte).
Top 5 (now)

1. Guti
2. Raul
3. Gallardo
4. Allegri
5. Sarri
6. Nuno, Low, Inzaghi, EtH, Gattuso, Rose

Guti is available to take the helm for a short period of time, its better then Raul whose job at Castilla just began and it could cause issues in trying to plug those holes so rapidly. However he is still second best short term immediate option. Gallardo is third because his contract ends this at the end of the year, meaning he'd cost very little to bring in, as well as River Plates season is ending soon so there would be a big issue for him leaving for Madrid. However if Madrid want him to be the longer term manager bringing him in so soon could be unfair or problematic, with certain expectations and other preconceived notions occurring before he's had a fair summer to integrate with the team. Allegri is fourth, which would be considered strange given he's available for free, however this isn't the right time for him in Madrid. He'd want assurances that cant be given if you come in halfway through the season, especially given his nature as a coach. Sarri is fifth, another manager available for a free, he is fantastic however his handling of players could see problems emerging, he also needs usually a while to implement his style, so halfway through the season doesn't seem too wise but for free its a good gamble given his reputation. The 6th placed are composed of managers outside the top 5 consideration because its either unclear if they'd want to come in at this point, or aren't the right fits for this position at this point in time in comparison to the other candidates.
Outside shouts include in no particular order Klopp, Naglesmann, Hassenhutle, Ole, Conte, Gasperini and Flick. Most if not all of these managers probably wont come in halfway through the season and/or they'd be too expensive for a midseason manager.

Conclusion

What do you guys think? It seems almost certain Zidane is going to lose his job, whenever a manager loses the locker room they almost certainly lose there job unless a miracle happens, which can very certainly be a possibility but its very unlikely. This paper is to help open a general discussion about management and who you guys have for your shortlist. As it stands it seems Madrid are heavily looking at Gallardo and Naglesmann but the situations are all very complicated so who knows who can potentially get the job. This isn't meant to diss Zidane in any way but to merely open up the conversation, because as it stands, the seat will be open either soon (depending on results) or in the summer.

**This is based on some notes I wrote for myself, which I decided to embellish and post here*\*
Firstly, the advice "You'll find love when you stop searching for it" is fundamentally misguided.
Don't get me wrong, I understand the intention behind it.
Focus on yourself and drop the desperation - sounds like solid advice right?
Well as far as I'm concerned it's not enough. It needs the caveat \potentially plausible if you are a friendly looking and approachable individual with a healthy social life who's willing to embrace any opportunities that come your way**
Or the advice 'Just live a life you enjoy and you'll naturally attract someone sooner or later' ... tell that to my previous neighbour who was a manager at a games workshop and spent his free time painting Warhammer 40k miniatures. Unfortunately he wasn't asexual or aromantic, and I did speak to him about this once...he admitted he was lonely and desperate to meet someone but didn't know how... hopefully he has by now but I really wouldn't bet 2 monopoly dollars on it.
The point is don’t blindly follow such misleading advice and expect a relationship to definitely fall into place while you're just doing your thing. You have to be proactive.
As for me - I’m tall and fairly attractive and intelligent, and I've been told I'm fun company, on paper I've got quite a bit going for me. But until about 24 I had almost no ladies in my life at all... because I wouldn’t try to push for anything, I wouldn’t step out of my comfort zone, I'd smile and keep walking, when I was out I was mainly just hanging with friends, my job wasn’t allowing me to meet people... it was as though I thought my dream girl would just turn up knocking on my fucking door because I was a nice friendly guy.
Well the only time a girl ever did she tried to convert me to Catholicism (and she failed).
I got resentful of the 'lucky' guys who seemed to easily manoeuvre their way into relationships. I'd tell myself 'you're better looking, funnier etc than them... why the fuck can't girls notice that?' It didn't dawn on me until more recently how naïve my mindset was.
​
The moral of this story is that yes there is an element of randomness to life, but you can create your own luck.
And luck as we know is when preparation meets opportunity.

The preparation

Involves making yourself the best version of you - which you really should be doing in general:
Spiritually - I hesitate to use this term because I'm atheist, but what I mean is that you must accept that you're somebody who is capable of loving and deserving of love. If not you will sabotage yourself with or without even realising it. Not the 'romantic weekend in the Bahamas to excuse the fact they've been putting work ahead of you' or 'delivering 3 tons of roses to your workplace with a crane' type of love, but the consistent feeling of deeply empathising with somebody.
It need not even be associated with lust - friendships can be based in love - though in the case of romantic sexual relationships there needs to be an element of physical attraction.
Also, morally speaking, strive to act in a way that allows you to hold your head high - treat others as you would wish to be treated, judge people by their intentions not merely their actions, live and let live, yet stand up against things you feel are unjust. This will deliver a deeper sense of confidence in yourself that romantic rejections can't ever scathe.
Physically - exercise routinely for fitness and physique, find a fashion sense and hairstyle that flatters you and your expression, groom and maintain good hygiene - plus any procedures one can afford such dental work, corrective laser eye surgery - don’t ever be ashamed of what you look like but do what you can within reason to look your best.
Remember that a less naturally attractive person who's put effort into these areas will often beat out a more naturally attractive person who hasn't. Make sure you're not portraying an image that doesn't align with who you are though...
Mentally - recognise and address any mental conditions or issues or shortcomings as soon as possible - anxiety, depression being the most common ones - take meds, do CBT with a therapist, whatever it takes to get a handle on it because this can hold you back from everything, and doesn't often just improve on its own terms...unfortunately it's the opposite.
Try to avoid developing a neediness, obsessiveness and/or dependency for others, because that will translate into desperation which is obviously very unattractive. People should be a compliment to your life - another source of happiness. Making somebody the primary or perhaps only source of happiness in your life is like skipping along a knife's edge. If you give them all the power to build you up, you therefore give them the power to break you down. It will always hurt, but learn how to handle rejection gracefully. All forms of rejection.
Personally and Socially - Work on improving your social skills (they're skills after all...nobody is born with them), gaining general knowledge so you can contribute more to conversation, watch some stand up comedy and take some improv class to help hone your wit and humour, hang around positive people, cultivate your passions and interests and don’t be afraid to let the world know about them, try to make less presumptions and have more experiences. Learn to be unapologetically yourself, and accept that not everybody is going to like you, just as you don't like everybody you meet.
Occupationally - pursue something you have some degree of passion in OR at least just take your work responsibilities seriously. Even in the age of fuck capitalism there’s nothing attractive about a long term unemployed person. Plus we are hardwired to feel fulfilled when working and contributing - even if those contributions seem insignificant to us and wider society.
Just starting at a retail job helped to pull me out of a depression not long ago (ironically)
Financially - you don’t need to have huge amounts of wealth or possessions, obviously, but proving that you’re fairly stable and prudent with your finances is attractive and beneficial for your life in general.
​
This is all well and good but you could spend a million years improving yourself and get nowhere closer to meeting somebody without the catalyst...
​

The opportunity

Despite the connotations of the word, this is a proactive process.
It involves putting yourself in situations conducive to meeting people;
- Bars and clubs (not my favourite places at all but occasionally on the right night with the right mood they can be great places for meeting people)
- Social events (parties, festivals, fairs, local community events etc)
- Volunteering
- Your Workplace (a bit risky of course - depends on the size and nature of the workplace and the maturity level of the people involved)
- Picking up part time jobs in bars etc
- Smiling and chatting to people when you’re out and about
- Travelling (when it's allowed again)
- Swallowing your pride and asking friends if they know anyone they could set you up on a date with
- Clubs and interest groups
- Dating/singles events
- Dating apps (especially Hinge)
- Web forums and communities and so on.
Saying yes to more experiences and making less negative assumptions.
Yeah, theoretically your teacher could pair you up with someone you instantly click with in first year university (or even high school) and end up marrying them - that's actually how my cousins parents met. But even that requires you to embrace the opportunity that's presented to you. If you're anything like I was for most my life, you probably wouldn't even do that much.
_________________________________________
Always be open to meeting people.
Even if you're in the 'preparation' stage and you have no confidence in yourself, trying to bulk up, get some anxiety under control etc you should still be open to meeting people.
The only cases where I wouldn't recommend it is if you're literally being treated for schizophrenia or overcoming a debilitating injury or trauma - which you don't wish to burden upon anyone for the time being - which I think is reasonable. But believe me, there would be someone out there who would gladly accept whatever you have to offer and vice versa. And you'll never stand a chance of meeting them if you don't believe it.
Digression I: We're a social creature and libidinous lifeform - expecting to feel complete in life, in the absence of romance or intimacy, can be very challenging if not impossible for the vast majority of us. It's ok to feel lonely being single. It's ok to feel a void that only a romantic relationship could fill. That's not a pathetic mark of insecurity. Think about it...why would mother nature actually want us to feel fulfilled before we've done our duty of procreating and raising children? That would be counterproductive to the continuation of the species.
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Start searching today
I'm not telling you to cancel dinner with your grandparents, call your single friends and start stalking the nightclubs this evening with some canned pickup lines and a packet of Rohypnol. But be open to meeting people 24/7 and start forcing yourself to get out there when there's no good reason not to.
As Napoleon probably didn't even say 'Don't wait. The time will never be just right' ... I interpret that as meaning the time is always right.
You can't wait to emerge from some 10 year long cocoon of self improvement before you spread your wings- then you'll be 10 years behind and that will be weighing on your mind as well. Trust me, I fell down the self help trap for years and I still do occasionally.
You can still be improving yourself whilst approaching people, whilst dating, whilst in a relationship - in fact you would be foolish not to, and having someone to keep you accountable can actually help.
After all, life is a continuous sequence of failure, reflection, and self improvement, or at least that's how I like to look at it.
​
Approaching and Courtship
I'm not even ashamed to admit that I've perused hundreds of 'pick up artist' articles and videos in an attempt to optimize my success rate.
Ironically the deeper I dove into it, the more I began to realise that there is no silver bullet. No panacea. No magic phrase or move that will win the heart of whoever you're pursuing. If there were there wouldn't be hundreds of articles to peruse in the first place.
Digression II: If you truly just want a one night stand or NSA arrangement (and there's nothing wrong with that as long as you're upfront about it and don't deliberately mislead) there are some courtship exploits you can roll out; pick your venues strategically, put on some bravado, push and pull, go hot and cold, disqualify them, give them shit tests, talk to attractive friends of the opposite sex to invoke some social proof and jealousy, set false time constraints, escalate the conversation verbally to more risqué topics, deliberately misinterpret things sexually, escalate physical touch, the finger length game, move them to various venues or areas within a venue to help build a narrative, involve alcohol and social lubricants, put shit like 'I'll grab the first round if you buy breakfast' etc in your bio. Of course, these won't work on everyone and you risk getting a drink thrown in your face.
Also worth mentioning that healthy long-term relationships can of course begin with a moment of infatuation when your bloodshot eyes spot a prepossessing pair of legs in a dirty shithole dive bar at 3am...they don't need to begin with some magisterial Romeo and Juliet moment.
That's not what this post is about though. If you're looking for something long-term, the mindset is a bit simpler;
Be the best version of yourself, and know your worth.
If you're growing into somebody you love, you shouldn't feel like you're inconveniencing someone by approaching or dating them. You're giving them the opportunity to meet somebody great. Would you be nervous to walk up and hand some attractive stranger a $10,000 cheque? I don't love that analogy because there's some arrogance to it, but it's an interesting thought.
That's not to say you shouldn't ever reflect on how you're projecting yourself - negative feedback (rejection) should always be interpreted constructively. If you're being called a creep consistently, you need to stand back and try to figure out where you're misrepresenting yourself. Perhaps consider waiting until you get home before you start masturbating for instance.
Digression III: If you're pursuing someone you plan to spend your foreseeable future with, it's not in your best interest to put on any facades. The moment you apply a façade you've lost - for if they respond positively to your façade you lose confidence in who you are underneath it, if they don't - well perhaps they may have responded positively if you were more earnest about who you are. So be transparent with your feelings and clear with your communications. The Dr Seuss adage comes to mind "Be who you are and say what you feel; those who matter won't mind, and those who mind don't matter". At least in the context of romantic relationships.
If our cheery friend Nietzsche was right about one thing it's that marriages/long-term relationships fail not due to a lack of love (lust) but a lack of friendship. It's imperative.
Remember; love is expressed through consistency NOT intensity.
Digression IV: Start to see people for who they are, not for what you want them to be. The latter is not fair on either person. I can't emphasise this point enough (without bolding it which would fuck up the format). I'm the guiltiest of this. I would catch myself daydreaming about girls I knew who were in relationships with close friends. I would catch myself having reveries about people I knew weren't interested in me. I would even catch myself fantasying about somebody I just swiped on, so when we never matched it felt like a kick in the guts. It's nice (and natural) to fantasy about things - that's what the lottery, gambling, even travel industries are founded on - but it absolutely drains your time and energy and the road leads only to disappointment.
​
________________________
How do you even know when you've found love?
Digression V: A curious phenomena of humankind is that we generally want what we can't have. Once we have it, or know that we can, we no longer want it. So we don't often truly want it, we just want the satisfaction of attaining that which we couldn't have. You must be cognizant of this in the realm of romantic relationships, because it can cause you to throw away what you have in order to chase after what you have not - in an endless self destructive cycle. Learn the difference between truly growing apart from someone versus simply losing the novelty and infatuation associated with the incipient stages of a relationship, which is inevitable - even your dream partner will lose some of their lustre sooner or later. This is paraphrasing one of Epicurus' meditations so you know it's good shit.
As unromantic as it sounds, love isn't magical, despite how it may feel at the time...it's neurochemistry... oxytocin, serotonin, dopamine, vasopressin etc.
We all have hundreds of thousands, if not millions of 'soulmates' out there.
For me they are;
- Somebody whom you feel comfortable being unapologetically yourself around
- Somebody whom you genuinely enjoy spending your time with (of course there will be natural ups and downs)
- Somebody whom you genuinely want the best for...for their sake not yours
- Somebody who you're physically attracted to (as much as possible)
And yes you can have all these things and still grow apart from someone. Or find out they've been sleeping with your best friend. That's life.
It's better to have loved and lost than never loved at all.
________________________
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Edit: I just made this even longer
Edit 2: I just made it slightly longer again

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

Hello!
Here is a video from the indian guru Sadhguru:
just type this on youtube:
(Sadhguru Speaks On Role Of Celibacy For Personal Growth)
Here is a text from the book 'The Philosophy of Natural Therapeutics' by Henry Lindlar. A tad CONTROVERSIAL ok? keep an open mind. It's fine, you don't have to beleive everything that's in here, it's just words. You can call him a pseudo-scientist or a moron all you want, he's probably dead by now anyway. Go ahead and call me an idiot for beleiving too if you are so inclined. Here we go...
Onanism and Masturbation -
"Undoubtebly one of the most serious leaks of vital force is created through onanism or masturbation. This destructive habit is frightfullu common among those who can least affort it, namely young people and children who need thair vital energies for the upbuilding of their physical organism and for the development of their mental, imaginative and creative faculties, capacities and powers. There is a close relationship between genius and virility. Positivity on all planes of being depends largely upon sexual virility. Therefore the wastefull expenditure of sex fluid and sex life stunts growth and development in all directions. It lowers resistance to physical disease and creates negative conditions on the mental, moral and spiritual planes of being which may lead to serious mental and psychical disorders.
The main reason why this body and soul destroying habit is so common among those of tender age is because the subject, like that of venereal diseases, is too much avoided in discussions and instruction in the school, church and home. The topic is taboo especially among those who pride themselves on their education and refinement.
In view of the untold harm done by this foolish avoidance and concelment of a vital problem, religious intructors, teachers, parents and physicians should learn how to deal properly with this delicate but vital phase of child life. Therefore the free discussion of the subject should be encouraged among those most deeply concerned and in health culture literature.
The fault lies primarily with those of the medical profession who teach our young men that free indulgence of sexual passion is not only legitimate but necessary for many vigor.
This dictum of pseudo sience is almost universally concurred in by spiritual guardians and other teachers. No more pernicious falsehoold was ever prmulgated from the abyss of Hades. If our young men were taught that greater happiness is attained by the exchange of tender affection than by 'the indulgence of the coarser animal appetites and that the creative forces thus preserved develop and strengthen their finest capacities of body, mind and soul they would be wise as well as chivalrous in protecting mother and child and in conserving their own moral integrity.
Many a man whom we have thus advised has become a lifelong friend in consequence. In no other way is it possible to call forth the deepest gratitude and unfailing esteem of a true woman.
Young men should be made aware that in this regard as well as in other habits desire grows in exact ratio to indulgence, and that though sucj indulgence he who should be the master becomes the abject slave. This is true of overeating, drinking, gambling and drugging as well as of the habits under discussion.
Before leaving this delicate but highly important subject I wish to call attention to one phase of it which I occasionally meet in my professional work. Now and then a woman confides to me that the real cause of her physical, nervous and mental ailments lies in excessive intercourse; that this produces loathing and revulsion which she dares not reveal to her husband, being afraid that she might disappoint and offend him.
On several occasions I have taken it upon myself, without knowledge of the patient, to have a confidential talk with the husband and to apprise him of the situation.
In every instance the mand expresed great surprise and regret for having in his ignorance caused such suffering and anguish of mind. His reply would be somewhat as follows: 'I was under the impression that her desire was as strong as mine and often thought it necessary to her. I will cheerfully exercise self control for her sake as well as my own." In several instances understanding and confidence established in this way between husband and wife have transformed a very unhappy relationship into perfect and affectionate harmony.
What a commentary upon a system which permits people to enter upon a relationship of such vital importance in total ignorance of its fundamental laws!
What a curious revelation of the workings of the human mind and heart in love and marriage! Ignorance as well as excessive delicacy and hypersensitiveness prevent many well-intentioned people from establishing a thorough understanding concerning this intimate relationship. This leads to much unnecessary suffering, unhappiness and anguish of spirit which easily be avoided by a freer and more sympathetic exchange of conjugal confidence.
Among the animals copulation does not take place except for reproduction. While I am not prepared to take the extreme stand that this should be the ironclad rule in the human family, still continence is certainly to be desired, and self mastery will enhance true conjugal affection and love instead of diminishing or destroying it.
Few men are aware of the fact that the normally constituted woman craves affection and kindly consideration rather than sexual indulgence.
Many men, afraid of real or imaginary weakness, remais single because they have a false idea of the sexual demans of woman. A free and confidential understanding in regard to these matters between those who contemplate matrimony would frequently prevent marital unhappiness."
Here's are some lyrics to a heavy metal song I like called "God Damn".
"Hey! Can't you see we're tripping on the wire
Walking through the candy land of our desires
Press the magic button and behold the world you crave
Where's the fun in freedom when it renders you a slave?"
C.S Lewis, author of "The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe". Here are his views on masturbation:
(just google C.S Lewis on pornography and masturbation.)

I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example.
​
First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500.
Second, let’s make an important distinction:
Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for.
Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there.
Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop.
Determining the intrinsic value of an asset
The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead.
Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.”
PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n}
PV = present value
C = cash flow per period
n = number of payments
i = interest rate
G = growth rate
The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate.
C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS.
The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters.
I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years).
I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%.
This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence.
Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar!
I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down.
Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%.
So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds).
Due diligence still has to occur
Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company:
-Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion.
-What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here.
-What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company.
-Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut.
-Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great.
-Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break.
So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in.
Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out.
You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value.
You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them.
A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are.
Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely
That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history.
If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts.
Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations.
I am available for questions in the comments

First post...be kind! This happened way back in the dark ages, 1986. I was 21 at the time and working for a gas station that was associated with a certain grocery store chain in Washington state. It was owned by a company not affiliated with said chain, but had locations at nearly every one.
As this was long before the days of debit cards, this was a cash only gas station. We didn’t even take credit cards. Customers would pull up, pump their gas and then come to my window to pay. We also sold cigarettes. No drinks, no snacks...customers couldn’t even get into my booth. I had been working there about a year when the company announced it was closing the location. My manager and I were offered positions at another location upstate and we both accepted. We moved our respective families and started our new jobs. As new hires (ugh).
This station was incredible busy. We did more business in 8 hrs than my old location would do in a week. This location also had a different set up: here you would pull into the station from a single entrance, pump your gas, and then drive forward to a single exit where the “Pay Here” booth was located. There were always 2 cashiers on duty. Each cashier had a cash drawer.
One thing I should note, there were also no computers. So closing the drawer down between shifts was timing consuming and tedious. We had to manually count the cigarettes remaining, and count the cash drawers. We would fill out an end of shift report listing the starting balances and the ending balances. We also had to list the gallons sold from each pump. At the end of the shift the total of gallons sold and the total cigarettes sold should equal the cash balance. It is important to note here that not once in the year I had worked for the previous location had I been off by more than 10 cents.
The following morning after my first shift I was informed by the manager that I was short $50. Impossible I said, I balanced out yesterday. He said that I must have stolen that money after I had completed the paperwork. I just looked at him and said, no I didn’t. He gave me a verbal warning and said if it happened again I would be fired and the stolen money would be deducted from my paycheck this week.
In the 5 days that followed I realized quickly the manager was up to something. My old manager who was just another worker now, was also accused of stealing. As was one other new employee. I can’t vouch for the other employee but I’m pretty sure she did nothing wrong. The employees that had been there awhile were never accused of anything. I did some checking and found out this manager was relatively new (had only been there about 6 months) and the other cashiers had been here before him. Only new cashiers were being accused of stealing. And that location had been having “stealing problems” for about 6 months and the turnover was high with the new employees.
I came to work at 6am on a Monday only to be told I was being fired. For cause. The manager accused me of taking $500 out of my drawer the previous Friday. He said he only discovered it this morning (even though he had worked Sat and Sun). I said ok and left. I was pretty angry and instead of going home, I parked in the grocery store parking lot and proceed to settle in to watch the gas station. I knew that at 9am sharp, he would take the cash in the safe and make the weekend deposit. At 9am he left the gas station and headed to the bank. But instead of walking into the bank, he walked into the Indian “casino” next door. It’s not really a casino like we think of today, but more of a betting parlor for the races. It did have slot machines, but no card tables.
I think “Well, this is interesting”.
He comes out of the casino at exactly 10 am, walks next door to the bank, does his business and then heads back to the gas station. I head home with a plan.
Every morning I follow him from the gas station to the casino. I take a picture of him leaving, and one of him arriving at the bank and walking into the casino. I take pictures of him coming out and then heading to the bank. I do this for 5 days straight. He even went on Saturday. On day 3 my old manager was fired for “stealing” $150.
I get the film developed (no digital camera in the dark ages) note the times and dates on the back of each one. Then I call the main office of the gas company. It’s after 5 but I’m hoping someone is there. And there is. I speak to a woman and explain my situation and she says she knows exactly who I should speak to and transfers me. By some grace of God, she has transferred me to none other than the President/CEO of the company!
I tell him my story and tell him I did NOT steal from his company and could prove who actually did. He took down my information and said he would be in touch. I’m thinking to myself “yeah right”. The next morning I went to the station to perform my usual observation of the manager. At 9am he leaves for the “bank”. At 10 am he comes out. At that moment 2 stern looking gentlemen approach him. One pulls out his wallet and shows him something. The other one is talking. The manager goes pale and takes a step back. Next thing I know he is being escorted to a car I hadn’t noticed and they drive off. I lose them at a traffic signal so I head back to the station. They all show back up about 5 min later, and a few minutes after that a police cruiser pulls in. The officer talks to the stern gentleman and proceeds to place the manager in handcuffs. The other man says nothing but is glaring daggers at the manager.
The President called me later that after noon and informed me that the manager had been arrested for embezzlement (turns out that in 6 months he had managed to steal about $5k). He would take the store cash into the casino and gamble with it; if he won, he would make the normal bank deposit. If he lost, he would make the deposit and note in his records that we had been short the previous day. The CEO had already been focusing on that location because of the stealing and high turnover rate, but my information helped them figure out what exactly had been going on.
I was thanked and sent a substantial check as a reward. My old manager was offered the manager’s job and I was offered my old job back. I declined as I had already found another job that I liked more and paid better. The gambling manager was sentenced to 1 year in jail and ordered to attend counseling for his gambling addiction. His wife divorced him and took their 3 children to California. His house was foreclosed on and he ended up in a homeless shelter.
Don’t accuse me of stealing. I will get revenge.
** UPDATE**
Thank you for the likes and awards!
Update 2: this was my first post and I really didn’t expect all the awards. Thank you!